Series Preview: Pivotal Stretch Kicks Off in San Diego

The New York Mets (66-61) are about to embark on their most important road trip of the season. Entering tonight, they sit 3.5 games behind the third Wild Card spot, occupied by the Atlanta Braves. The San Diego Padres (72-56) are next up on the schedule, and the Mets will see the best version of them. In the second half, the Padres are a league-best 22-7. The Mets will be put to the test as they look to make a move in their purist of a postseason bid. Let’s take a look at some important notes ahead of the four pitching matchups.

Thursday, August 22, 2024: RHP Luis Severino (8-6, 3.91 ERA) vs. RHP Dylan Cease (12-9, 3.46 ERA)

Luis Severino needed a big start in the worst way possible and he got one against the Miami Marlins last weekend. Severino threw a complete game shutout for the second time in his career, helping the Mets to a 4-0 win. Entering that start, Severino had a 6.19 ERA in his previous seven appearances. Huge confidence booster. The right-hander rediscovering his confidence could go a long way down the stretch. Severino’s first and only start against the Padres came in May of 2023, allowing one earned run over 6 2/3 innings.

Dylan Cease has been one of the standout performers in the Padres rotation this season. With Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove spending a ton of time on the sidelines, the former Chicago White Sox has stepped in as the team’s ace and thrived. That being said, his worst start of the season came against the Mets back on June 16. Cease allowed seven runs on seven hits over 3 2/3 innings, giving up home runs to Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso. The right-hander poses a big threat, as he owns a 3.17 ERA in 11 home starts this season.

Friday, August 23, 2024: RHP Paul Blackburn (5-3, 4.19 ERA) vs. RHP Joe Musgrove (3-4, 4.97 ERA)

Paul Blackburn had his first setback as a Met against the Oakland Athletics, but it didn’t take him long to respond. Blackburn threw six innings of one-run ball on Sunday, striking out four in 92 pitches. The Marlins went on to win the game 3-2. Still, the right-hander did exactly what he had hoped for. Blackburn is 1-1 with a 3.68 ERA in four starts with the Mets, a solid stat line. As a backend starter, that is all you can ask for. Blackburn has struggled away from home this season, pitching to a 5.59 ERA in seven road starts.

Joe Musgrove is a name many Mets fans are familiar, most notably for his performance against the team in the 2022 Wild Card series. He missed all of June and July with an elbow injury. In two starts since coming off the injured list, Musgrove is 0-0 with a 1.04 ERA in 8 2/3 innings. The Padres have eased him in, throwing just 63 and 73 pitches in those outings. Whether or not that number increases will be a topic of conversation on Friday. Musgrove is 2-5 with a 4.84 ERA in seven career appearances (six starts) against the Mets.

Saturday, August 24, 2024: LHP David Peterson (7-1, 3.00 ERA) vs. RHP Michael King (11-6, 3.18 ERA)

Where would the Mets be without David Peterson? The left-hander is enjoying the best season of his career to date, allowing two runs or less in 12 of 14 starts. Peterson is coming off a fantastic performance, throwing a season-high seven innings against the Orioles on Monday. He was close to getting through the seventh inning with no additional damage, but a balk followed by a home run slightly tainted his outing. Peterson has yet to beat the Padres on three attempts, pitching to a 4.50 ERA in 12 innings.

Michael King has made the transition from reliever to starter look quite easy. The former New York Yankee has been invaluable for the Padres, pitching to a 2.39 ERA since the start of June. His strikeouts numbers have remained the same, despite throwing far more innings. King is sitting at 10.6 strikeouts per nine. Last season, as a reliever, he had 10.9 strikeouts per nine. King uses four pitches at least 18% of the time: a sinker, changeup, four-seam fastball and a sweeper. This will be his second career start against the Mets.

Sunday, August 25, 2024: LHP José Quintana (6-9, 4.57 ERA) vs. LHP Martín Pérez (3-5, 4.67 ERA)

José Quintana is in the midst of a very difficult stretch after performing so well throughout the month of July. Over his last four starts, he is 0-3 with a 8.27 ERA. Tuesday’s start against the Orioles was bad from start to finish. Quintana allowed a first-inning home run to Anthony Santander and never really recovered. His final line was five innings pitched, seven runs, eight hits, three walks and seven strikeouts. Quintana will try to get back on track Sunday, facing a team in the Padres who he is 3-0 (six starts) against in his career.

The Padres made a few big splashes at the trade deadline, resulting in Martín Pérez’s impact going under the radar. In four starts with his new team, the veteran left-hander is 1-0 with a 2.74 ERA in 23 innings. Walks were an issue for him earlier in the season, but not as of late. Pérez went from 3.5 walks per nine with the Pittsburgh Pirates to 1.6 walks per nine with the Padres. His sinker reaches an average velocity of 91 mph, so he won’t be overpowering. Pérez is 4-0 with a 3.15 ERA in nine career appearances against the Mets.

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