Reed Garrett Struggling To Meet Early Season Expectations

After being claimed off waivers from Baltimore last season, Reed Garrett seemed destined to fade into the background of a constantly changing bullpen. He was optioned to Triple-A Syracuse before this season, reinforcing the idea that he might not stand out.

However, when he was recalled to the majors on April 1, Garrett’s performance took a surprising turn as he became nearly unhittable. Before an injury in July, he posted a 7-3 record with a 3.64 ERA, 63 strikeouts in 42 innings, four saves, and eight holds, earning the trust of manager Carlos Mendoza. Garrett even stepped up during Edwin Díaz‘s 10-game suspension.

His most impressive run came between April 4 and May 19 when he went 5-0 with two saves, four holds, two earned runs, 11 walks and 41 strikeouts in just 25 innings of work. His ERA was an insane 0.72 with an xFIP of 2.41. Simply put, he was one of the best relief pitchers in baseball during this stretch.

Garrett’s success appeared to stem from adjustments made in the offseason. He relied on two types of sliders—a hard gyro slider that acts like a cutter and a slower, sweeping slider with more movement—which confused hitters and led to many strikes. His improved splitter further bolstered his arsenal, while his fastball, despite its 97 mph velocity, was used sparingly due to control issues. For reference, according to Baseball Savant, Garrett used his fastball 49.5% of the time in 2022, 31.7% in 2023 and just 16% so far in 2024.

However, since his early-season success, Garrett’s performance has become inconsistent. In Sunday’s game against the Marlins, he walked three batters in the bottom of the eighth, leading to a go-ahead run. Phil Maton gave up the hit to break the tie, but Garrett earned the run.

Recently, he gave up two runs on three hits in a loss to the Athletics and has a 9.00 ERA over his last seven games. Garrett’s performance has declined, raising questions about whether the injury lingered enough beforehand to question his ability to pitch effectively. His ERA over the last 15 games before the injury was 5.79, with 14 hits, nine earned runs, and 10 walks.

Interestingly, Baseball Savant reveals that despite using his four-seam fastball less frequently this year, hitters are still hitting .407 against it when he does throw it. His cutter isn’t faring much better, as he uses it 23.4% of the time, yet opponents are hitting .306 against it. This lack of effectiveness with these pitches has been problematic, especially when he struggles to get hitters to chase his other offerings, like his split-finger pitch, his most reliable weapon, holding batters to just a .136 average.

Walks have plagued Garrett and the Mets bullpen this season. While he’s in the 99th and 98th percentiles in whiff and strikeout percentages, he’s in just the fourth percentile in walk percentage at 13.%.

The Mets, whose bullpen needs all the help it can get, will have to see if Garrett can make the necessary adjustments to regain his early-season form. Garrett’s inconsistency and struggles align with the somewhat lackluster showings of Ryne Stanek and Huascar Brazobán.

While Stearns was able to acquire help for the pen alongside the emergence of Jose Butto as a force on the back end, the Mets will need any help they can get. Garrett has the skill to be a top reliever for this team, but the question remains if he can make the adjustments needed to return to his earlier season dominance.

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