Royals’ bad luck in draft lottery propelled team forward

No team’s had worse luck in the draft lottery than the Royals, but it hasn’t shown on the field.

On the evening of July 26, 2024, the Kansas City Royals surpassed their 2023 win total.

The turnaround has been nothing short of remarkable. The Royals are in the thick of the playoff hunt for the first time in years. The team is 5 back in the Central while 1.5 games back of the Twins for the second Wild Card and 1.5, up on the Red Sox for the last spot.

What makes the turnaround even more incredible is that the team is doing this while having the worst luck in the Majors when it comes to the new draft lottery system.

Up until the 2023 Draft, the Majors went in reverse order of the standings for determining when a team selects in the first round of the draft. But starting with that 2023 Draft, a lottery was implemented. Numerous changes were implemented, but the biggest was this: the draft no longer went in reverse order for the first round.

In 2022, the Royals finished with the fifth-worst record in the majors. They ended up with the No. 8 overall pick for the 2023 draft.

In 2023, the Royals finished with the second-worst record in the majors. They ended up with the No. 6 overall pick for the 2024 draft.

Look at it like this: for the 2023 draft, the Royals lost three spots; for the 2024 draft, the Royals lost four spots. So in total for the first two drafts of the Draft Lottery Era, the Royals lost seven spots.

That’s unlucky. That’s misfortune.

No team has been more unlucky. (The Athletics have been as unlucky.)

Yet, the team hasn’t let this lottery misfortune hamper them. Instead, it’s been quite the opposite.

Losing out on two straight top-five picks—and the chance to draft the likes of Walker Jenkins in 2023 and Charlie Condon, Hagen Smith, and Nick Kurtz in 2024, all of whom are ranked in Keith Law’s top 60 MLB Prospects, ahead of the Royals’ selections—forced the front office’s hand into helping the team by spending more on veterans.

And it’s worked.

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The addition of players like Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Hunter Renfroe, to name but three, have propelled the Royals into contention.

Of course, it helps that the Royals already drafted a budding superstar in Bobby Witt Jr. And Salvador Perez, the bridge from the 2015 World Series squad, remains.

But it took some selling for those two to remain. At least three teams have inquired about Perez in the past year while Witt could’ve forced the team’s hand by refusing to sign an extension.

Sell them the Royals did: Perez is still here and continues to rake while Witt has blossomed into one of the best and most exciting players in the league.

Then came the next part: adding at the deadline. The Royals acquired reliever Hunter Harvey from the Nationals earlier in July before adding more right before the deadline: swing pitcher Michael Lorenzen from the Rangers, relief pitcher Luas Erceg (controllable until 2030!) from the Athletics, and infielder Paul DeJong from the Pale Hose.

Perhaps just as importantly, the Royals made those four deals without surrendering any of their top prospects.

Next up: addressing remaining needs in the offseason plus other decisions, like possible extensions for Cole Ragans and Brady Singer; the mutual option for Adam Frazier*; and making decisions based on Renfroe and Wacha’s respective decisions with their player options.

*Okay, maybe that’s not much of a decision.

However, for the first time in a long time, maybe since not overthinking the decision to draft Bobby Witt Jr. second overall in 2019, the Royals front office deserves faith.

They’ve locked up a superstar.

They’ve kept a potential Hall-of-Famer.

They’ve brought in veterans that have spurred the team forward.

They’ve dealt for two relievers and infield depth.

They’ve cut players who haven’t worked out.

They’ve not let bad luck in the lottery hold them back. Instead, they’ve done the opposite. It’s pretty easy to envision this team lucking into the likes of Paul Skenes and Condon and then manipulating service time requirements before attempting to compete.

With their lottery misfortune, though, that wasn’t option.

And now the Royals are once again a winner.