Athletics Prospects: Colby Thomas hits two home runs

Thomas showed off the power on Tuesday with 12 total bases for the Aviators

There is going to be a bit of a new look to the system soon, with trades and pitching promotions rearranging rotations throughout the Oakland Athletics system. The top of the system steadily improves in depth, and at Triple-A two stand outs from last week are starting to make their cases. Most notably Joe Boyle has started to throw strikes again, and he is obliterating Triple-A lineups in July.

Las Vegas Aviators

Record: 50-51, 13-13 2nd half, 4th in PCL West (5 GB)

Season stats

• Joe Boyle - 27 ⅔ IP, 7.16 ERA, 22.5% BB, 31.8% K, 3 HR, 5.67 FIP
• Logan Davidson - 51 G, 195 PA, 6 HR, 8.2% BB, 35.9% K, .270/.344/.460, 96 wRC+
• JT Ginn - 54 IP, 6.33 ERA, 10.3% BB, 21.0% K, 9 HR, 5.84 FIP
• Darell Hernaiz - 13 G, 51 PA, 1 HR, 11.8% BB, 15.7% K, .273/.353/.432, 95 wRC+
• Max Muncy - 30 G, 122 PA, 3 HR, 7.4% BB, 26.2% K, .245/.336/.396, 84 wRC+
• Colby Thomas - 31 G, 137 PA, 5 HR, 7.3% BB, 27.0% K, .287/.365/.508, 115 wRC+

Top Performers

Joe Boyle’s run of success continued with another dominant start Friday, as he put up a season-high nine strikeouts while walking two (or fewer) batters for the third straight game. It’s been pure dominance over a three game stretch with a 48.9% strikeout rate and 2.40 FIP, and there is no real secret as to how he is doing it. Boyle is just laying his fastball in the zone and expecting the quality of the pitch to do the work for him and it has done just that. Boyle has thrown 50+ % of his fastballs in the zone over those past three starts — something he didn’t do in any prior outing — so it’s not surprise why it’s been working and why Triple-A hitters can’t do anything with it. When he was having success at the major league level last season his zone rate on fastballs was over 50% and dropped down to 45.5% in his seven starts this year. Boyle’s fastball and slider are so good he can get away with it even at the major league level, though it does limit the effectiveness of any fastball if it’s not commanded somewhat.

Colby Thomas joined the group of players to have big games after I compiled their stat lines, going yard twice on Tuesday to break out of what has been a tough period for him. He is slowly bringing down his whiff rates on pitches in the zone and hitting the ball harder as the weeks progress, there has just definitely been an adjustment period for him handling Triple-A pitching. When he is on though he can really put on a show, with last night’s game also featuring a couple of doubles and three batted balls over 106 mph. The chase rates are still scary, but it does seem like he’ll make enough contact in the zone to reverse his fortunes a bit and start bringing down his strikeout rate. Darell Hernaiz hasn’t quite looked as good as hoped as he’s struggling right now on non-fastballs. His approach on breaking balls has always been a bit of a question mark in his profile, and while he has made a lot of contact and hit fastballs relatively hard he is being beaten consistently on those secondary offerings.

The two players that have really struggled are Logan Davidson and Max Muncy, and both for the same reason. They are swinging and missing at an extremely high rate right now, and it’s not even a matter of chasing out of the zone or certain pitch types but rather a universal struggle to make contact. Muncy I can give a break here — he’s still getting his timing back from the long injured list stint and is so young for the level that adjusting to this quality of pitching is taking time. Muncy has been exactly what we thought he would be. His tendency to sell for pull side power has him absolutely dominating on pitches middle-in, hitting for both contact and power, but any time a pitcher puts anything away from him he just can’t reach it. It’s going to take some approach and swing adjustments to really maximize his contact there but it can be done. The most obvious example I have for this is Dansby Swanson, who had a similar swing approach and took years to figure out how to handle anything on the outer third (and still somewhat struggles). Muncy is younger than Swanson was when he debuted and hopefully can figure things out sooner than Swanson did. The physical traits are too good to ignore — he has the bat speed, the barrel control, and the quick wrists to handle velocity on the inner half — he just has to find a balance in his approach to not get completely dominated on the outer half.

Midland Rockhounds

Record: 58-38, 18-9 2nd half, 1st TL South, (+2 G)

Season stats

• Henry Bolte - 19 G, 88 PA, 1 HR, 11.4% BB, 35.2% K, .234/.330/.338, 92 wRC+
• Cooper Bowman - 80 G, 371 PA, 12 HR, 12.4% BB, 20.2% K, .281/.378/.466, 135 wRC+
• Brayan Buelvas - 8 G, 33 PA, 0 HR, 3.0% BB, 30.3% K, .250/.273/.344, 70 wRC+
• Denzel Clarke - 77 G, 309 PA, 11 HR, 5.8% BB, 32.7% K, .257/.314/.465, 113 wRC+
• Ryan Cusick - 37 ⅓ IP, 5.54 ERA, 13.2% BB, 24.0% K, 4 HR, 4.90 FIP
• James Gonzalez - 65 IP, 4.15 ERA, 8.6% BB, 20.9% K, 3 HR, 3.50 FIP
• Gunnar Hoglund - 104 ⅔ IP, 2.84 ERA, 6.5% BB, 23.4% K, 12 HR, 4.10 FIP
• Brennan Milone - 88 G, 378 PA, 10 HR, 10.3% BB, 22.2% K, .275/.357/.426, 120 wRC+
• Jack Perkins - 28 IP, 4.82 ERA, 14.0% BB, 31.0% K, 1 HR, 3.56 FIP
• Daniel Susac - 60 G, 254 PA, 7 HR, 4.7% BB, 25.2% K, .298/.339/.464, 120 wRC+

Top Performers

Gunnar Hoglund had one more strong start left in him before earning a promotion to Triple-A, giving the Rockhounds six scoreless innings in his final Double-A start. Despite a lot of skepticism going into the season Hoglund has slowly improved his entire pitch mix, locating better and showing a bit better shape in each start as he has worked back into a rhythm. The PCL will be a major test for him because of his tendency to leave fastballs over the plate and give up home runs, but it’s certainly due for him to get above Double-A hitters who had trouble with Hoglund’s ability to sequence and locate a handful of pitches at an advanced level.

Jack Perkins put up a 10 strikeout outing on Sunday with no walks, both numbers that certainly feel promising for Perkins as command over his past few starts has been an issue. Still he gave up four runs and it felt like he was going for more zone-filling over trying to command the edges of the zone. Perkins got a ton of called strikes, but also gave up quite a bit of contact and wasn’t missing bats quite at the same rate as even in some lower strikeout games. Perkins seems to be working through exactly how to gear his approach to maximize his pitches, and it’s hard to be too negative on a guy who continues to rack up strikeouts. Perkins is probably a year or more away from really being ready from a command standpoint, but his raw stuff has looked very good and I’m excited for his future with the organization.

This is the first time Denzel Clarke has had a bad week in awhile, and really outside of Cooper Bowman’s two home run game on Tuesday the San Antonio Missions (who lead the lead in K rate in July) largely held Midland’s top prospects in check. Henry Bolte and the newly promoted Brayan Buelvas both struggled to make any sort of contact, though in last night’s game Buelvas did hit his first Double-A home run. Bolte has unfortunately run into a stretch of getting handled well and striking out a lot, though it’s not uncommon when his mechanics/bat path get out whack for him to have issues.

Lansing Lugnuts

Record: 47-49, 15-16 2nd half, 4th in MWL East, (3 GB)

Season stats

• Euribiel Angeles - 85 G, 364 PA, 6 HR, 4.4% BB, 11.3% K, .279/.310/.398, 101 wRC+
• Cole Conn - 32 G, 120 PA, 3 HR, 10.8% BB, 22.5% K, .223/.308/.359, 92 wRC+
• Will Johnston - 53 ⅓ IP, 5.06 ERA, 8.3% BB, 29.4% K, 6 HR, 3.60 FIP
• Ryan Lasko - 9 G, 40 PA, 0 HR, 12.5% BB, 32.5% K, .229/.325/.286, 84 wRC+
• Luis Morales - 50 ⅔ IP, 3.73 ERA, 10.5% BB, 24.3% K, 5 HR, 4.10 FIP
• Will Simpson - 86 G, 375 PA, 12 HR, 15.7% BB, 26.1% K, .266/.381/.471, 143 wRC+
• Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang - 31 ⅔ IP, 2.56 ERA, 2.5% BB, 24.0% K, 2 HR, 2.74 FIP

Top Performers

The Lugnuts are getting steadily more interesting, with them being the landing spots for the newly-acquired Kade Morris and Jared Dickey, along with Nate Nankil getting his well-deserved promotion to High-A. The only player they will be losing is Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang, who at least it appears the Athletics are winding down for the season. The A’s worked Zhuang up to around the 70 pitch mark in mid-June, but since then he has only crossed 50 pitches once and has maxed out around 40 in his past four starts. Given Zhuang’s injury history it’s obvious the Athletics are going to be extremely careful, trying to preserve him through the remainder of the year while still allowing him to progress through the system naturally. This feels like the level that should finally challenge Zhuang, as at Double-A he’ll need to be finer with his pitches and won’t be able to rely totally on zone-filling to be effective. Zhuang is on the fast-track as it is and it will be interesting to see if any of his pitches beyond his splitter step up to being above average to plus strikeout options or if he remains more of a sequencing, solid average arsenal player.

It hasn’t felt like Luis Morales has had a truly dominant month here, but yet he finished off July with one run allowed over 4 ¹⁄₃ innings and has a 1.62 ERA in the month. Morales had really one game where he struggled to find the zone but has otherwise been fine, though I hasn’t seen any real progression in command just a switch to a focus on throwing the fastball across the plate. Morales’s inconsistency is frustrating at times, and I haven’t seen a game in a long time where it felt like he was locating and spinning all of his pitches how he wanted. Still, he’s had success lately despite his breaking balls not really dominating the way they have at times, and it feels nice to know that even in a stretch where Morales hasn’t been able to miss bats he’s been forcing weak contact in the zone and having success. The home run bug from June is off of his back, mostly because he’s not missing over the plate with his secondaries, and hopefully he can find a consistent feel for his pitches down the stretch and finish the last month plus strong.

It’s going about how I expected it would for Ryan Lasko so far in High-A, as he just isn’t making enough contact to be an effective hitter. That was always the risk in his profile, but I’m just surprised he’s been this bad of a hitter at the professional level across all pitch types. The addition of Nate Nankil gives this team a bit more intrigue, but there’s still no one on the roster I’m really feeling you can give a confident starter projection to. The one guy who could fit that bill is Will Simpson, who has six home runs now this month and is starting to focus more on hitting for power. Given his defensive profile that’s the right direction for his development, and even though it comes with more swing and miss (which was already a problem earlier in the season) he has the strength to profile as a first baseman from a power/on base perspective as long as he can maintain relatively acceptable strikeout rates.

Stockton Ports

Record: 37-57, 11-19 2nd half, 4th in CAL North, 9 GB

Season stats

• Steven Echavarria - 43 ⅔ IP, 5.36 ERA, 12.1% BB, 20.6% K, 2 HR, 4.73 FIP
• Clark Elliott - 31 G, 136 PA, 3 HR, 14.0% BB, 21.3% K, .279/.425/.452, 141wRC+
• Nate Nankil - 83 G, 359 PA, 10 HR, 12.3% BB, 17.8% K, .285/.401/.460, 134wRC+
• Myles Naylor - 84 G, 363 PA, 9 HR, 16.8% BB, 32.5% K, .207/.342/.344, 91 wRC+
• Joseph Rodriguez - 5 G, 20 PA, 2 HR, 10.0% BB, 40.0% K, .278/.350/.722, 167 wRC+

Top Performers

Myles Naylor has been in a bit of a power slump over the past couple of weeks, but it has also come with a welcome reduction in strikeouts that can hopefully be a sign of a turnaround in the near future. I don’t worry about Naylor’s power production in the future as he is clearly strong enough and has a swing to do damage, but obviously his swing and miss has been his biggest problem in his career. Focusing more on finding the barrel and getting a feel for his approach on breaking balls could serve him well, and once he has mastered those aspects of the game his power should come back around to him hitting home runs more consistently like earlier in the year.

Joseph Rodriguez has been an intriguing bat since being called up, though I am skeptical the hit tool will ever be good enough for him to consistently make us of his raw power. Still, a guy that hits the ball as hard as Rodriguez does to all fields is something that is relatively uncommon in any organization, and it’s worth the developmental effort to get him consistent at bats even if the strikeout rates hang up high. Rodriguez may just not have the feel for the barrel that he needs and is a bit aggressive on secondaries, but it’s a physical tool set worth following closely.

Steven Echavarria has consistenty looked like one of the top pitching prospects in the system, steadily improving the location of his fastball and slider as the season has worn on. With those two pitches as the primary offerings in his arsenal he has been dominant for the better part of a month and a half, with only two earned runs allowed over his past 23 ¹⁄₃ innings. The Athletics have kept Echavarria’s pitch count low and he doesn’t look ready for High-A just yet in my opinion, but he has more than exceeded my expectations from how he started the year. His arm speed and slider shape have both improved as the year has gone on, and even though his lower body is busy he has started to repeat more consistently and has seen improvements in his command especially on the fastball throughout the season.