Dissecting the Deadline for the Guardians

Talking through my thoughts about what happened and didn’t happen

Guardians fans on social media and on these fair forums are debating whether or not the Guardians’ additions of Lane Thomas and Alex Cobb were enough to call the Cleveland trade deadline approach good or not, so this Guardians fan who runs a blog wants to weigh in.

The first point I want to make is that the Guardians have a very good team. In fact, record-wise, they are the best team in Major League Baseball. I love watching, listening to, and rooting for the Cleveland Guardians. I am so glad the franchise has assembled this fun group of players, led by my favorite baseball player of all-time, Jose Ramirez. I am looking forward to seeing them try to win an AL Central title, a #1 or #2 seed in the AL, and then make a run at ending their 76-year title drought as best they can. I recognize that the franchise doesn’t make enough money to spend money like a top 10 spending franchise in the league, so they need to prioritize acquiring and developing controllable talent to increase their chances at making as many runs in the postseason (which is an absolute crapshoot) as possible. At the end of this season, if the Guardians do not win a World Series title, you will not hear me call it a failure. They don’t have to win a title to make me happy as a fan or bring me joy. My primary goal for this season, personally, is to have my five year-old, four year-old and one year-old children gain a greater love for the game so we can all enjoy it together in the years I have left on God’s green earth (40, 50, who knows).

With that said, I have, what I believe, is a slightly different philosophy on trade deadlines such as Cleveland just experienced than the Cleveland front office does. When I see a team that has a clear path to winning an AL Central title and thus making the playoffs (as has been clear is the case since the ZiPS projections released over the winter had the roster at 85 wins), I cannot help but think about the numerous funerals I have officiated in my other job in which I have celebrated the lives of people who, among other things, LOVED the Cleveland baseball team and yet lived their entire lives without once getting to celebrate a World Series title.

Now, were any of those funerals made into events where we all just sat around sad because these folks never saw their favorite baseball team win a title? No. Absolutely not. We focused on the major things like family, spouses, friends, the legacies of love and laughter they left behind. But, man, these folks spent a lot of their free time and expendable (or not so expendable income) on rooting for Cleveland baseball and they never got a title to remember and celebrate. Not one. And, I hope we can all acknowledge that this is a bummer. It’s not a tragedy. It’s not “inexcusable.” It’s a bummer. And if we can see Cleveland baseball win a World Series title in the next five to ten years, it will keep this streak from reaching a point where essentially no one is going to know a singler person who remembers the 1948 World Series title (an incredibly special memory, go read Luke Epplin’s amazing book about that team).

Ok, so with that perspective firmly in mind, I think it’s very clear that the 2024 Cleveland Guardians have one prominent issue. It’s starting pitching. Throughout the year, the team has been consistently among the bottom three in baseball in fielding independent pitching (ERA without defensive factors considered) and most other pitching stats. Thankfully, Gavin Williams has returned to help and looks like he is going to provide much better production than what pitchers like Logan Allen and Triston McKenzie were able to do through much of the season. But, with McKenzie looking absolutely lost and Allen still with a 5.89 FIP in Columbus, it doesn’t seem like either pitcher should be counted on to help this season. Leaving the Guardians with Tanner Bibee, Williams and reborn Ben Lively to anchor the rotation. Carlos Carrasco has been among the worst starting pitchers in baseball, God love him, and Joey Cantillo gave a nice effort in Philadelphia but is unlikely ready for consistent production given his Triple-A walk-rate of 6 batters per 9 innings.

So, for a while now, we have known that the Guardians needed two starting pitchers. The Guardians alertly signed Matthew Boyd who is returning from Tommy John surgery having last pitched in June of 2023, throwing 71 innings last year. Boyd is projected for a 4.20 FIP and I think it’s fine to hope Cleveland can get him more to around 4.00 if healthy. So, that’s a solid number four starter that you’re ok seeing if he can get you two times through an order in game three of a playoff series if absolutely necessary. IF healthy, because, remember, he’s trying to come back from elbow ligament replacement surgery.

Coming into the trade deadline, it was my belief that this was the time for the Guardians to swing big for a frontline starting pitcher. Someone for whom it was reasonable to believe they could have an FIP in the low 3’s, someone who can strike out around 9 batters per 9 or better or, if a little below that K-rate, someone who gets an insane amount of groundballs hit to Andres Gimenez, Brayan Rocchio/Tyler Freeman and Jose Ramirez for those good-elite defenders to gobble up. Someone whom, if Tanner Bibee or Gavin Williams gets hurt, God forbid, you can reliably count on to pitch game 1 or 2 of a playoff series without a second thought.

Obviously, that was going to cost a ton. Starting pitching is the most highly valued commodity in the sport. And, unluckily for the Guardians, the two best starting pitchers available (and moved) at the deadline belonged to division rivals in Erick Fedde with the White Sox and Jack Flaherty with the Tigers. The third best starting pitcher dealt was a bit of a gamble in Yusei Kikuchi who has amazing stuff (as seen by his 3.65 FIP and 3.41 xFIP) but who has had trouble staying away from the barrel of the bat.

So, after surveying the landscape and, as I heard rumored and believe entirely was true, giving their absolute best to find a fair yet costly deal to acquire a frontline starter, the Guardians pivoted to another rehabbing starter in Alex Cobb. Cobb had hip surgery in the offseason then had some shoulder nerve issues while trying to come back, making it so he had managed only one five inning start in Triple-A for the Giants before the Guardians acquired him (he also had a finger blister pop, which hopefully and theoretically will not be an issue for the future). From 2021-2023, Cobb had a 3.24 FIP with a 58.1% groundball rate, and an 8.67/2.59 K/BB/9. Let me be absolutely clear, IF healthy and in 2021-2023 form, Cobb fits the bill for what I expected the Guardians to acquire absolutely and I’d expect him to start game 2 or 3 of a playoff series for them. And, if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we’d all have a Merry Christmas!

For me, I can’t consider Alex Cobb to currently be 2021-2023 Alex Cobb given he has five innings of work this season in Triple-A and that’s it. He’s 36 years old and that’s not young for a pitcher. Hip problems can be notoriously tricky for a pitcher to navigate. It’s good news that he has averaged 150 innings over the past two years, so IF he can be healthy and get stretched out, he has as good a chance to be able to pitch late in the season as any 36 year old with hip and shoulder issues can. As things stand, he adds an additional chip to the poker table as the Guardians attempt to gamble and play their way to a viable playoff rotation. I’m not sure how much bigger a chip he is than the chip of a Doug Nikhazy/Austin Peterson/Tommy Mace/Ryan Webb breakout. But, it’s important to add that chip to those chips as we continue, and I acknowledge that.

I would give the Guardians a passing grade on this deadline. I very much appreciate that they proved the usual doomsayers who predicted they’d do nothing to improve the team dead wrong. I’ve adjusted the grade with the news that teams like the Yankees had doubts about Jack Flaherty’s back issues. I wanted to slam the Guardians for the fact that not one consensus top 100 prospect was dealt at this deadline, so it’s pretty clear they could have got a better starter had they been willing to offer one of the 3-6 top 100 guys (depending on your preferred list) not named Travis Bazzana on their team. I know, I know, I’m not in those rooms, so, I simply have to go by what logic and circumstantial reasoning tells me. I appreciate that my perspective seems to align, generally, with Zack Meisel’s of the Athletic.

As a brief aside, I recognize that the Guardians’ front office is perpetually limited by ownership. I’m firmly convinced that, if they’d been given the go-ahead, the team would have acquired a Blake Snell or a Nathan Eovaldi or a Chris Bassitt. But, that would have required taking on more salary for 2025 than what ownership would allow. This will forever limit Cleveland’s chances for going “all-in” until ownership’s mindset changes. And, I think in 2017 when they signed Encarnacion, the Dolans’ eyes were saucer-sized regarding the potential of winning a World Series title. Maybe that happens again.

To go back to the kind of deal that was possible for the Guardians: As an example, I see that many public commentors and some Astros fans are perplexed by how much Houston gave up for Yusei Kikuchi. “Jake Bloss, 23 year old right-handed starter, may be better than Kikuchi by next season!”, they say, “And they gave up other not insignificant pieces with Bloss. For a half-a-season of Kikuchi. Who needs work!” Yes, all true.And, to be clear, I am not a Yusei Kikuchi truther. But, he stands as an example of how a team really pushing in chips for a player with the ceiling to start in an important playoff game acts. In the Kikuchi trade, the Astros acted like a team with an aging superstar and future hall of famer, a thin but talented starting rotation, who are trying to win their first championship in 76 years. ...But, of course, Houston has the 2017* and 2022 titles in their back-pockets.

It’s that kind of aggression I wanted to see from the Guardians regarding their attempt to acquire a starting pitcher and I don’t see evidence of. Nor do I believe the front office shares the belief that being that aggressive is a good idea. The most valuable assets they have are players like Chase DeLauter, Kyle Manzardo, Juan Brito and Angel Genao because if just ONE of those players hits their ceiling, they have 3-6 win players for everyday use who will be paid in peanuts for like seven years. It’s dumb to consider giving even one of those assets up for half a season of a player you have to fix, anyway, or who might get hurt, or who may wake up sick game one of a World Series. You increase your odds by spreading the assets you have out over a longer period of time and trying to win 54% of your games and make the playoffs, year-in and year-out. And wouldn’t you rather root for the Guardians than the Kansas City Royals who have two pennants and one title in my lifetime and a whole lot of HORRIFIC baseball in between?

Maybe. Maybe I would prefer the Guardians’ way. Or, maybe I’d be wearing my 2015 Cleveland Indians World Champions polo to work practically every day like my one friend who is a Royals fan does and enjoying the heck out of the end of Salvador Perez’s career and seeing one prospect finally hit like Bobby Witt Jr did, that hunk of metal held tight to my chest, helping me feel better about years and years of futility and frustration.

My focus has been on starting pitching because great starting pitching still has the most impact on a given game in the playoffs as anything does. But, I want to give the Guardians props for acquiring Lane Thomas, of course. They saw the issues the team has had in right-field and center-field and they acquired either the second or first best option to fix those problems (depending on how you view Randy Arozarena). They saw that, despite a solid performance against lefties this year, smart teams are still throwing as many left-handers vs. Guardians’ batters as they possibly can, and they got a certified lefty-masher who causes disruption on the bases with the best of them. I like the aggression and the willingness to sacrifice a promising teenage lefty, a solid ML-ready utility infielder, and another teenager, a hitter with some significant ceiling if he can figure some things out, to get Thomas.

My final quibble with the deadline is that there were a LOT of relief pitchers moved and the Guardians bullpen, while the best in baseball, is relying on a LOT of young pitchers nearing career highs in innings pitched. Sure, maybe the Guardians can create Dylan Floro, if needed, from some of the young starting pitchers I mentioned, or from young bullpen phenom Andrew Walters. But, for the prices that some of the non-closers went for, given that the Guardians couldn’t get a top of the line starter, acquiring another proven, veteran reliever would have made sense to me.

So, here we are, with a C-grade deadline and an A-grade team. That’s a pretty great place to be and it’s better than what the Twins and Royals were able to do these past few days. I can’t wait to see gritty vets Cobb and Boyd provide wisdom and guidance to this stable of young arms and flash their past brilliance when the team needs it most in October. I can’t wait to see Lane Thomas make the 2-hole in the lineup a consistent source of production, especially against lefties. I can’t wait to see a breakout from a young hitter or two. I can’t wait to see how this Guardians team gets our hearts in our throats and our fists pumped in the air as the playoffs approach. But, I do still hope that one of these times, we will see a clear sign from the front office and from ownership, in free agency and trades, that they want a World Series title just as much as a diehard Cleveland fan from birth to 75 years old does.