Beantown: Mariners at Red Sox Series Preview

Fresh off a series sweep, the Mariners take on their second sock themed team in a row.

Life is not always generous in the opportunities it affords you to simply choose happiness. But in the wake of a flurry of sports benevolence - and a great many moves from one Jerry Dipoto - you are invited to look simply at the Mariners in their post-Randy Arozarena era. The era in which they are undefeated and score so many runs. The era where hope springs as jauntily as a bat connecting with a Drew Thorpe fastball, and the act of watching the fellas in Northwest Green no longer feels like something that could see the U.S. banned from competing in the Olympics. Their current winning percentage (.523) puts them a scant tick below the Astros (.524) for the division title, but there is light once again and no need to dwell on the past darkness.

In between filming for a truly inexplicable Netflix documentary, the Red Sox turned in a surprising first half that saw them holding their own in the AL East and maintaining a slot in the Wild Card race. They’ve stumbled in the admittedly short time back after the All-Star break, falling victim to the Dodgers in a sweep and losing back-to-back series against the Rockies (mortifying) and the Yankees. GM Brian O’Halloran has opted to inspire his team to better action amidst the trade deadline by acquiring… Danny Jansen*. Whose good defense and rough offensive season is definitely going to help Boston with their primary area of liability:

*Sorry Danny, you don’t need to be catching undeserved strays over here on Lookout Landing dot com.

Jarren Duran has been a top 10 player in baseball, his season nothing short of transcendent. Rafael Devers is (again, and belatedly in equal measure) living up to the hype. My continued and unfounded anti-Tyler O’Neill vendetta means I do not wish to acknowledge anything beyond his presence in the lineup. Rob Refsnyder is quietly having a career year (it’s technically true!), and while the absence of Triston Casas stings, the news he could start his rehab assignment this week bodes well. And, of course, the addition of Jansen’s bat allows them to most notably no longer be encumbered by Reese McGuire.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

After adding a sweeper to his pitch mix late last year, Nick Pivetta enjoyed a string of strong starts to finish the season. This year, his peripherals are better than they were a year ago, but his actual results have suffered. His ERA is nearly a full run higher than his FIP and xERA and it seems like a lot of that discrepancy is just down to bad sequencing luck. His BABIP is a little higher but within the normal range for a fly ball pitcher, but he’s really struggled when men are on base; his wOBA allowed when there are runners in scoring position is a ghastly .393 this year.

---

James Paxton signed a one-year deal with the Dodgers this offseason and was surprisingly their most healthy pitcher during the first half of the season. With Los Angeles’s rotation getting healthier, Paxton was squeezed out of his role and traded to the Red Sox a few days ago. Even though he’s been healthy, his stuff has pretty significantly deteriorated this year. He’s running the lowest strikeout rate of his career now that his fastball is averaging 93 mph rather than 95 mph like it was at his peak. He has managed to curtail the amount of damage he’s allowing on contact, dropping his home run rate to just 9.5%, but that hasn’t been enough to offset the loss of strikeouts in his profile.

---

Even after signing a big contract extension over the offseason, Brayan Bello has continued to struggle to find much consistency. He’s ditched his four-seam fastball in favor of his sinker, though that hasn’t really helped all that much. He’s getting plenty of swings and misses with his changeup and slider, but batters are teeing off against his fastball to the tune of a .424 wOBA. His FIP is essentially unchanged from last year but his ERA is a full run higher than it was and he’s showing no signs of improvement.

---

The Big Picture:

Despite the abject agony of most of their July, the Mariners find themselves just .001 out of first place in the division and a reasonable 4.5 games up on the third place Rangers. The AL West title is truly Seattle’s best path to the postseason, given the division’s anemic overall performance this year. Presently, the M’s are 1.5 games back of a Wild Card spot. It’s a weird year, y’all.