Series Preview: Mets Host the Twins As Trade Deadline Looms

After splitting their weekend series against the Braves, the New York Mets (55-50) host the Minnesota Twins (58-46) for a three-game interleague matchup.

Entering Monday, the Mets hold the third Wild Card spot, albeit with little breathing room. There are six other teams within five games of that spot, including two within just one game. The Mets must treat each game with urgency as they prepare for a tight race in the last stretch of the season.

They play the Twins, who are in the midst of a tight Wild Card race themselves. They just won their series against the Tigers, and hold the second Wild Card spot by a tight two-game margin.

Let’s preview the pitching matchups for this series!

Monday, July 29, 2024: RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (3-1, 3.27 ERA) vs. LHP Jose Quintana (5-6, 4.02 ERA)

Former Mets prospect Simeon Woods Richardson offers a four-pitch mix which includes a four-seamer, slider, changeup, and curveball. He does not profile as a strikeout pitcher but has found success through his low 6.9 percent walk rate and above-average 37.1 percent hard-hit rate. His rookie season has gone very well by most standards, and there could be additional motivation for him on Monday as he faces the team that drafted and traded him.

Jose Quintana turned in a solid outing against the Yankees, with five innings and six strikeouts. However, he struggled to limit walks, a recurring issue for him this season. He has a below-average 8.5 percent walk rate with his subpar whiff and strikeout rate. This means that allowing walks can be especially concerning for Quintana, as he usually does not follow them up with strikeouts.

Tuesday, July 30, 2024: RHP David Festa (1-1, 8.16 ERA) vs. LHP Sean Manaea (6-4, 3.74 ERA)

David Festa (not to be confused with former Mets pitcher Matt Festa) is on his second stint with the big league club due to injuries across the pitching staff. He struggled mightily in his first stint with a 10.80 ERA in 10 innings. However, he seemed to turn a corner in his appearance against the Phillies several days ago, striking out seven in 4 1/2 innings. He features a four-seamer, slider and changeup, with the potential to make him a strikeout pitcher at this level. He struck out 89 batters in 60 1/3 innings in Triple-A this year, and his recent outing could be a sign of good things for the rookie.

Sean Manaea has a 2.98 ERA across eight starts since June 14. However, walks continue to plague him in some of these outings. He has a 10.1 percent walk rate on the season, and this issue has created a tendency for him to exit games early due to his pitch count rising quickly. That said, he is at his best when he is inducing ground balls and locating his several pitches.

Wednesday, July 31, 2024: RHP Pablo López (9-7, 4.73 ERA) vs. RHP Luis Severino (7-3, 3.58 ERA)

Pablo López offers a five-pitch mix, headlined by his four-seamer and sweeper. These are his best pitches, with opposing batting averages of .185 and .221 respectively. Despite his high ERA, he profiles well in strikeout and walk rate. He has an 82nd percentile 27.7 percent strikeout rate and 89th percentile 5.1 percent walk rate. He is trending upward heading into Wednesday, having pitched seven innings in his last two starts with 14 total strikeouts and three runs allowed.

Luis Severino has picked up right where he left off after the break, only allowing two runs across 11 innings in his two outings. He enters Wednesday with the best ERA among qualified Mets starting pitchers, showcasing his strong comeback effort from his past woes. He has also provided longevity for the Mets, as he will be starting his 21st game Wednesday. With the recent injuries to Kodai Senga and Christian Scott, the Mets need Severino’s skill set more than ever going into the Wild Card race.

Players to Watch

Pete Alonso (NYM)

Pete Alonso has been hitting better lately, batting .320/.433/.680 in his last seven games. He is coming off a multi-hit game against the Braves on Sunday, with one of those hits being a home run. While he has not been his usual self this season, now seems like the perfect time for him to turn on the switch. The front office conveyed a belief in the team with their recent trade acquisitions, which should contribute to the overall morale of the clubhouse, including Alonso.

Byron Buxton (MIN)

In his last 15 games, Byron Buxton is batting .327/.373/.673 with 18 hits and four home runs. He has often battled injuries in his career, so it is impressive to see what he can do when healthy for an extended stretch. He has been adept at achieving hard contact this season, with a hard-hit rate of 47.7 percent. He pairs this with his 97th percentile 29.6 ft/sec, causing him to wreak havoc on the basepaths. The Mets will certainly have their hands full with Buxton’s dynamic skill set this week.

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