A Deep Dive Into Newest Mets Outfielder Jesse Winker

Right before midnight, the New York Mets came to an agreement with the Washington Nationals on a trade for outfielder Jesse Winker. In exchange, the team parted with pitching prospect Tyler Stuart.

Winker, a left-handed bat, brings a much-needed offensive upgrade to the Mets’ outfield. He will also bring a boost to the lineup against right-handed pitchers. The Mets own the fourth-highest team OPS against left-handed pitching, against righties, that number drops to 10th.

Winker, an eight-year major leaguer, signed a one-year deal with the Washington Nationals in the offseason coming off a career-worst 2023 season. In 2023, Winker posted a lowly .567 OPS after regressing in 2022 (.688 OPS) despite an All-Star 2021 season. The low-risk, one-year deal worth only $2 million proved to be a wise investment for Washington, as he has rebounded in a big way thus far in 2024.

Across 315 at-bats in 2024, Winker has posted a .257/.374/.419 slash line good for a .793 OPS. He has produced 11 home runs and 45 RBIs to go along with 14 stolen bases (caught stealing four times). Specifically, and why the Mets targeted him, the left-handed bat has teed off on right-handed pitching, slashing .266/.390/.450 which is good for a staggering .840 OPS. He has hit 10 of his 11 home runs off righties and has walked 42 times.

Speaking of walks, one of the reasons Winker has been so effective this season is because of a very strong eye at the plate. Winker’s minuscule chase rate has him in the league’s 96th percentile, combined with a whiff rate in the 69th percentile, and the 30-year-old 14.0% walk rate is one of the best in the majors (97th percentile).

In the field, Winker’s range as an outfielder is a bit limited. His outs above average (OAA) of negative-8 in 2024 ranks in the league’s second percentile. However, he does have an extremely strong arm (96th percentile arm value) which has likely led to a defensive runs saved that is actually plus-1 this season.

Speaking of the field, Winker has almost exclusively played left field throughout his career. Nearly 80% of the innings he has spent in the outfield has come in left field, 17% has come in right, and only 3% in center field. So, it would appear New York will be asking Winker to play a spot in the outfield he is not exactly used to playing, at least some of the time.

However, there is the chance, which would make sense, but would compromise the outfield defense surely, where the Mets play Jeff McNeil in right field, Brandon Nimmo in center field, and Winker in his more familiar left. This would relegate the terrific defense of Harrison Bader to the bench. Regardless, manager Carlos Mendoza will certainly have options.

The Return

The return is right-handed pitcher Tyler Stuart. Stuart, now 24 years old, was having a nice season at the Double-A level. Through 17 starts and 84 innings, Stuart owns a 3.96 ERA and has 90 strikeouts. The underlying metrics are even kinder to Stuart, as evident by his 3.28 FIP and 3.24 xFIP. He also excels at not walking batters (2.14 BB/9) and not allowing the long ball (0.86 HR/9),

This all comes just one year after really emerging as a potentially underrated arm within the Mets’ system. In 2023, split between High-A and Double-A, Stuart posted a 2.20 ERA across 110 2/3 innings to go along with 112 strikeouts.

Overall, despite the stronger numbers, it was a bit unflattering to see Stuart still at the Double-A level at age 24. There are also some concerns that he can remain a starter in the longterm. He is likely due for a promotion and it will be very interesting to see if he can keep up the strong performances as the competition gets tougher.

Stuart would have been ranked 19th in MMO’s updated top-35 Mets prospect list and Baseball America has him ranked 23rd. So, not a devastating price to pay for Winker by any means which is nice work by David Stearns. Though, Washington should be happy with the return, as Stuart is an intriguing prospect based off his performances the last two seasons.

Final Thoughts

It is clear that president of baseball operations David Stearns is buying ahead of his first deadline with the Mets. New York has propelled themselves into the thick of the wild card race, as a result, Stearns has already made three deals which will instantly betters his ball club. Winker joins relief pitchers Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek as the three external adds Stearns has made thus far.

Winker, specifically, will be an automatic upgrade offensively in the outfield over the likes of Harrison Bader, Tyrone Taylor, and DJ Stewart. It also gives a nice replacement to Starling Marte who is continuing to rehab from a knee injury. Specifically, Winker will help propel a Mets offense that would benefit from a boost against right-handed pitching. Granted, as mentioned above, it may compromise the team’s outfield defense a bit, but the offense will no doubt get a boost.

Next up, Stearns would be wise to address the rotation and potentially another additional bullpen arm. Especially with the injury to Kodai Senga. With the July 30 deadline just a couple days away, the excitement around the team is certainly at a season-high.

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