Series Preview: Yankees Host Mets for Subway Series Finale

After splitting their four-game series with the Marlins, the New York Mets (51-48) head across town to Yankee Stadium for the final two games of the 2024 Subway Series against the New York Yankees (60-42).

The Mets won the first two games against the Yankees a few weeks ago when they hosted them at Citi Field. So, regardless of the results of these next two games, the worst-case scenario for the Mets will be a split in this year’s Subway Series.

However, there will likely be a source of extra motivation for both teams based on the back-and-forth comments between members of both teams ahead of Tuesday’s matchup. Mets pitcher Luis Severino started the fire by telling the media that he and his former Yankees teammates recently exchanged friendly banter in their group chat. Severino’s comments about the lack of depth in the Yankees lineup ruffled some feathers within the Yankees community, warranting a response from Juan Soto.

Let’s preview the pitching matchups in the Bronx!

Tuesday, July 23, 2024: LHP Jose Quintana (4-6, 4.13 ERA) vs. RHP Luis Gil (10-5, 3.17 ERA)

After two consecutive scoreless outings, Jose Quintana took a step back, allowing five runs over 5 2/3 innings his last time out. Consistency has been Quintana’s main issue this season, as he has displayed flashes of dominance in some outings. Quintana’s best pitch has been his changeup, limiting opponents to a .222 batting average and .322 slugging percentage.

After his poor performance against the Mets on June 26, Luis Gil briefly struggled before returning to his dominant form. He has only allowed two runs across his last two starts with 16 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings. Gil has displayed an aptitude for generating swings and misses with his 29.3 percent whiff rate and 28.2 percent strikeout rate this season. He is also among the league’s best in xBA (expected batting average) with a .200 figure, indicating generating favorable contact.

Wednesday, July 24, 2024: LHP Sean Manaea (6-4, 3.73 ERA) vs. RHP Gerrit Cole (3-1, 4.60 ERA)

Aside from his most recent outing, Sean Manaea has turned a corner over the last month. In seven starts since June 14, Manaea has a 2.88 ERA, 3.93 FIP, and 40.7 percent ground ball rate with 37 strikeouts in 40 2/3 innings. His sweeper continues to be his strongest pitch, with a 43.2 percent whiff rate and a .156 batting average against while being used 299 times.

Gerrit Cole appears to be back to his usual self after a late start to his season due to injury. He has struck out 15 batters over his last two outings, with just two runs given up over 12 innings. He has a 26.6 percent strikeout rate and 35.4 percent hard-hit rate this year, which shows he is close to looking like the Gerrit Cole of recent years.

Players to Watch

Jeff McNeil (NYM)

Jeff McNeil has finally broken out of his season-long slump, launching three home runs in the four-game series against the Marlins. He is batting .304/.320/.783 in his last seven games with nine RBIs. While McNeil has not been very noticeable on the box score this year, there are some encouraging signs that suggest a potential turnaround for him.

He is only striking out at a 12.8 percent rate, with a whiff rate of just 15.4 percent. Also, he is in the 90th percentile of the squared-up rate with a figure of 31.8 percent (read MLB’s description of how this statistic is calculated here). These statistics show that he is not only getting the bat to the ball frequently but that it is usually high quality.

Juan Soto (NYY)

Juan Soto has been outstanding as of late, batting .455/.471/.939 in his last seven games with three home runs and seven RBIs. As many fans across baseball know, this is nothing new for Soto. Just by looking at the red lines on Juan Soto’s Baseball Savant page, it is clear that he is in a league of his own when it comes to hitting metrics. Soto provides a unique combination of light tower power and excellent plate discipline, making him one of the most desirable free agents for this upcoming offseason.

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