Series Preview: Padres at Guardians

Josh Naylor and Austin Hedges welcome their old team to town

The Guardians and Padres will meet for a three game series this weekend, with both teams in the middle of 4-6 stretches in their last ten games.

The Padres are 50-49 with a +12 run differential, they rank seventh in MLB with a team wRC+ of 111, 16th with -1.3 Baserunning Runs Above Average, 22nd in Defensive WAR with -21.9, 13th in starting pitcher FIP with 4.02, and 14th in reliever FIP at 3.85.

The Guardians are 58-37 with a +85 run differential, they rank 11th in MLB with a 105 wRC+, 23rd in MLB with -4.3 Baserunning Runs Above Average, fifth in Defensive WAR at 7.5, 28th in starter FIP at 4.66, and first in reliever FIP at 3.17.

Side note: I would really like the Guardians to sweep the Padres and send them into a spiral because I want San Diego to pivot on their strategy and trade Dylan Cease to Cleveland at the trade deadline.

Matchups:

Game One: Matt Waldron, RHP (3.87 FIP) vs. Tanner Bibee, RHP (3.34 FIP), Friday, July 19th, 7:10PM EST

Analysis: Bibee will look to rebound from a couple shaky starts against a good Padres lineup featuring Jurickson Profar 152 wRC+, Fernando Tatis Jr. 137 wRC+, Eguy Rosario 129 wRC+, Donovan Solano 119 wRC+, Kyle Higashioka 118 wRC+, Jake Cronenworth 117 wRC+, the only all-star to get a “hit” off Emmanuel Clase Jackson Merrill 113 wRC+ and Manny Machado 111 wRC+. Can any Guardians hit a knuckleball? We’ll find out tonight (it’s on AppleTV, though, sadly).

Game Two: Dylan Cease, RHP (3.26 FIP) vs. Gavin Williams, RHP (3.16 FIP), Saturday, July 20th, 7:10PM EST

Analysis: On paper, this is a low-scoring affair so we’ll see if Cease can spin it vs. the Guardians’ best hitters Steven Kwan at 164 wRC+, Jhonkensy Noel 156 wRC+, Angel Martinez 146 wRC+, David Fry 143 wRC+, Jose Ramirez 133 wRC+, Josh Naylor 127 wRC+, Daniel Schneemann 127 wRC+, and Will Brennan 101 wRC+.

Game Three: Michael King, RHP (3.69 FIP) vs. Ben Lively, RHP (4.56 FIP), Sunday, July 21st, 1:40PM EST

Analysis: It’s pretty clear this series is going to be a tough one in which the Guardians’ hitters need to find their footing quickly. Putting the ball in play as much as possible is a good idea due to the Padres’ poor defense, but I’d also like to see Cleveland try to put up some more length at-bats given their propensity to swing at the first pitch in the games leading up to the break. Hopefully, the Guardians are happy to be back at Progressive Field and refreshed by some time off and can win a series to get the last sixty some games off to a good start.