Where does Bryce Harper stand in NL MVP race against Shohei Ohtani?

As Philadelphia Phillies‘ first baseman Bryce Harper chases his third career NL MVP Award, his biggest competition is clearly Los Angeles Dodgers’ DH Shohei Ohtani.

Like Harper, Ohtani is looking to join Mike Trout as the only active players to win three MVPs. Ohtani has a chance to join Hall of Famer Frank Robinson as the only players in MLB history to win MVP in both the AL and NL. He’s also attempting to become the first full-time DH to win an MVP, as his two prior wins (2021 and 2023) came while he was also pitching.

So with the second half of the season set to begin on Friday, how do Harper and Ohtani stack up against each other?

From an odds perspective, Ohtani is currently the favorite. According to BetMGM, Ohtani has -375 odds, as opposed to +450 from Harper. Perhaps Trea Turner or someone else will push their way into the picture, but right now, this is a two-horse race. At +2000, Freddie Freeman is a distant third in NL MVP odds.

Offensively, Ohtani has a pretty clear lead right now. Los Angeles’ DH leads the NL in home runs (29), runs scored (75), slugging percentage (.635), OPS (1.036) and OPS+ (189). Ohtani’s 235 total bases are the most of any player in baseball this year. Ohtani also has an edge in batting average (.316 to Harper’s .301), RBIs (69 to Harper’s 61) stolen bases (23 to Harper’s four) and hits (117 to Harper’s 91).

Harper has modest leads in terms of walks (53 to Ohtani’s 51) and on-base percentage (.403 to Ohtani’s 400). But it’s clear for this to be a real race, Harper is going to have to close the gap and probably even surpass Ohtani in some additional offensive categories.

However, Harper doesn’t necessarily need to have a better offensive season than Ohtani to win MVP. Harper, of course, is playing a defensive position in addition to hitting, and doing pretty well at it. In his first full season as a first baseman, Harper has three defensive runs saved and six outs above average. That’s certainly a feather in his cap relative to Ohtani, who won’t play an inning in the field this year.

As mentioned above, no full-time DH has ever won an MVP. Edgar Martínez finished third in 1995 AL MVP voting for the Seattle Mariners, while David Ortiz finished fourth or better every year from 2004 to 2007 while DHing for the Boston Red Sox. But Ortiz peaked at a second-place finish in 2005. Both Martínez and Ortiz are now Hall of Famers, so voters believed they were Cooperstown-worthy. But neither ever got over the hump and won an MVP.

With that said, Ohtani has never seemed particularly concerned with precedent. If there’s anyone to shatter the DH glass ceiling and win an MVP, it would be Ohtani. And this would be the year to do it, with reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. out for the season and former AL MVP Mookie Betts out currently with a left hand fracture. (Also, barring a change of plans, Ohtani won’t strictly be a DH next year, as he’ll return to pitching in addition to hitting.)

For Harper to prevent Ohtani from winning NL MVP, it’s going to take more than just pointing out that one plays a defensive position and the other doesn’t. Harper is going to need to have a monster second half offensively, perhaps like he did during his 2021 NL MVP season, when he hit .338 with with 20 home runs, 50 RBIs and a 1.188 OPS after the All-Star Break. Even then, Harper is probably going to need some slippage from the level Ohtani is hitting at right now.

Ultimately, both Harper and Ohtani will have their eyes on a bigger prize in October. But before the Phillies and Dodgers potentially meet in the postseason, watching two future Hall of Famers compete for the NL MVP should be fun.

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