Series Preview: Guardians at Orioles

Two American League juggernauts clash

The Cleveland Guardians will be tested in Baltimore by an excellent Orioles team for the next three days.

The Guardians are 49-26 with a +104 run differential, are ninth in MLB with a 109 wRC+, 21st in Baserunning Runs Above Average at -2, sixth in Defensive WAR at 2, 28th in starting pitcher FIP at 4.64 and first in relief pitcher FIP at 2.88.

The Orioles are 49-28 with a +111 run differential, are second in MLB with a 119 wRC+, fourth in Baserunning Runs Above Average at 6.1, eleventh in Defensive WAR at -1.4, fourth in starting pitcher FIP at 3.60, and third in relief pitcher FIP at 3.61.

No matter how you look at it, this Baltimore team is darn good. They’ve been decimated by starting pitcher injuries and we’ll see if that catches up to them, but they are the real deal. I’d argue the Guardians have also proven they are for real, but it’s fair to have significant skepticism about the starting pitching for Cleveland.

Matchups:

Game One: Tanner Bibee, RHP (3.23 FIP) vs. Cade Povich, LHP (4.71 FIP)

Analysis: On paper, this is the game to win. We will see how Bibee is able to handle the Orioles’ best hitters, Gunnar Henderson 174 wRC+, Jordan Westburg 139 wRC+, Adley Rutschman 137 wRC+, Ryan O’Hearn 130 wRC+, Anthony Santander 128 wRC+, Ryan Mountcastle 125 wRC+ and Kyle Stowers at 11 wRC+.

Game Two: Logan Allen, LHP (5.51 FIP) vs. Cole Irvin, LHP (3.69 FIP)

Analysis: Allen has been righting the ship of late, so hopefully, we will see him hang with another tough lefty in Irvin. The Guardians will lean on Steven Kwan 192 wRC+, David Fry 172 wRC+, Daniel Schneemann 171 wRC+, Jose Ramirez 140 wRC+, Josh Naylor 132 wRC+ and Will Brennan 109 wRC+ throughout this series, and I’d expect Angel Martinez (if still with the team) and Johnathan Rodriguez to get starts in this game against the southpaw.

Game Three: Carlos Carrasco, RHP (4.78 FIP) vs. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP (3.38 FIP)

Analysis: Carrasco had a turn the clock back game his last time out, so hopefully that continues. There will be a mere 13 year age gap between this game’s starting pitchers.