Pivot Point: Mariners vs. Rangers Series Preview
The Mariners and Rangers matchup in a critical AL West showdown this weekend.
After a less than emphatic series win over the White Sox, the Mariners will host the Rangers this weekend in what could be a pivotal series in the division standings. By starting Emerson Hancock yesterday and pushing the rest of the rotation back a day, the M’s have shown how serious they’re taking this series; they can talk publicly about giving their starters an extra day of rest but lining up their three best starters in this critical series just happens to be a nice coincidence too. A series loss won’t hurt Seattle’s chances of winning the division that much but a series win could really bury the Rangers and give the M’s a huge lead in the AL West. This really is desperation time for Texas.
After a dismal May, the Rangers have been a tiny bit better in June, particularly after their surprising series win over the Dodgers earlier this week. Their biggest issues haven’t stemmed from their patchwork rotation but from their offense; since scoring 12 runs against the A’s on May 8, Texas has scored more than 4 runs in a game just six times in that stretch of 29 games. There have been a few injuries to key players in their lineup, but for the most part, too many of their key contributors from the best offense in the AL last year are having trouble replicating that success this season. Their pitching staff has held up their end of the bargain the team made to start this season with their best starters on the IL, but they’ve been sunk by their surprisingly feeble offense.
The core trio of Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Adolis García are all suffering through down seasons this year. Seager has picked up his production recently, but he’s been hampered by a nagging hamstring injury and has played just once in the last week. It’s pretty telling that Josh Smith has the highest wRC+ on the team right now — all credit to Smith who tweaked his swing over the offseason and has reaped the rewards. The pair of highly regarded rookies have largely disappointed too; Wyatt Langford has struggled to find any consistency and has limped to a 75 wRC+ and Evan Carter, currently sidelined with a back injury, has only been slightly better at 79.
Probable Pitchers
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From a previous series preview:
Andrew Heaney’s success has always ebbed and flowed with his ability to keep the ball inside the yard. He’s always posted excellent strikeout rates and has good enough command of his three-pitch repertoire that he can be very effective when he’s not allowing a ton of hard contact. That blueprint goes out the window as soon as balls start flying over fences. Back in 2022, he took a pretty significant step forward with the Dodgers and the hope was that newfound ability to strikeout more than a third of the batters he faced would give him a much higher ceiling. That wasn’t the case when he joined the Rangers last year; his strikeout rate fell back to his career norms and his walk rate jumped up three points to make matters worse.
Heaney has been pretty effective this year despite a 2-7 win-loss record. In his last outing against the Mariners, he allowed four runs in six innings, striking out seven.
With Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer sidelined to start the season, Nathan Eovaldi has been the Rangers de facto ace, though he’s dealt with a minor groin strain already this season. He was a key member of Texas’s championship roster last year, making six excellent starts in the postseason. His effectiveness is pretty closely tied to the velocity of his fastball — last summer, fatigue caused his heater to slip below 95 mph for a short stretch and his results suffered until he managed to recover in time for the playoffs.
From a previous series preview:
Dane Dunning enjoyed the most successful season of his career last year, throwing more than 170 innings with an ERA under four. His FIP was a half a run higher than that and his Statcast expected ERA another quarter of a run higher. Some good contact management and a healthy bit of good luck when batters put his pitches in play accounts for most of the discrepancy between his actual results and his peripherals. With a repertoire geared towards pitching to contact, he’ll always be at the mercy of the batted ball gods.
Despite running the highest strikeout rate of his career, Dunning’s ERA and FIP have risen to career highs thanks to a gigantic home run spike. In his last outing against the Mariners, he allowed four runs in 4.1 innings, striking out seven.
The Big Picture:
The Astros lost their series to the Giants earlier this week and will return home to host the Tigers this weekend. Looking around the wider American League schedule this weekend, the Guardians, Yankees, and Royals are on the road in Toronto, Boston, and Los Angeles, respectively, while the Orioles host the Phillies