Series Preview: Resilient Mets Host Surging Padres

The New York Mets (30-37) were two outs away from losing another series against the Miami Marlins on Thursday, but J.D. Martinez had something else to say about that. A walk-off two-run home run, the first walk-off of Martinez’s illustrious career, totally changed the mood around the team going into this weekend. Within a few minutes, the Mets went from disappointment to pure elation. 8 wins in their last 12 games has the group moving in the right direction, but can they continue their winning ways this weekend?

A surging San Diego Padres (37-35) team is coming to town off the back of a three-game sweep of the Oakland Athletics. Luis Arráez, who the team acquired in early May, is hitting .351 as a Padre. While he is swinging a hot bat, the team’s offense as a whole has been a bit inconsistent. The Padres have scored three runs or less in six of their last 12 games. With Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jurickson Profar have strong seasons, better at bats throughout the lineup will be key. The Mets will see a few new arms for the Padres with Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove on the injured list. Let’s take a look at some notes for the three pitching matchups this weekend.

Friday, June 14, 2024: RHP Matt Waldron (4-5, 3.76 ERA) vs. LHP Sean Manaea (3-3, 4.30 ERA)

Matt Waldron, a 27-year-old right-hander, has stepped up in a big way for the Padres this season. The rotation needed solidity at the back, and he is certainly provided that. After a slow start to the season, Waldron is 3-1 with a 1.78 ERA over his last six appearances. He has allowed two runs or less in all of those starts, throwing at least six innings in each of the last three. Waldron loves to utilize his knuckleball, throwing it 37.6% of the time. Expect to see a four-seam fastball, sweeper and sinker from him as well. Waldron has done a great job away from home, going 2-1 with a 3.22 ERA in seven road starts.

Sean Manaea entered the month of June with a 3-1 record and a 3.16 ERA. He and Luis Severino were the Mets’ two best starters. Results have not been good for Manaea in recent weeks; surrendering 11 earned runs over his last 9 1/3 innings. The left-hander got a start during the London Series last week, but failed to get through the fourth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies. A single in front of Starling Marte could have limited the damage had it been caught. Instead, the inning was extended, and Whit Merrifield would hit a three-run home run to break the game open. Manaea needs a strong performance against his former team on Friday.

Saturday, June 15, 2024: RHP Adam Mazur (0-1, 9.00 ERA) vs. LHP José Quintana (1-5, 5.29 ERA)

Adam Mazur, the No. 5 prospect in the Padres system, debuted against Los Angeles Angels on June 4. He could not have asked for a better beginning to his big league career, allowing one run on two hits in six innings. Things did not go as smoothly in his second start, giving up eight runs on eight hits in three innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks last Sunday. His resolve will be put to the test after such a difficult performance. Mazur primarily works with a two-pitch mix, using a four-seam fastball and a slider 76% of the time. He also has a changeup and curveball, although he has only really gone to those pitches against left-handed hitters.

José Quintana’s recent run of struggles continued in London last weekend. The veteran opened the game by allowing the first three hitters to reach base, immediately putting himself under immense pressure. A double play limited the damage, but 26 pitches in the first inning put him behind the eight ball. Quintana only managed to throw 3 2/3 innings, surrendering three runs on six hits in 69 pitches. Long innings have sometimes been an issue for him, shortening his outings and putting more pressure on the bullpen.

Sunday, June 16, 2024: RHP Dylan Cease (6-5, 3.36 ERA) vs. RHP Tylor Megill (1-3, 3.51 ERA)

Dylan Cease has proven to be an excellent addition to the Padres pitching staff, regaining a lot of the production he showed with the Chicago White Sox back in 2022. The right-hander earned his sixth win of the season on Monday against the Oakland Athletics, only allowing one run despite giving up eight hits in six innings. That was his eighth quality start of the season or his second straight. Cease operates with a heavy usage of his four-seam fastball and slider, mixing in a knuckle curve and a sweeper from time to time. His first and only start against the Mets was as a member of the White Sox back in 2019, allowing four runs in seven innings, earning the loss.

Tylor Megill has looked great in moments since he returned from the injured list, most notably against the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 28. But besides that outing, it has been good and bad for the right-hander. His last start against the Marlins on Tuesday is a perfect example. Megill was given an early 2-1 lead, but in the fifth inning, things started to unravel. Three hits and a walk helped the Marlins jump ahead, forcing the Mets to go to the bullpen after 4 2/3 innings. He struck out eight, but his inability to avoid that long inning forced him out of the game early. Megill is 1-0 against the Padres in his career, throwing five innings in April of last season.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Manny Machado (SD)

Manny Machado got off to a slow start after off-season elbow surgery, but that has all changed in recent weeks. The third baseman is slashing .313/.382/.438/.820 in his last 23 games. The one thing missing for Machado is the home run ball. He has a 2.3% home run rate for the season, which would be his lowest rate since 2013 (2.0% with the Baltimore Orioles). The seven-time All-Star has crushed the Mets in the past, hitting .293 with seven home runs, 24 runs batted in and 12 walks in 32 games against them.

Brandon Nimmo (NYM)

The Mets’ willingness to move Francisco Lindor into the leadoff role has helped turn his season around. While his bat has heated up, Brandon Nimmo has not adjusted well to his new spot in the lineup. The 31-year-old is slashing .214/.298/.321/.619 over his last 94 plate appearances, with most of those coming out of the three-hole. Nimmo has a 42.85% strikeout rate during that stretch, a major jump from his 22.5% career strikeout rate. Carlos Mendoza moved him into the two-hole last night, going 0-for-3 with two strikeouts. A big series against the Padres could go a long way in helping Nimmo regain his confidence at the plate.

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