Series Preview: Mets at Guardians

Welcome back, Francisco Lindor

The New York Metropolitans arrive in Cleveland today for three-game series against the Guardians.

The Mets are in a bit of a rough stretch, 3-7 in their last 10, and 21-25 overall with a -13 run differential. New York ranks 12th in MLB in team wRC+ at 100 wRC+, 22nd in Defensive WAR at -14.4, 17th in baserunning runs above average at -1.1, 22nd in starting pitcher FIP in 4.28, and fourth in bullpen FIP at 3.45. So, the Mets look better than their record and run differential might indicate... but their defense, overall, has been horrific which tends to produce this effect.

The Guardians are 30-17 with a +59 run differential, on a four-game win streak and a three-game sweep of the Minnesota Twins. Cleveland ranks ninth in MLB with a team wRC+ of 103 wRC+, sixth in Defensive WAR at 3.8, 11th in baserunning runs above average at 0, 23rd in MLB in starting pitcher. FIP at 4.36, and first in MLB in bullpen FIP at 2.70.

Storylines about with Francisco Lindor making his first return trip to Cleveland since being traded and Carlos Carrasco facing a team he struggled while pitching for over the past two seasons.

Matchups:

Game One: Trevor Megill, RHP (4.15 FIP) vs. Ben Lively, RHP (4.36 FIP) 6:10PM EST, Monday, May 20th

Analysis: Lively will begin the Guardians’ efforts to handle the Mets best hitters who have been, so far, Mark Vientos with a 178 wRC+, J.D. Martinez with a 141 wRC+, D.J. Stewart and Brandon Nimmo both with 133 wRC+, Pete Alonso at 117 wRC+ and Starling Marte at 104 wRC+. Megill will be returning from a rehab assignment and likely on a limited pitch count. It will be important for the Guardians to get scoring started a little earlier vs. the Mets given that the Mets bullpen is very good.

Game Two: Adrian Houser, RHP (5.20 FIP) vs. Carlos Carrasco, RHP (5.34 FIP) 6:10PM EST, Tuesday, May 21st

Analysis: This would be a great game for Kyle Manzardo’s first major league homer, but hopefully the best Guardians’ hitters, David Fry 184 wRC+, Josh Naylor 138 wRC+, Jose Ramirez 119 wRC+, Andres Gimenez 111 wRC+ and Tyler Freeman 103 wRC+, will feast on Houser who has had a pretty terrible season so far. As mentioned above, this will be a revenge game of sorts for Carlos Carrasco seeing his former team and for Francisco Lindor, of course, throughout this series.

Game Three: Jose Quintana, RHP (4.67 FIP) vs. Triston McKenzie, RHP (4.88 FIP) 1:10PM EST, Wednesday, May 22nd

Analysis: I want to see a third straight good-great start from McKenzie. Meanwhile, I’m astounded that Jose Quintana is still only 35 years old. Wow.

It would be great to get a series win vs. the Mets. Let’s see if the Guardians keep a struggling team from finding their footing and continue the good vibes from the weekend debut of the Cleveland City Connects and sweep of their chief division rival.