In defense of the contact play

It confounds fans. But there’s math behind it.

Last night, the Royals had been unable to get much offense going against Blue Jays lefty Yusei Kikuchi. When Adam Frazier doubled off reliever Erik Swanson in the seventh, they had an opportunity to cut into the 5-2 deficit. Frazier advanced to third on a fly ball hit by Kyle Isbel, and with one out, he had a terrific chance to score.

Michael Massey hit a grounder to first and Frazier was off on contact. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. threw home and got Frazier at the plate for the second out. Dairon Blanco struck out and the inning ended with another goose egg on the scoreboard for the Royals. On social media, fans cursed the dreaded “contact play.”

Even before last night’s game, the Royals had run the “contact play” four times this year, and like Monday evening, the previous four times resulted in a player out at home plate.

• April 3 vs. Baltimore - With one out in the first of a scoreless game, Vinnie Pasquantino grounds to pitcher Corbin Burnes and Bobby Witt Jr. is out at home after a rundown
• April 5 vs. Chicago - With one out in the sixth of a 1-1 game, Adam Frazier chops it to the left of the pitcher who throws home to get Salvador Perez at home
• April 9 vs. Houston - With one out in the sixth of a 3-3 game, Hunter Renfroe chops one to Alex Bregman at third, who throws out MJ Melendez at home
• April 19 vs. Baltimore - With one out in the seventh, up 6-4, Vinnie Pasquantino chops it to first, and Maikel Garcia is thrown out at home

Fans see a guy thrown out at home - usually quite easily - and scratch their heads wondering “what the heck was the third base coach thinking?” Heck, I was all ready to write a scathing criticism of the much-scorned “contact play.”

But there is a method to the madness.

To those unfamiliar, the “contact play” is run when there is a runner at third with one out. The runner will take off as soon as he sees the hitter has made downward contact on the ball (that is, it’s not going to be catchable for an out) and force a throw home. The reasoning is that if there’s a bad throw, the runner is safe. And if there is a good throw and they get him at home, you’ve just cost yourself a base or two to risk getting a run without costing yourself an out since the runner was going to be out at first anyway.

Here’s how manager Matt Quatraro put it after the game:

“Regardless, we’re going to have one guy on base regardless after that play’s over so it's not the end of the world that he’s thrown at the plate. We got a guy on third with two outs or a guy on first with two outs we’re down three still at the time.”

With a runner at third and one out, and a ground ball in play, the team has two options: (a) keep the runner at third, the runner is thrown at first, leaving a runner at third with two outs; or (b) send the runner from third and gamble for a run, and if he doesn’t get it, you have a runner at first with two outs.

Analysts like Tom Tango have compiled “run expectancy tables” calculating the likelihood of a run being scored depending on the number of outs and baserunners, using data compiled over decades of baseball. According to a table compiled over 2010 to 2015, the run expectancy for a runner at third with two outs is 0.353. The run expectancy for a runner at first with two outs is 0.224. Your chances of scoring went from “not great” to “not great, but slightly worse”.

Ideally, the runner coming home can get in a run down like Bobby Witt Jr. did on April 3. The hitter, Vinnie Pasquantino, actually made it all the way to third, meaning the Royals hadn’t risked anything at all, they were in the same position they would have been had Bobby not run (albeit now with a slower baserunner). And if Vinnie had even gotten to just second, the run expectancy still would have been 0.319, nearly the same as if they had a runner at third - which makes sense considering that with two outs, a runner will likely only score if driven home by a base hit, regardless of whether they are on second or third.

That’s also why the play should only be run with one out. If you run the contact play with no outs, you risk losing the runner at third, who could still easily score after the play with one out via a base hit, sacrifice fly, or ground out. Obviously, there really isn’t any contact play with two outs since the defense will just try to get the last out of the inning at first base. But if you know you’re going to have two outs soon anyway, and it doesn’t matter too much where the runner is - a hit is likely needed to score him regardless - why not take the chance?

It just sucks because as fans, we see a guy getting thrown out at home, usually in hilariously awful fashion - watch Salvy get thrown out in the clip above! And I think in our minds we think losing a runner at third is bad, and ignore the fact he has simply been substituted by another runner.

But the contact play is a gamble with very little downside. And on the rare chance it works, well, you’ve stolen a run in exciting fashion.