Mets series preview: Party like it’s 2015!

Time flies!

It has been nine years since the Royals marched into Citi Field and won Game 5 of the 2015 World Series, securing the second title in club history. Salvador Perez is the only player from that series still on one of these teams, and only three other players from that series are even on a big league roster in 2024 (Michael Conforto, Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz).

Last year’s Mets team had a disappointing 87-loss season after major investments by owner Steve Cohen. The moves this off-season were much more understated as the team added role players Harrison Bader, Tyrone Taylor, and Joey Wendle, and short-term starting pitchers like Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, and Adrian Houser. Instead, the team is banking on some younger players to improve like catcher Francisco Alvarez, third baseman Brett Baty, and pitcher José Butto.

Kansas City Royals (9-4) at New York Mets (5-7) at Citi Field, Queens, NY

Royals: 5.54 runs scored/game (7th in MLB), 2.54 runs allowed/game (1st)

Mets: 4.50 runs scored/game (16th), 4.58 runs allowed/game (16th)

The Mets had trouble scoring runs the first week of the season, but exploded for 16 runs yesterday against the Braves. All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor has drawn ire from Mets fans for a for a 5-for-51 start. Former home run champ Pete Alonso has also gotten off to a slow start, although he has four hits over his last two games, including his team-leading third home run. Brett Baty and Francisco Alvarez are both former top 100 prospects who are off to a good start in their second year of MLB action.

Starling Marte missed a lot of action last year with leg and groin injuries, but is back to getting on base, albeit without much power. Bader was signed to a one-year, $9.5 million deal, but has yet to get an extra-base hit so far. As a team, the Mets have the tenth-highest walk rate, with the fifth-lowest strikeout rate. The team has some speed, but have attempted just eight steals (successful on six tries).

All statistics are 2023 numbers.

Luis Severino was an All-Star with the Yankees, but battled injuries for a few years and was awful last year, signing a one-year deal with the Mets. He gave up 11 hits in his Mets debut, but with no walks, and he has a 3.60 ERA and 13 strikeouts in 10 innings through two starts. Opponents hit .355 against his 96 mph four-seamer last year, but he has had better success with it this year. He also throws a sinker, cutter, slider, and change up, and has added a sweeper this year.

Sean Manaea is a former Royals first-round pick who signed a two-year, $28 million deal with the Mets, his fourth team in four years. He has allowed just four hits and one run over 11 innings so far, earning a win his last time out against the Reds. His sweeper can be pretty unhittable, especially for lefties. Overall, lefties hit just .200/.273/.297 against him last year.

The Mets have yet to announce a starter for Sunday, but are expected to recall José Buttó to make the start. He was called up last week to pitch in a doubleheader against the Tigers, giving up just one run on three hits in six innings of work in the no-decision. The 26-year-old right-hander has a fastball that sits 91-93 with a good sinker, a slider/sweeper, and a change up that seems to be a work in progress. He had a groundball rate of 41.5 percent in limited action last year.

All statistics are 2023 numbers.

Mets relievers collectively have a 3.44 ERA, tenth-best in baseball, with the fifth-best strikeout rate. Getting All-Star closer Edwin Díaz back has been a plus after he missed all of last year with a patellar tendon injury. He has yet to to give up a run this year in five outings, with opponents hitting just .063 against him with 8 strikeouts in 18 plate appearances. Relievers Drew Smith and Brooks Raley have also yet to give up a run, although both have walked a few hitters. Reed Garrett could be a nice find with 9 strikeouts in 5 1/3 shutout innings. Tyler Jay made his MLB debut Thursday at the age of 30.

All statistics are 2023 numbers.

The Mets lost their five games in a row at home, but have come back with road series wins over the Reds and Braves. They have some star power, but ZIPS projects them as a worse team than the Royals right now. If the Royals are for real, this is a winnable road series for them.