Twins series preview: Let’s get it started
The road to a Central Division title goes through the Twins.
The Twins are the defending Central Division title champs and the odds-on favorite to win this year, but as of today they are tied with the Royals with a 0-0 record. The Twins won 87 games and their first post-season series in over 30 years last year, but made no significant upgrades to the club other than adding former Royals first baseman Carlos Santana. instead, they will rely on improvement from young players like Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, and Matt Wallner, with hopes Byron Buxton and their pitching staff can stay healthy.
The Twins took 9 of 13 contests from the Royals last year, and swept the Royals in Kansas City for the first series of the year.
All statistics are 2023 numbers.
Minnesota Twins (87-75) vs. Kansas City Royals (56-106) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Twins: 4.80 runs scored/game (10thin MLB), 4.07 runs allowed/game (4th)
Royals: 4.17 runs scored/game (23rd in MLB), 5.30 runs allowed/game (28th)
The Twins relied on the long ball a lot last year, finishing third in home runs with 12 different players ending with a double-digit home run total. They got solid rookie performances from infielders Julien and Lewis, which helped make up for the disappointing season from high-priced veteran Carlos Correa.
Matt Wallner also played well in his rookie season, overshadowing Byron Buxton who still hasn’t appeared in 100 games in a season since 2017. The Twins drew the fourth-most walks and no one struck out more than Twins hitters. Only four teams attempted fewer steals than the Twins, with reserve infielder Willi Castro the only player with more than 13 steals last year.
All statistics are 2023 numbers.
The Twins had the fifth-best ERA in baseball last year, with the most strikeouts and fourth-fewest walks. Sonny Gray departed for St. Louis, so Pablo López takes over as staff as with the Opening Day assignment. The right-hander is 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA in four starts against the Royals, throwing 5 1⁄3 innings of shutout ball in his only start at Kauffman Stadium. He throws a fastball in the mid-90s, but is in the 95th percentile for chase rate, and was seventh among all qualified starters in strikeout rate last year.
Joe Ryan got off to a great start and had his ERA under three in late June, but had a terrible second half with a 6.62 ERA over his last 14 starts. He has won all three of his career starts against the Royals with a 1.02 ERA. He throws a four-seamer, splitter, and sweeper, and has been working on a sinker this spring. He had the eighth-lowest walk rate of any pitcher with at least 160 innings.
Bailey Ober, along with López and Ryan, were among the top 15 pitchers in baseball in strikeout-to-walk ratio. He only throws in the low-90s, although there were some reports of a velocity uptick this spring. He still misses bats by getting a 30 percent whiff rate on both his changeup and slider.
All statistics are 2023 numbers.
The Twins bullpen has taken a hit from the injury bug with closer Jhoan Duran, newly-acquired reliever Justin Topa, and lefty reliever Caleb Thielbar all on the Injured List to begin the year. Hard-throwing Griffin Jax will likely get save opportunities initially with his wipeout slider. The rest of the bullpen includes a lot of unknowns - lefty Steven Okert is the only other reliever who pitched in at least 35 innings last year. Brock Stewart was fantastic when healthy last year, but missed most of the second half with an elbow injury. Former Royals pitcher Josh Staumont is coming back from thoracic outlet surgery, and was held off the roster to begin the year due to injury.
All statistics are 2023 numbers.
The Royals will face two 2023 division winners - the Twins and Orioles - to begin the first week of the season, giving them a good test early on. If the Royals want to be the best in this division, they have to beat the best.