Current State of the Mets Rotation

The Mets fortified their rotation on Wednesday when they signed veteran left-hander José Quintana to a two-year contract. Quintana joins Justin Verlander as new members of the Mets rotation, replacing the departed Jacob deGrom and Taijuan Walker, who signed with the Rangers and Phillies, respectively.

It seems likely the Mets are not finished acquiring starters this offseason, but it’s a good time to take the temperature of where the rotation stands if the season were to start today.

The Aces

The top of the Mets rotation will begin with two men who have combined to win six Cy Young Awards in Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

Scherzer turned in, statistically, one of his best-career seasons last year with a 2.29 ERA in 145.1 IP. However, he did miss time with injuries and was not as his best at the end of the year, turning in back-to-back poor starts against the Braves and in the postseason against the Padres. Still, it’s safe to assume that, if healthy, Scherzer will remain one of the elite pitchers in the National League in 2023.

Verlander is coming off a resurgence in 2022, winning his third-career AL Cy Young and helping lead the Astros to a World Series Championship. Verlander signed with the Mets on a two-year, $86 million deal earlier this week, just days after they lost Jacob deGrom to Texas. Verlander’s age is certainly a risk, but there’s little sign he’s about to slow down. The 39-year-old finished with a 220 ERA+ in 2022 coming off of Tommy John surgery, and, along with Scherzer, gives the Mets arguably the best one-two punch in MLB.

The Veterans

Slotting in after Scherzer and Verlander, the Mets now have two reliable veteran starters that figure to be prominent members of their rotation in Carlos Carrasco and Quintana.

Carrasco, who had his team option picked up earlier this offseason, has been up and down in his two seasons in Queens. After missing most of the 2021 season and struggling when he did return,  Carrasco bounced back with a solid 2022. The 35-year-old finished last season with a 3.97 ERA in 152 IP and the Mets would likely be happy with a similar performance in 2023.

Quintana has bounced around in his major-league career but pitched last season with the Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals. Quintana had one of his better seasons as a pro in 2022, especially after being acquired by St. Louis. Quintana had a 2.01 ERA in 12 starts for the Cardinals down the stretch, and finished with a 2.93 ERA and a 137 ERA+ in total last season.

The Depth Options

If the season started today, the Mets would likely choose either David Peterson or Tylor Megill to round out their rotation, although that may change by spring training.

Peterson had an excellent 2022 under unique circumstances. Although he was constantly jumping back and forth between the New York and Syracuse Mets rotations and even a few stints in the Mets bullpen, Peterson consistently provided steady innings when the team needed a spot starter or when one of their pitchers went on the injured list. He finished 2022 with a 3.83 ERA in 28 games, including 19 starts.

Megill’s 2022 was a disappointment overall, mostly due to injuries. Megill, the Mets 2022 Opening Day starter, pitched in only 15 games due to multiple long stints in the IL. When he returned late in the season Megill transitioned to the bullpen, but struggled in limited opportunities there. Still, the Mets know he is a capable pitcher when healthy and he figures to have multiple opportunities in the big leagues in 2023.

The Mets will also have Joey Lucchesi coming back in 2023. Lucchesi missed all of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but started eight games for the Mets in 2021. He could be a starter or long-relief option out of the bullpen.

New York also acquired Elieser Hernández from the Marlins this offseason, and he could fill in as a starter should the Mets suffer injuries to their rotation. Ten of Hernández’s 20 appearances for Miami came as a starting pitcher last season.

Free Agent Options

While the Mets could certainly do worse than a Scherzer-Verlander-Carrasco-Quintana-Peterson rotation, it’s expected that they are not done shopping just yet. The most likely options at this stage appear to be the Mets either signing Japanese pitcher Kodai Senga, or reuniting with Chris Bassitt.

Senga has been linked to the Mets in recent weeks, and would provide an intriguing middle-of-the-rotation option. Meanwhile, now that the Mets have already gone over the highest CBT tax threshold, perhaps they may be more inclined to match offers for Bassitt, who was a reliable No. 3 starter for the team in 2022.

If the Mets don’t sign Senga or Bassitt, other options still available include Nathan Eovaldi, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling, Johnny Cueto, Corey Kluber and former Mets Noah Syndergaard and Michael Wacha.  Carlos Rodón is also still a free agent, but it’s highly unlikely the Mets would meet his price range after signing Verlander.

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