Further Examining Jameson Taillon’s Potential Fit With The Mets

After the news of Jacob deGrom signing a five-year deal with the Texas Rangers on Friday night, several are now curious as to how the Mets are going to address their rotation. Well, even before the deGrom news, it was no secret that the Mets had some rebuilding to do in hopes to improve their starting rotation. This all due to deGrom, Chris Bassitt, and Taijuan Walker becoming free agents, subsequently leaving at least two gaping holes.

Well, one of the names New York has seemingly been tied to most this off-season is not a pitcher in the upper echelon of names, but one that would bring nice stability to the middle of the rotation. That being former Pittsburgh Pirates’ hurler Jameson Taillon. The Mets were first rumored on Taillon a few weeks ago, and after the deGrom deal, as recently as Saturday by several in the industry.

Worth prefacing, an acquisition of a pitcher of Taillon’s level would not stop the Mets from acquiring a pitcher from the upper echelon of the market. As SNY reported on Friday night, the Mets are expected to sign/acquire two starting pitchers. One top-tier starter and one from he mid-level Taillon tier.

Why Would Taillon Be A Fit? 

Taillon is your prototypical middle-of-the-rotation pitcher. His numbers throughout his career has always resembled such. Throughout the 31-year-old’s six-year career, his ERA has been no lower than 3.20 but no higher than 4.44. Meanwhile, his FIP has no lower than 3.46 and no higher than 4.43. He has been the definition of consistency throughout his career.

Taillon’s stuff maxes out at around 94 MPH. Similar to potentially former Mets’ pitcher Chris Bassitt, he builds his game upon consistently blending six different pitches. Last season, he threw his four-seam fastball 35.7% of the time. Meanwhile, the other five pitches he threw at a rate between 8.5% and 18.8% of the time. His game is built on keeping opposing hitters guessing on what is coming. This explains why the rate at which opponents chase Taillon’s pitches has been in the league’s 60th percentile or better every season he has been in the major leagues.

Further to his style of pitching, Taillon is not exactly a strikeout inducer. His strikeout rate in his career has fluttered in the low 20% range to even the high teens. This figure has usually ranked slightly below the league’s 50th percentile. On the other sides of things, Taillon does not walk batters. His walk rate last year was the second lowest of his career and ranked all the way in the league’s 94th percentile. This has been a theme in his career.

Overall, throughout his career, Taillon has consistently shown himself to be an effective third-or-fourth starter in any rotation. He relies on a plethora of different pitches to invoke chasing and, at his best, soft contact. He does not blow hitters away, but is effective enough to turn in value equivalent to a strong middle-of-the-rotation starter.

Potential Concerns 

There are two main concerns surrounding the right-handed Florida native. These being Taillon’s struggles with injuries throughout his career, and the likelihood that the contract he receives does not exactly match up with his true value as a third-or-fourth slotted pitcher.

Taillon missed both the 2014 and 2015 seasons with surgeries, one of which was Tommy John. Then, in 2017, he had to be shut down as he was treated for testicular cancer. Thankfully, Taillon was back and fully healthy for a full 2018 season before injury unfortunately struck again in 2019. He had surgery to address a forearm issue and to make revisions on his UCL which was repaired during his Tommy John surgery back in 2014. His recovery knocked him out for the duration of the 2020 season as well.

The past two seasons with the Yankees, Taillon has been relatively healthy throwing 144 1/3 innings and 177 1/3 innings. In evaluating whether or not a long-term deal should be extended to Taillon, this should certainly be taken into consideration.

The big question surrounding Taillon is how much he is going to get paid. All of the reports have referenced that he is going to be in for a huge payday. And given how the starting pitcher market has been trending, this appears all but certain. How much, realistically, should you be paying for a middle-of-the-rotation reliever?

Fangraphs has Taillon projected at a three-year, $36-million deal. Meanwhile, MLB Trade Rumors is projecting a four-years, $56-million contract. The $14 million a season deal is more likely, and given the market, it would not be surprising to see a figure surpass that projection.

For comparison’s sake, Carlos Carrasco, one of the Mets’ projected current middle-of-the-rotation pitchers, is scheduled to make $14 million this upcoming season. This appears to be a very fair price for Carrasco, especially when you take in account a buy out worth $3 million essentially making him worth $11 million. Expect Taillon’s number to surpass this figure, comfortably.

Final Thoughts

As he been described in detail above, no doubt the 31-year-old Taillon can serve as an effective middle-of-the-rotation piece. He, when healthy, has shown to be very consistent, and given his age, would not be a one-or-two year-and-done type of player. He would be a fixture, unless due to injury, for years to come.

Though, there is some concern. The deal Taillon is bound to receive will likely automatically be perceived as an overpay due to market conditions. Though, that is the risk you take when you have to address a very desolate rotation in the off-season. Though, even at the potential price, he would still be a better option than say guys like Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling, Corey Kluber, Tylor Megill, etc.

Let’s say the Mets do convert on what was reported by SNY above and sign two pitchers. One in the upper-echelon tier, and one on the Taillon level. This is what New York’s rotation can look like next season:

1. Max Scherzer
2. Carlos Rodon / Justin Verlander
3. Jameson Taillon
4. Carlos Carrasco
5. David Peterson

Of course, there are several other pitchers available on the market. Regardless, it will certainly be interesting to see what direction general manager Billy Eppler and his staff take.

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