The 2022 Rule 5 Draft Preview

Following a partial one-year hiatus brought on by the 2021 lockout, the Rule 5 Draft returns to the Major League Baseball Winter Meetings next week. There was no major league portion of the draft in 2021, but there was still a minor league draft that saw 51 players get chosen including the Mets taking right-hander pitchers Alex Valverde and Carlos Ocampo and the Mets losing right-hander pitchers Allan Winans and Tommy Wilson.

The draft used to be seen as the annual wrap-up of the Winter Meetings that took place on Thursday, but this year it will be on Wednesday, Dec. 7.

Before we take a look at the available players in the Rule 5 Draft and players the Mets didn’t protect, let’s go through the rules of the draft.

• Teams must have open space on their 40-man roster to make a selection in the Rule 5 Draft. They can make as many selections as they have open spots and the draft order is based on record (unless of course, a team has no open 40 spots). For example, the Mets pick 22nd (assuming all teams in front of them have open 40 spots) in the Rule 5 Draft and could theoretically make up to seven picks.
• The drafting team must pay the player’s original team $100K.
• Player must stay on the 26-man roster for the entirety of the season.
• If the drafting team wants to remove player from the active roster, they are placed on waivers. If not claimed, they are offered back to the original team for $50K. If they clear waivers and the original team doesn’t want them back for that price, they then can be sent to the minors by the team that drafted them.
• A Rule 5 pick can be placed on the major league injured list, but he must be on the active roster for 90 days to avoid the aforementioned roster restrictions during the next season.
• Teams can trade drafted players, and the roster restrictions stay the same.
• The drafting team can also work out a trade with the player’s original team to acquire his full rights, thus allowing them to option him to the minors without roster restrictions.
• Players that need to be added to the 40-man roster to protect from Rule 5 Draft: players signed at 18 or younger who have spent five seasons in the minors or players signed at 19 or older that have spent four seasons in the minors
• There’s also a minor league portion of the Rule 5 Draft that has no roster restrictions for the drafting team, the player assumes his contract when they draft him and that’s the case until they become a free agent. The drafting team pays the player’s old team $25,000. In addition to the 40-man roster, teams submit a list of 38 players they want to protect from the minor league portion of the draft.

The most recent example of the Mets getting value from the Rule 5 Draft is when they selected right-hander Adam Oller in the minor league portion in 2019. The Mets would later use Oller as a trade chip when they acquired veteran starter Chris Bassitt from the A’s before the 2022 season.

In the last 2020 MLB portion of the Rule 5, we saw a number of players taken that ended up helping the team that drafted them including RHP Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox), Akil Baddoo (Tigers), RHP Tyler Wells (Orioles), and RHP Trevor Stephan (Guardians). That same year, two pitchers were taken in the minor league portion and found big league success since in lefty Zach Jackson (A’s) and righty Seth Martinez (Astros).

There are also examples of players that were available in the Rule 5 Draft that wasn’t taken and then went on to have solid big league careers including 2022 batting champ Jeff McNeil and Dodgers slugger Max Muncy.

Let’s take a look at a few of the names that will likely get drafted next Thursday.

Thad Ward, RHP – Red Sox 

1/16/1997, 6’3”, 192 pounds

One of the higher rated prospects available in the draft according to MLB Pipeline that has him No. 15 in the Red Sox system. The former fifth-round pick pitched to a 2.28 ERA and struck out 66 batters in 51 innings across four levels this season in his return from Tommy John surgery. He finishes the regular season in Double-A Portland where he had a 2.43 ERA and struck out 41 batters in 31 1/3 innings. The right-hander finished his 2022 season off with a 2.84 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings in the hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League.

Ward has started all 51 of his appearances in the minor leagues and started three of four in the AFL. He features a deep mix of pitches with four and two-seam fastballs at 91-95 mph, upper-80s cutter, low-80s slider, and a changeup.

Corey Julks, OF – Astros

2/27/96, 6’1”, 185 pounds

The former eighth-round pick blasted 31 home runs in Triple-A for the Astros this season in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. The right-handed hitter slashed .270/.351/.503 with 21 steals, 22 doubles, 89 RBIs, and 128 strikeouts in 130 games. Julks was put on the development list in June of 2021 and during that time he made a swing change that turned him into a power hitter. Prior to that time, Julks had 17 career home runs in 1,084 at-bats and since he has 43 in 725 at-bats.

This home run by Julks reportedly went 486 feet!

https://twitter.com/SLSpaceCowboys/status/1562280595526393856

Julks has played all three outfield spots as well as second and third base. Here’s the defensive breakdown for the 2022 season: 4 G at 2B, 4 in CF, 16 at DH, 25 in LF, 38 in RF, and 49 at 3B. Better than average speed and an average arm makes him a solid defender in the corner spots and a bit stretched in center. MLB Pipeline currently had Julks ranked as the Astros’ No. 30 prospect.

Erik Miller, LHP – Phillies

2/13/1998, 6’5”, 240 pounds

The former fourth-round pick struck out the only batter he faced in the Futures Game this year. MLB Pipeline has the big lefty currently ranked as the No. 7 prospect in the Phillies farm system. Miller pitched to a 3.54 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and struck out 62 batters in 48 1/3 innings this season between Double-A and Triple-A. He gave up only 39 hits during that span, though he did issue 31 walks.

Miller has experience as both a starter and a reliever, but finished the 2022 season off with 20 straight appearances out of the bullpen. He would almost certainly be used as a reliever if taken in the Rule 5 Draft to maximize his fastball that sits 92-95 and has been up to 98 mph. His best secondary is a changeup that generates a ton of whiffs and he also uses a tight slider in the upper-80s.

Elvis Alvarado, RHP – Tigers

2/23/1999, 6’4”, 183 pounds

Power, power, and more power are what Elvis brings to the table. He uses two differently shaped fastballs — one a firm four-seamer and a sinker with late life — that are both high-90s and have hit 100 mph. Alvarado also has a power slider in the low-90s. Alvarado switched from outfield to pitching full-time in 2018 when he was a part of the Nationals system. Alvarado was a minor league Rule 5 pick back in 2021.

The 23-year-old had a 2.72 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and struck out 63 batters over 59 1/3 innings between three Tigers affiliates including topping out at Double-A. One of the most impressive things for this young hard thrower that has only been pitching full time for a few years is that he walked only 18 walks (2.7 BB/9) this season and gave up just three home runs.

Alvarado is currently ranked by MLB Pipeline as the No. 26 prospect in the Tigers farm system. He has also thrown seven scoreless innings in the Dominican Winter League this offseason.

Nolan Hoffman, RHP – Orioles

8/9/1997, 6’4”, 190 pounds

Hoffman is the least likely player to get drafted of the group I’m writing about, but he’s a sidearmer and I’m a sucker for pitchers throwing from a different angle. That said, Hoffman struck out a whopping 17 batters in 12 1/3 innings in the hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League this fall and led the league with his 1.5 BB/9.

Nolan Hoffman slow-mo. #Orioles pic.twitter.com/HIezbaNhrk

— Josh Norris (@jnorris427) October 11, 2022

Hoffman was the first overall pick in the minor league portion of the 2021 Rule 5 Draft from the Mariners. The former fifth-round pick had a 3.64 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and allowed only one home run in 27 1/3 regular season inning this year mostly in Double-A.

Other players that could get selected include LHP Jose Lopez (Rays), OF/C Blake Sabol (Pirates), RHP Nic Enright (Guardians), LHP T.J. Sikkema (Royals), INF Logan Davidson (A’s), LHP Antoine Kelly (Rangers), OF Kameron Misner (Rays), OF Ross Adolph (Astros via Mets in J.D. Davis trade), RHP Moises Lugo (Padres), 3B Andres Chaparro (Yankees), 1B Ryan Noda (Dodgers), RHP Jayden Murray (Astros), and OF Dominic Canzone (D-Backs).

Could the Mets Lose Someone? 

The Mets decided not to add any of their prospects to the 40-man roster before the Rule 5 protection deadline with some Mets fans being surprised that they left outfield prospect Jake Mangum exposed. Mangum hit well when on the field in 2022 with a .306/.363/.441 slash line between Double-A and Triple-A for the Mets. He missed time with a back injury and will be 27 on Opening Day, and Mangum simply isn’t the typical type of player taken in the Rule 5 because glove-first outfielders with a questionable bat are available via minor league free agency and don’t have to stay on the 40-man roster all season — see Travis Jankowski.

According to MLB Pipeline, the Mets left four of their top 30 prospects unprotected heading into the draft in RHP Junior Santos, RHP Jordany Ventura, OF Stanley Consuegra, and LHP Javier Atencio. The 21-year-old Atencio was my highest-ranked (No. 16) Mets prospect left exposed, but he hasn’t pitched an inning above Low-A. Consuegra is No. 17 on my list, though he has yet to take an at-bat above A-Ball. Another player left the Mets didn’t protect from my top 30 is infielder William Lugo (No. 22), but he’s another player who hasn’t reached Double-A yet.

Typically, players who have reached Double-A are the majority of the draftees in the major league Rule 5 and a majority of those are pitchers. With that in mind, the only Mets prospect I believe has a chance of getting drafted is right-hander Dedniel Nunez. The 26-year-old was actually taken in the Rule 5 back in 2020 by the Giants before needing Tommy John surgery in 2021 and then getting sent back to the Mets before the 2022 season. Núñez moved to the bullpen when he returned to the Mets that saw a velo bump putting him in the high-90s at times.

Could the Mets Draft Someone?

The straightforward answer is yes, the Mets have multiple empty spots on their 40-man roster and that is the only requirement to choose a player in the Rule 5 Draft. Will they? I would guess that they don’t because while the 40-man roster is currently at only 33 (which could certainly change before the draft), the Mets are likely going to sign in the neighborhood of six to nine players this offseason to a major league deal, putting them on the 40. Plus, the Mets are looking to build depth with optionable arms like Stephen Ridings, Elieser Hernandez, William Woods, etc., and you can’t option Rule 5 draftees to the minors without exposing them to waivers.

All in all, I would expect the major league portion of the Rule 5 Draft to be quiet on the Mets front; however, it should be active in general given this will be the first year of the event with 26-man major league rosters.

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