MMO Free Agent Profile: Tyler Anderson, LHP
Tyler Anderson
Position: SP
Bats/Throws: L/L
Age: 32 (12/30/1989)
Traditional Stats: 31 G, 7-11, 4.53 ERA, 167.0 IP, 134 SO, 1.246 WHIP
Advanced Stats: 1.6 WAR, 93 ERA+, 4.37 FIP, 5.4 BB%, 19.1 K%
Rundown
Throughout his six-year MLB career, starting pitcher Tyler Anderson has been the definition of consistent. He hasn’t been consistently great, but he has not been bad either. The now-32-year-old left-handed pitcher has pitched with four teams, including a stint in Colorado pitching at Coors Field. Nonetheless, he is on the open market looking for a new team.
Anderson has made 11 starts in all but one year dating back to the beginning of the 2016-17 season. In all but two of these six years, he has pitched to an ERA and FIP in the fours. The past two years, Anderson has had FIPs of 4.36 and 4.37, putting together his second- and third-best seasons of his career. In each of these seasons, he averaged roughly 5 1/3 innings a start. Sensing a theme? Consistent, not great nor bad, numbers.
The southpaw’s pitching style is a contact pitcher that induces soft contact for outs. Since breaking into the league, Anderson has not ranked below the 50th percentile in hard-hit percentage or average exit velicity, per Baseball Savant. This is exactly what you want to see given a pitcher of this style. Also, it’s worth pointing out, given all this, it is a mystery how he was able to be a viable option in Colorado for three of his four years there.
Given the above, it is pretty apparent that Anderson does not strike a lot of batters out. Last season his strikeout percentage was in the league’s 19th percentile. The year before that, the ninth percentile. Given his style — low strikeout rate and pitch-to-contact — it is imperative he throws strikes. Well, last year he had the lowest walk rate of his career (5.4%). This has been the theme of his six MLB seasons, as his BB% only dipped below the league’s 50th percentile once.
As for pitch selection, Anderson relies on four pitches: a four-seam fastball, cutter, changeup, and sinker. His fastball (thrown 36.4% of the time last year) sits around 91 MPH and has generated a .261 xBA the past two years. His cutter (27%) and changeup (24.6%) are his two main secondary pitches. He only threw his sinker 11.3% of the time last year. Over his career, none of the pitches have really emerged to the forefront as a dominant pitch. He utilized each pretty well.
Anderson will experience the most success with a solid defense behind him. His xBA and xERA statistics are below average in terms of league percentiles the past couple seasons. This because he gives up a lot of contact. Simply put, his defense behind him will be busy.
Additionally, Anderson is also pretty prone to the home run ball. Of 43 qualified starters last year, Anderson ranked 37th in home runs per nine innings. He produced similar lackluster rates in 2017 and 2018, while in 2020 he gave up eight in only 20 2/3 innings pitched. This is certainly a weakness in Anderson’s game.
Signing Anderson will get you what is advertised. A soft-tossing, south-paw who is going to make most of his starts. This while only lasting five-or-six innings. He will most likely post an ERA in the mid-four range and struggle a tad with the home run ball. Anderson is a number five starter on a playoff team, and a number four on others. As a general manager, you are going to know what you are paying for.
Contract
Anderson is coming off a one-year, $2.5 million “prove-it” deal he signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates before getting dealt to Seattle. Given his borderline career-year, and how cheap his “prove-it” deal was, assume a solid pay raise for the Las Vegas native. The Fangraphs crowd-sourced projection for Anderson is a two-year deal worth $7 million per year. As a 32-year old, another one-year or a two-year contract for Anderson makes sense. As for the annual salary, a deal in the $6,000,000 to $7,000,000 annually makes sense.
Recommendation
As written in prior profiles, despite the signing of future Hall of Fame starter Max Scherzer, the New York Mets still need starting pitching. As it stands, the Mets’ rotation is as follows:
Would Anderson be the right guy to give the Mets a number five starter? As the above shows, you know what you are getting with Anderson. Is it worth the $6 million-plus investment it will take? In terms of remaining left-handed starters, Carlos Rodón, Clayton Kershaw, Danny Duffy, Kwang Hyun Kim, and Yusei Kikuchi remain. Some of those individuals would surely give the Mets much more of a boost.
However, when the lock-out ends, players will start flying off the shelves. Anderson should not be the Mets first choice. However, if needs be, he could step in a give you an okay number five starter thanks in large part to the pitcher-friendly Citi Field.
The post MMO Free Agent Profile: Tyler Anderson, LHP first appeared on Metsmerized Online.