MLB Betting Guide for April 7th
Wednesday in the MLB typically means lots of day games, as teams that began their three-game sets on Monday wrap things up, and that’s what we get today. Games start at 12:05 pm ET and go all day. But, with some teams on a short turnaround from their Tuesday night games, there are a couple of betting spots that present value.
Here are the plays from FanDuel Sportsbook!
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays, Moneyline, Total, and Odds
Moneyline: Red Sox -122, Rays +104
Spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+158), Rays +1.5 (-192)
Total: o9.5 -110
Odds to Win the World Series: Red Sox +5500|Rays +2500
Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays News, Analysis, and Picks
A pair of teams on a particularly quick turnaround is the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays. The teams played a marathon 12 inning, four and a half-hour game on Tuesday night and now have to get ready for a 1:10 pm start.
Nathan Eovaldi and Ryan Yarbrough are on the bump, and both teams will need both pitchers to work late into the game after exhausting bullpens last night. Both bullpens combined for 12.2 innings of work last night, which means that for better or worse, Eovaldi and Yarbrough will be expected to eat up some innings.
Thankfully for the Rays, Yarbrough is the man to keep the Red Sox bats off-balance. Yarbrough is a master of soft contact. In 2020, he led the MLB in average exit velocity at 82.4 miles per hour. His season got off to a great start, limiting the Miami Marlins to four hits and no runs through 5.2 innings last week. Yarbrough’s job will be made easier by an ineffectual Sox lineup. Through 54 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers, the Red Sox have eight hits and an on-base percentage of .190.
The way this season is going, the longer the Rays can keep the ball out of their bullpens’ hands, the better off they will be. After having one of the best bullpens in the league last season, the Rays currently rank last in the majors with an 11.48 earned run average. The longer that Yarbrough can go, the better off the Rays will be.
Rays batters will also have their work cut out for them, though. Eovaldi allowed only five baserunners in 5.1 innings of work against the Baltimore Orioles last time out. He’s been hard to hit at Fenway over the last two seasons, allowing only five runs in 23.1 innings pitched for a 1.94 earned run average.
We’re expecting a pitcher’s duel tomorrow afternoon. Both starters have above-average metrics working in their favor, and the batters’ ineffectiveness could be exacerbated by limited rest between games. The Rays offense has more upside against the right-handed throwing Eovaldi than the Sox have against the left-handed throwing Yarbrough. Rays at plus-money and the under are the plays.
The Bets: Rays +104, Under 9
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets, Moneyline, Total, and Odds
Moneyline: Phillies -162, Mets +136
Spread: Phillies -1.5 (+125), Mets +1.5 (-150)
Total: o8.5 -104
Odds to Win the World Series: Phillies +3000|Mets +1000
Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook. Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook today and get your first bet risk-free for up to $1,000!
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets News, Analysis, and Picks
New York Mets starting pitcher David Peterson has the unenviable task of duplicating the heights he reached in his rookie season when his advanced metrics point towards regression.
Peterson finished the 2020 season with a 3.44 earned run average (ERA), 4.52 fielder independent pitching (FIP), and 1.21 walks and hits per inning pitched (WHIP). His expected earned run average (xERA) and expected fielder independent pitching (xFIP), 4.39 and 5.11, respectively, were both above actual output, suggesting that we should expect a higher ERA in 2021.
In his lone start against the Philadelphia Phillies last season, Peterson was walloped. He allowed five runs on 2.0 innings and a 3.50 WHIP. The Phillies got to see Peterson’s stuff last season and know what to expect Wednesday afternoon.
Philadelphia has been getting to left-handed pitchers early this season. Through 67 at-bats, the Phillies have the eighth-ranked on-base plus slugging percentage of .744. Their biggest strength has been their ability to get baserunners against lefties, as they have the fourth-ranked on-base percentage. With big right-handed bats of Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto, and Alec Bohm in the lineup, getting down the lineup will be a challenge for Peterson.
Aaron Nola takes to the mound for the Phillies after an Opening Day no-decision against the Atlanta Braves. Nola was cruising until he gave up a two-run shot to Pablo Sandoval in the top of the seventh inning. Nola was extremely effective at limiting home runs early in his career, but his home runs per nine innings is starting to creep up. Since 2019 his HR/9 is 1.2 compared to 0.9 through the first four seasons of his career. The Mets have some big bats that Nola won’t be able to avoid.
One of those bats is Pete Alonso’s, who has three home runs in 20 at-bats against Nola.
We’re expecting the Phillies to get to Peterson and the Mets to tack on a few runs against Nola. On that basis, we’re taking the favorable price on the over 8.5 and backing the Phillies on the moneyline.
The Bets: Phillies -162, Over 8.5 (-104)