2021 Preseason Predictions
Bobrob’s 2021 Preseason Prediction #1 – Jose Miguel Cabrera Torres
So the 2020 “season” was…uh, what’s the word for it? It happened. The Tigers only played 58 games against only teams located in the Central Division, of which only 4 of them were in the American League. Opening Day was on July 24th. 53 percent of the league went to the playoffs. Some games were only 7 innings long. In the case of extra innings, a runner was placed on 2nd base because that was the only way any Tiger hitter could get on. Are we still playing baseball?
Ok, so extraordinary circumstances permitted these strange rules and we are lucky we were able to have any baseball at all. But when it comes to analyzing these stats and predicting the future, we may as well just throw them out the window. What exactly can be useful about these 2020 season stats?
Miguel Cabrera’s last great season came five years ago when he batted .316/.393/.563. Since then, he has batted .267/.342/.406 with a very average 100 OPS+. Batting average has gone down, yet he still has a good to great walk rate. But where has all the power gone? In 2020, Cabrera had an isolated power of .167, the first time it was over .150 since 2016. This is an encouraging sign. Can it translate over a full season? He is another year older and new manager A.J. HInch has entertained the thought of actually playing him at 1B (putting him on defense! Can you imagine?). No worries though, as I’m sure he’s in the greatest shape of his career.
Miggy has also had durability issues. He hasn’t logged 500 AB since 2016 (469 in 2017; 134 in 2018; and 493 in 2019). However, he did log the most AB of any Tigers hitter in 2020. If we started the season 3 months late this year, he might be able to do it again.
Bottom line, Cabrera isn’t what he once was and we will be lucky if he has another average season this year.
Milestone watch: Miguel Cabrera has a reasonable chance to get to 3000 career hits and 500 career home runs this year.
Experts’ Predictions/Projections:
Steamer – 552 AB | .265/.342/.438 | 23 HR | 80 RBI | 2 SB | 61 BB | 137 K
ZiPS – 434 AB | .256/.320/.396 | 16 HR | 64 RBI | 1 SB | 41 BB | 101 K
THE BAT – 543 AB | .259/.329/.403 | 17 HR | 69 RBI | 1 SB | 55 BB | 123 K
RotoChamp – 518 AB | .264/.336/.419 | 19 HR | 73 RBI | 1 SB | 55 BB | 121 K
CBS Sports – 551 AB | .281/.362/.463 | 27 HR | 89 RBI | 2 SB | 68 BB | 125 K
ESPN – 469 AB | .260/.331/.392 | 15 HR | 61 RBI | 1 SB | 49 BB | 113 K
My Prediction:
2020 Prediction – 478 AB | .276/.350/.421 | 14 HR | 61 RBI |0 SB | 54 BB | 108 K
2020 Actual – 204 AB | .250/.329/.417 | 10 HR | 35 RBI | 1 SB | 24 BB | 51 K
2021 Prediction – 467 AB | .268/.338/.394 | 14 HR | 67 RBI | 0 SB | 49 BB | 112 K