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Opinion: Dellin Betances Can Succeed Without High-90s Velocity

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Opinion: Dellin Betances Can Succeed Without High-90s Velocity

After spending eight seasons with the New York Yankees, reliever Dellin Betances decided to explore other options and ultimately came to an agreement with the New York Mets, although his inaugural campaign proved to be extremely disappointing and the veteran hurler certainly didn’t play up to his high expectations.

Coming off an injury-riddled 2019 campaign, where he missed nearly the entire season due to a shoulder injury and a partial Achilles tear, Betances signed a one-year, $10.5 million deal with the Mets and was expected to help improve the backend of their bullpen. But instead, the 32-year-old struggled to stay on the field, as he required a trip to the injured list with a lat injury, and also failed to perform effectively during his limited time on the mound.

Over his 11 2/3 innings in 2020, the 6′ 8″ reliever generated a miserable 7.71 ERA, 5.65 xERA, 4.91 FIP, 6.39 xFIP, 2.06 WHIP, 18.6% strikeout rate, 20.3% walk rate, 32.4% LD rate, 41.2% GB rate, 26.5% FB rate and a 0.0 fWAR.

Following one of the worst showings of his professional career, Betances wisely exercised his $6.8 million player option for the 2021 campaign and made it a priority to work on his fastball over the offseason, which sustained a major drop in velocity last season. While the right-hander’s heater has historically averaged in the upper-90s, it didn’t come anywhere close to that range in 2020, as it averaged just 93.6 mph and also bottomed out at 91 mph.

Opinion: Dellin Betances Can Succeed Without High-90s Velocity

Credit: Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports

To make matters worse, the four-time All-Star couldn’t throw his fastball the same way he’s been used to throughout his career, as it featured far too much side-to-side cutting action and not enough rising movement before arriving at home plate. As a result of these struggles, his four-seamer increased its vertical movements from 12.5 inches of drop in 2018 to a troubling 19.6 inches of drop in 2020.

With Betances’ heater located much lower in the strike zone, it failed to perform as an elite swing and miss offering, resulting in a 3.7% strikeout rate, 13.2% whiff rate, 10.3% in zone whiff rate, 13.4% chase rate and a 29.6% walk rate.

In comparison, the former eighth-round selection created a 25.2% strikeout rate, 32.3% whiff rate, 31.5% in zone whiff rate, 30.0% chase rate and a 13.4% walk rate with his fastball during the 2018 campaign.

Showcasing the location of his four-seamer, here’s where Betances located it in 2018:

And here’s where it was located in 2020:

Considering Betances has crossed over the age-30 threshold and has sustained numerous arm injuries over the last few seasons, it might be difficult for him to regain the velocity on his fastball moving forward, which is something most relievers who’ve relied on high velocity have experienced in their careers. While it seems the towering hurler will need to adjust his craft in 2021, it’s certainly possible he could enjoy plenty of success even if his four-seamer doesn’t average 97 mph.

Though it’d be a welcomed surprise to see the New York native touching 97-98 mph next season, odds are that type of velocity won’t be making a comeback, meaning he’ll need to focus on improving the location and spin of his primary offering. Since he’s been working on adding additional backspin to his heater over the winter, this adjustment could help him locate it much higher in the strike zone and also increase its spin rate, which averaged just 2,194 RPMs last season.

Taking into account that Betances’ four-seamer only produced a 70% active spin percentage in 2020, there should be an opportunity for him to significantly increase that figure during his second season with the Mets. While his fastball may never replicate its prior vertical movements, which averaged the 16th-fewest inches of drop (12.5 inches) among all qualified pitchers in 2018, averaging 14-15 inches of drop would definitely be a major improvement from last season.

Along with making changes to his fastball, the former Grand Street Campus HS product will also need to adjust the usage of his mid-80s slider, which was utilized just 10.0% in 2020. Considering it averaged 45.1 inches of drop, which would’ve tied for 13th-most if he had qualified, its usage needs to be much closer to 20 percent, especially since it generated the highest strikeout rate (53.8%) among all of his pitches.

Adding to its effectiveness, Betances’ secondary breaking ball didn’t surrender a single walk and also allowed just a .231 AVG, .156 xAVG, .231 SLG, .198 xSLG, .201 wOBA, .153 xwOBA against it last season.

As for his low-80s curveball, it sustained a minor drop in velocity last season, as decreased from 84.3 mph in 2018 to 82.6 mph in 2020. Having said that, its average velocity sat between 83-84 mph towards the end of the season and will likely remain in that range if the veteran hurler stays healthy.

If that’s the case, there’s a very good chance Betances will be able to replicate its stellar results from the 2018 campaign, where he threw it 35.2% of the time and produced a 43.5% strikeout rate, 47.0% whiff rate, 29.1% in zone whiff rate, 26.9% chase rate, 73.6% chase whiff rate and a 6.5% walk rate.

In comparison, the former New York Yankee utilized his primary breaking ball 41.1% last season, recording a 15.8% strikeout rate, 30.3% whiff rate, 11.8% in zone whiff rate, 30.2% chase rate, 50.0% chase whiff rate and a 21.1% walk rate.

With teammate Seth Lugo expected to be sidelined for the first two months of the regular season due to his elbow surgery, the Mets will desperately need Betances to bounce back and rediscover some of the success he enjoyed with the Yankees. Though they don’t need him to be the same reliever who earned the second-highest fWAR rating (11.2) from 2014-2018, although that’d be nice if he were, making considerable gains off his 2020 performance would be a suitable step in the right direction.

Set to turn 33-years-old next month, this season will be one of the most important summers of Betances’ entire career, especially since he could become a free agent next winter. If the veteran righty performs well, then he’ll likely decline his vesting player option and enter the open market in search of a multi-year contract. But if he struggles once again and can’t stay healthy, earning that type of deal next offseason might be nearly impossible.

Considering his future will be on the line in 2021, it’ll be crucial for the aging hurler to succeed without his high-90s fastball and successfully transition away from being a pitcher who primarily relies on explosive velocity, which is usually easier said than done.

Opinion: Dellin Betances Can Succeed Without High-90s Velocity

The post Opinion: Dellin Betances Can Succeed Without High-90s Velocity first appeared on Metsmerized Online.

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