Opinion: Albert Almora Jr. Could Serve As Inexpensive Outfield Option

With the offseason finally starting to heat up, the New York Mets have addressed multiple key areas of their roster over the last couple of weeks, but they’ll still need to acquire a reliable center fielder before next season begins.

As it currently stands, outfielder Brandon Nimmo – who posted a -4 OAA in center field last season – is slated to serve as the everyday center fielder in 2021. But since he’s proven to be far more effective in left field, where he owns a career 5 OAA, it’d make a lot more sense to transition him into a corner outfielder moving forward.

Considering that outfielder George Springer – who’s been linked to the Mets numerous times throughout this winter – is still available on the market, he’s a clear and obvious target for this team. That being said, it’d be a little challenging for the front office to bring him to Queens without exceeding the $210 million luxury tax, which might not be something owner Steve Cohen is willing to do during his first year with the organization.

Following the acquisition of Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco, New York’s payroll increased to approximately $180.9 million, leaving them just over $29 million in tax space. Since Springer is reportedly demanding at least $25 million per season over a long-term deal, making this move could prevent general manager Jared Porter from filling out the rest of his roster.

While Porter and his staff could line up some salary-dumping trades, perhaps including someone like Steven Matz (earning $5.2 million in 2021), there are several alternative solutions to spending all of their remaining resources on just one player. If management were to spread $20 million or so across multiple different players, then they could still target an impact center fielder while also addressing the remaining holes within their pitching staff at the same time.

Searching for an inexpensive, but also reliable outfielder, the Mets could target someone like Jackie Bradley Jr., although there are some major questions about his offensive capabilities and whether he can produce consistently over a full season. Instead of paying a premium for someone who’s known for his defense, the front office could bring in someone like Albert Almora Jr., who they’ve already looked into this offseason, according to Andy Martino of SNY.

Free agent Albert Almora is among the center field options that Mets have looked at.

— Andy Martino (@martinonyc) January 13, 2021

After being non-tendered by the Chicago Cubs back in December, Almora Jr. became a free agent shortly after and is now searching for his next contract. But considering he was expected to earn $1.575 million through arbitration, according to MLB Trade Rumors, there’s a very good chance he’ll probably receive that exact amount, or one similar to it, in free agency.

At that price, the Mets would be foolish not to at least consider acquiring the 26-year-old, especially since he won’t become a free agent once again until after the 2022 campaign and still has one minor-league option remaining. While the former first-round pick wouldn’t create nearly as much buzz as signing Springer would, and rightly so, he could still help improve this team’s run prevention next season.

Similar to Bradley Jr., Almora Jr. is also known for his defense and has proven to capable of producing elite defensive metrics if he’s provided regular playing time. While first-year manager David Ross didn’t put him in a position to succeed last season, as he earned less than 100 innings in center field, the 6-foot-2 outfielder did generate the top statistical performance of his career in 2018.

Earning the most playing time of his entire career, the 2016 World Series champion earned a career-high 918 1/3 innings, creating 10 DRS, 10 OAA, 1.9 UZR, 2.9 UZR/150, 0.3 RngR, and a 3.4 defensive fWAR rating.

In comparison to the rest of the league, the defensive-first center fielder finished with the third-most DRS, the sixth-highest OAA, the seventh-highest UZR/150, along with the eighth-highest UZR and defensive fWAR rating among all qualified center fielders, according to FanGraphs.com.

Even though those results were generated almost three seasons ago, Almora Jr. hasn’t lost a step since then and is still considered one of the quickest defenders in the majors. While his brief time in the outfield in 2020 prevents us from actually determining how effective he was, the breakdown of his 2019 results displays exactly how the former Cub utilized his speed to his advantage.

Despite recording a respectable reaction and burst of 0.8 feet along with a jump of 1.7 feet in 2018, the Florida native found a way to take his defense up to another level, as he produced a reaction of 1.0 feet (tied for eighth-best among all qualified outfielders), a burst of 0.9 feet (tied for 12th-best), and a jump of 1.6 feet above average (eighth-best).

Taking into account these metrics, it seems Almora Jr. will have a strong chance to replicate his stellar 2018 defensive results if he’s given the right amount of playing time next season. But for him to be in the lineup regularly, he’ll need to generate at least average production at the plate, which is something he hasn’t accomplished since 2017.

Over the last three seasons, the Mater Academy Charter HS standout has created 36 doubles, 17 home runs, 74 RBIs, .112 ISO, .300 BABIP, .288 wOBA, 4.9% walk rate, 17.6% strikeout rate, 19.3% LD rate, 51.9% GB rate, 28.8% FB rate, a 77 wRC+ score, and a slashing line of .261/.299/.373/.672 through 876 plate appearances.

In comparison, the right-handed hitter recorded 18 doubles, eight home runs, 46 RBIs, .147 ISO, .338 BABIP, .334 wOBA, 5.9% walk rate, 16.4% strikeout rate, 20.8% LD rate, 49.4% GB rate, 29.8% FB rate, a 103 wRC+ score, and a slashing line of .298/.338/.445/.782 over his 323 plate appearances in 2017.

If Almora Jr. were to struggle in the batter’s box in 2021, he’d likely become the Mets’ fourth outfielder moving forward and would probably be utilized as a late-game defensive replacement, allowing him to earn a decent amount of playing time in the outfield. Taking this a step further, it might not be the worst idea to limit his exposure, especially since he’s performed much more effectively against left-handed pitchers throughout his career.

Through 438 career plate appearances, the former top prospect has generated 20 doubles, nine home runs, 41 RBIs, .122 ISO, .310 BABIP, .317 wOBA, 6.6% walk rate, 13.9% strikeout rate, 22.2% LD rate, 50.6% GB rate, 27.2% FB rate, a 95 wRC+ score, and a slashing line of .280/.332/.402/.734.

While taking this route wouldn’t give the Mets a clear starting center fielder next season, that doesn’t mean a pair of outfielders couldn’t perform effectively in a platoon role at that position. It might not be the most favorable option, especially since Springer is still available, but it could definitely help them add someone like reliever Brad Hand along with a decent starter to fill out the rest of the starting rotation.

With just five weeks remaining until pitchers and catchers report for spring training, the clock is ticking for the front office to address the final major hole on this team, meaning they still have plenty of work ahead of them before the offseason concludes.