MMO Crossfire: To Bauer Or Not To Bauer?

Sal Manzo: To Bauer!

Well Mets fans, free agency is soon upon us and for the first winter in what feels like a VERY long time, the Amazin’s will most likely be active buyers during this year’s “hot stove.”

One area in particular the Mets will undoubtedly look to upgrade in a big way for 2021 is their starting rotation, which brings us to the curious case of right-hander Trevor Bauer.

There has been little debate that Bauer will be the most coveted starter on the market when free agency begins after coming off what will likely be a Cy Young award-winning 2020 season, but his quirky personality has also made him one of the more polarizing players in recent years.

Bottom line here: should the Mets invest in the soon to be 30-year-old California native?

My answer is simple – yes, they should.

Bauer has rubbed fanbases the wrong way in the past, but his outward personality could play very well in New York.

He is forward thinking, social media savvy , has been very outspoken on what the MLB should be doing to help grow the game, and more than anything he seems passionate about his craft.

You can make the argument that until about 2018 Bauer was an underachiever, but a career 3.90 ERA and averaging a shade over 200 innings pitched in his nine-year career is something the Mets rotation could use desperately.

Bauer also utilizes spin rate as an important tool for his success, which is something that has seemed to take his game to an elite level.

Why does that matter? Well, for example, Bauer claims that he was able to add more spin to his fastball, sinker, and cutter without losing any velocity.

For context, his four-seam fastball went from 2412 RPM to 2797 RPM from 2019 to 2020, his sinker from 2353 RPM to 2803 RPM, and his cutter from 2640 RPM to 2803.

These are major jumps, and to create even more spin without sacrificing velocity AND location is impressive.

Another factor to me would be the influence Jacob deGrom could have on Bauer.

Bauer seems to crave information, and to be able to pick the brain and compete with one of the best pitchers of this generation could up his game even more.

Speaking of deGrom, what other viable starting pitching do the Mets have after their ace?

The quick answer is none.

Mets starters combined for a 5.37 ERA in 2020 which included another dominant season from deGrom, and 2021 will look much of the same if they aren’t willing to bolster their ace in a big way.

Another enticing aspect about Bauer is that he may not necessarily want a traditional long-term free agent contract.

His way of thinking may have shifted because of COVID, but the righty has stated in the past that he intended to maximize his value with one-year contracts once he became a free agent.

If that is still the case, it could be the perfect scenario for New York and maximizing their smaller and smaller window of “win now.”

The AAV for someone of Bauer’s talent would be high, but for only one or two years the Mets would be paying for his top performance now, and not necessarily overpay for his decline at the end of a longer-term deal.

Overall, there is too much need on the Mets’ end to not do whatever they can to bring this man to Queens and have him competing in the orange and blue!

Tim Ryder: Not to Bauer!

Since 2017, Trevor Bauer has pitched to a respectable 3.46 ERA, good for 22nd in baseball over that span. That will do in a non-ace role, especially if he continues on his current trajectory.

Though the pristine 2.21 ERA he put up in his breakout 2018 campaign being sandwiched by a 4.19 ERA season in 2017 and a 4.48 mark in 2019 doesn’t exactly scream, “GIVE THIS GUY A QUARTER BILLION DOLLARS!” regardless of his 2020 output.

According to SNY, Bauer could be looking at a $240+ million payday, akin to what Washington handed Stephen Strasburg last winter. That seems outrageous for the overall body of work Bauer has brought to the table.

And yes, Bauer has clearly discovered something that’s elevated his game to another level.

But at the end of the day, he’s entering free agency after a very good, 1.73 ERA stretch over 11 starts. That’s not enough to justify such a wild investment. 

Zack Wheeler, who signed with the Phillies for $118 million over five years last winter, was practically driven out of town by Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, who mockingly wished Wheeler well with his “parlayed two good half-seasons into $118 million” quote last February.

Now folks are ready to mint Bauer for only one good half-season? It’s kind of baffling, to be honest.

Is he a very good pitcher? Sure, we’ll concede that. Would he be a solid addition to just about any MLB staff? Of course.

But is he a proven star, capable of consistent success? No, he’s not. And that’s not opinion. His career line says as much.

Oh, and he’s got this nasty habit of making trouble on social media. Google it. Form your own opinion on that front.