MMO Free Agent Profile: Kirby Yates, RHP

Kirby Yates, Relief Pitcher

Bats/Throws: Left/Right

Age: 33 (Mar. 25, 1987)

Traditional Stats: 6 G, 4.1 IP, 12.46 ERA, 2.54 WHIP, 8 K, 4 BB, 1 HR; 16.6 K/9, 8.3 BB/9, 2.1 HR/9, 52.1% LOB

Advanced Stats: 38.5% GB, 25.0% HR/FB, 5.27 FIP/4.05 xFIP, 4.18 SIERA, 37 ERA+, -0.3 fWAR/0.0 bWAR

Rundown

Kirby Yates’ season with the San Diego Padres came to an abrupt end in August, when an original MRI for elbow inflammation revealed bone chips that ultimately resulted in season-ending surgery. The procedure was Yates’ first since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2006 – his first year out of high school.

The limited sample of appearances can explain the missing Statcast numbers, and the injury itself can certainly excuse some of the uglier results from when he did pitch.

It’s worth remembering, however, that Yates began the pandemic-shortened season as the go-to closer in a Padre bullpen that promised to be one of the best in baseball. The righty checked in on the depth chart ahead of such names as Craig Stammen, Drew Pomeranz, and Emilio Pagan, and for good reason considering his accomplishments in 2019.

With a 3.4 fWAR that ranked second among qualifying relievers (behind only Liam Hendriks), Yates dominated to the tune of a 1.19 ERA, striking out 15 batters per nine innings while only walking 1.9 at the same clip.

His league-leading 41 saves earned him a selection to the All-MLB first team while his 1.30 FIP/2.25 xFIP earned him two third-place votes on the NL Cy Young ballot.

Like Hendriks before him, Yates’ rise to the top of the food chain came with its share of trial and error. Kirby signed with the Tampa Bay Rays as an undrafted free agent in 2009, just as his older brother (and former Met reliever) Tyler wrapped up his final tour of the big-leagues with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

He wouldn’t see the majors until his age-27 season in 2014, and while his production as a rookie (3.75 ERA, 10.5 K/9 to 3.8 BB/9 in 37 games) earned him a role the following year, his 10 homers allowed in 20.1 innings kept him on the shuttle, and eventually cost him a spot on the Rays’ roster.

The Yankees purchased Yates’ contract from Cleveland (who had purchased his contract from Tampa Bay) prior to the 2016 season. While he set a then-personal-best in innings pitched (41.1), his 5.23 ERA made him expendable.

The Los Angeles Angels claimed him off waivers ahead of 2017, and after just one outing in April, they passed him off to the Padres, who promptly solved him – albeit over a course of three years.

Yates’ last full season took many in the baseball world by surprise, considering his fastball velocity (57th percentile) and spin rates (61st percentile) didn’t stand out among the likes of Hendriks, Nick Anderson, Ken Giles, Taylor Rogers, or any of the more overpowering frontline relievers across the board.

In fact, his average fastball had lost nearly a full mile per hour (94.5 to 93.7 mph) from his 2018 campaign.

The difference-maker in 2019 for Yates seemed to be an even further-improved splitfinger fastball, which now dropped 3.9 inches above league-average and led the league in runs above average at 13.0 (courtesy of PITCHf/x).

Yates took advantage of the sequence by keeping hitters off-balance, as he managed the 9th-lowest zone-contact percentage and the 21st-highest swing-and-miss rate among big-league relievers.

The process began the year before, when he scrapped his changeup in favor of the splitter altogether, and promptly saw a 7.4 percent increase in soft-contact and 13.9 percent increase in groundball rate. Promotion to the ninth inning notwithstanding, the only salient difference between 2018 and 2019 from a batted-ball perspective came in terms of barrels allowed, as Yates rose from the 34th percentile all the way up to 94th. Perhaps fans should have anticipated the breakout.

Contract

Though it effectively sidelined him for the remainder of the season, Yates’ elbow surgery only has a six-to-eight-week recovery timeline, meaning he’ll certainly be cleared for regular action by the time pitchers and catchers report, if he hasn’t already begun throwing at a hundred percent effort.

For what it’s worth, Yates remained in good spirits following the procedure. He even reiterated that doctors didn’t notice any other damages to his elbow, which should allay any concerns executives may have about what’s left in the tank for the 33-year old.

Assuming his bill of health is otherwise clean, Yates figures to lead the A-tier beneath Hendriks, competing amongst Blake Treinen, Trevor Rosenthal, and Alex Colome for the next-best multi-year deal. Being the oldest of this sample, Kirby probably doesn’t field anything north of two years and $9 million annually.

A three-year deal akin to the $24-million agreement the Nationals made with Will Harris could fit the bill from an AAV perspective, but any interested team would probably be wiser to simply fit it into a club option after the second year.

Yates is a client of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, who netted Alex Cobb his record-setting four-year, $57 million deal with the Baltimore Orioles three offseasons ago and Mike Leake a five-year, $80 million pact with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2016.

BHSC also represents Jake Diekman, Hunter Pence, Salvador Perez, and Yasiel Puig.

Recommendation

The Mets’ starting rotation is missing bodies and they would certainly also benefit from either a catcher who can frame or a center fielder who can snatch hits out of the gaps.

But make no mistake, they will also need another high-leverage reliever to smooth the bridge to Seth Lugo and Edwin Diaz.

We’ve already gone into detail about why Liam Hendriks would be the most promising target, but between adding two to three starters and (Steve willing) one of J.T. Realmuto or James McCann, the bullpen could certainly be the department to which the Mets cut the smaller checks.

Logistically, Yates on a two-year deal may be one of the safer bets out there, so long as his arm is up for the challenge. The front office obviously took a bath making a similar investment in Dellin Betances, and even their deal with the healthier Jeurys Familia reflects a sunken cost. But that shouldn’t discourage the team from seeking out more convincing reinforcements.

Yates, at least at a reasonable price, would be a great fit to either help in a setup role or serve within a larger committee of closers, should skipper Luis Rojas go that route next season.

There will be other options to pick from should negotiations be too steep, but at least for the first of the two years, Yates seems more likely than not to contribute. The fastball-splitter combo has yet to fail him through his first two years exploiting it.