Whisoxman's Off-Season Plan

Introduction

This will obviously be a strange off-season, with a just completed 60-game season with no fans and unknown dynamics for 2021. The Sox should be able to slash over $45 million from their 2020 books (Herrera, Encarnacion, Gonzalez, Cishek, Rodon, Detwiler, etc.), so even when adding increased salaries due to arbitration and extra $$ from extensions, the White Sox should still have money to spend. My team salary (not including manager and staff) comes out to $145 million, which the team may afford thanks to an increase in television revenue. This is a slight increase overall from last year's Opening Day full-season salaries.

Manager

If I were the GM, I'd select Bruce Bochy as the new Sox manager. He's about 13 years younger than La Russa, doesn't have the baggage of Hinch or Cora, and won three World Series (the most recent in 2014). Bochy would command a veteran (and sane) presence in the dugout while still maintaining a reputation as a player's manager.

Pitching Coach

Like Trooper, I like the idea of James Shields as a pitching coach. If Shields is unwilling to accept this job, Richard Dotson could be a viable alternative. For what it’s worth, Danny Farquhar could make sense as the team’s bullpen coach.

Arbitration (To Be or Not- to-Be-Tendered):

Write "tender" or "non-tender" after each of the following names, and explain any particularly tough choices. Remember that arb-eligible players can be signed to contract extensions, or be traded, before or after tendering a contract.

(all estimates presume a full season and no prorated salaries, as in 2020)

• Nomar Mazara, $5.9 million -- Non-Tender

• Yolmer Sánchez, $2 million -- Non-Tender but could consider re-adding (especially if rosters exceed 26 players)

• Adam Engel, $1.4 million --Tender

• Carlos Rodón, $4.55 million -- Non-Tender

• Lucas Giolito, $5.3 million -- Tender

• Reynaldo López, $2.2 million -- Tender but try to re-negotiate to $1.5

• Evan Marshall, $1.9 million -- Tender

• Jace Fry, $1 million -- Tender

Impending Free Agents

Re-sign, cut loose, or extend a qualifying offer of $18.9 million? (Explain any tough or complicated calls.)

• Alex Colomé (2020 salary: $10,532,500) -- Cut loose but would definitely reconsider if higher-octane arms like Liam Hendricks or Trevor Rosenthal sign elsewhere. He did a nice job the last two years for the Sox, so he's definitely worth considering.

• James McCann (2020 salary: $5.4 million) -- I would extend a qualifying offer. Before you begin mocking, please see the rest of my off-season plan for an explanation.

• Jarrod Dyson (2020 salary: $2 million) -- Cut loose.

Team Contract Options

Write "pick up" or "decline," and explain any tough or complicated calls.

• Edwin Encarnación (2021 salary: $12 million) -- Easy decline.

• Gio González (2021 salary: $7 million) -- Easy decline. At least he finally won a game for the Sox.

• Leury García (2021 salary: $3.5 million) -- Pick up.

Free agents

George Springer: 6 years, $150 million. I really tried hard to work a two-team and/or three-team trade to acquire either left-handed right fielders Mike Yastrzemski or Brandon Nimmo, but I believe the price tag would be too high due to the number of years under team control for both players. I also considered Yasiel Puig, but I worry about the team chemistry angle. Nick Castellanos (if he drops out), Michael Brantley and Marcell Ozuna are intriguing options, but their defense would mean Luis Robert would essentially have to cover both foul poles. Lastly, Joc Pederson hit below .200 this year, and while he's had more dinger success than Mazara, Springer would be a far better option here in my opinion. His in-season and post-season success would make the Sox offense even better (even without much in southpaw bats), and the defense would be upgraded as well.

Liam Hendriks: 3 years, $45 million. The Sox could go with Bummer or the younger guys here, but Bummer's 2020 injury worries me a bit & we only have 2 months of MLB experience for the likes of Heuer and Foster. Thus Hendriks is my choice here, as he definitely possesses wipeout stuff. Because he's on the wrong side of 30 and due to the volatility of the position, I'm only offering a three-year deal here. I rank him slightly better than Trevor Rosenthal due to posting more overall success in the past three years. Alex Colome is a viable third option as the closer, but only if the other two sign for bigger bucks elsewhere.

Trades

Dylan Cease, Zack Burdi, Gavin Sheets and Yermin Mercedes for Lance Lynn and Joely Rodriguez – Let’s face it, Sheets and Mercedes are capable sluggers but are currently blocked in the Sox organization (Sheets by Andrew Vaughn & Jose Abreu, Mercedes by Grandal, Collins, Abreu and Vaughn). Burdi has a lot of talent, but likely needs to gain success on a rebuilding team that would be willing to live with some growing pains. I think the world of Cease, but the Rangers are going to have plenty of suitors for Lynn (an excellent starter but with one year left on his contract for less than $10 million. For just one year, the Sox aren’t going to part with two young starters. With that said, the Sox could give them a potential starter, closer, first baseman and DH which the Rangers may find too difficult to pass up – even if they have to throw in a southpaw reliever like Rodriguez in the deal.

Yasmani Grandal to the Mets for Brad Brach/Robert Gsellman, Freddy Valdez, and Ali Sanchez. On paper, this would be a lopsided deal in favor of the Mets. The Mets need an upper-end backstop, and with new ownership, will want to make some headline moves to kick off their new regime. Grandal will give them the high-profile catcher they long have needed, and they wouldn’t be asked to relinquish any high-profile players (like Nimmo/Conforto) or elite prospects. With this trade, the Sox would add a veteran middle reliver in Brach (who actually has a player option for $1.5 million; if he declines the option, the Sox could get Gsellman instead), a Micker Adolfo-clone who’s about five years younger, and a future backup catcher with a cannon arm (who are the team’s 17th and 23rd-rated prospects respectively). Why so little for Grandal? With the Sox giving McCann a qualified offer, teams will know that Grandal could be had for relatively cheap, and to be honest, his value may be slightly less than what his contract is paying him anyway. However, with McCann taken off the available list of free agents, perhaps the Sox may actually get more than what I’m proposing. After all, once Realmuto signs somewhere, there really aren’t any significant catchers available.

In doing this, the Sox would then be able to renegotiate an extension for McCann (similar to what the team did for Abreu last year) for a three-year, $45 million deal, which could likely be more than what the league may offer for his services. For 2020, opponents scored over two runs per game less when McCann was behind the plate than when Grandal was the backstop. No complaints about Grandal, but as good as he is, McCann seems a better fit for this franchise.

Summary

Here’s how my 26-man roster sits for now:

Lucas Giolito SP: 5.3 million
Lance Lynn SP: 9.333 million
Dallas Keuchel SP: 18 million
Michael Kopech SP: 575 K
Dane Dunning SP: 575 K
Liam Hendricks RP: 15 M
Aaron Bummer (RP): 2 M
Codi Heuer (RP): 575 K
Evan Marshall (RP): 1.9 M
Matt Foster (RP): 575 K
Jace Fry (RP): 1 M
Brad Brach (RP): 1.5 M/Robert Gsellman 1.4 M
Joely Rodroguez (RP): 2.5 M

C James McCann 15 M
C Zack Collins 575 K
1B Jose Abreu 17.666 M
2B Nick Madrigal 575 K
SS Tim Anderson 7.25 M
3B Yoan Moncada 6.8 M
MI Danny Mendick 575 K
CI/DH Andrew Vaughn 575 K
OF Eloy Jimenez 4.333M
OF Luis Robert 3.5 M
OF George Springer 25 M
OF Adam Engel 1.4 M
U Leury Garcia $3.5 M

Other notes:

The biggest drawback to trading Grandal away is that the Sox would miss his switch-hitting bat and ability to take the free pass. I truly believe the team is better, however, with McCann behind the plate and am willing to sell low in order to make it happen. Opponents will stack their righties against the Sox – especially in the post-season when teams can manipulate their rotations easier. To be fair, though, the 2005 roster was right-heavy as well. Anyway, despite the lack of significant left-handed bats in the lineup, it’s still quite a loaded lineup.

Reynaldo Lopez and Jimmy Cordero both have one option remaining per FanGraphs, and I have difficulty inserting them into the above pitching staff barring injuries. Thus, I have them begin the year in Charlotte. However, if the team decides to place Kopech in the Charlotte rotation (or in Schaumburg) to begin the season, Lopez would be his replacement. Give Lopez a chance to succeed in the minors as perhaps a long reliever and see if we can catch lightning in a bottle. Finally, with three southpaws in the bullpen and the addition of Lynn in the pen, I have Garrett Crochet beginning the year in the Minors to build up some innings. Hopefully, he’ll replace Lynn in the 2022 rotation. I also have Stiever beginning the year in either Birmingham or Charlotte (or for that matter, Schaumburg).

My overall team salary breaks down to $145 million, which isn’t bad but am not sure if that’s too high in the COVID-19 baseball economy. I thought about fewer years and a lower annual commitment with Springer, but there’ll be enough of a market to start a bidding war for his services to warrant the contract size. This contract would take him through his year-37 season.