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NL Cy Young Update: DeGrom’s Award to Lose

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While the Mets season is going down the drain quickly, they’ve had several great individual performances in 2020 and the least surprising one is the dominance of Jacob deGrom.

With under two weeks left in the season, he looks like the favorite to win his third straight National League Cy Young award.

Jacob deGrom

The reigning NL Cy Young now leads the NL in ERA (1.67) and K% (37.8). He’s second with his 2.3 fWAR, 1.96 FIP, 0.87 WHIP, 13.17 K/9, and tied for second with 79 strikeouts.

The Mets have 12 games left on the season and deGrom is starting on Wednesday night against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. DeGrom is then lined up to pitch on regular rest Sept. 21 against the Rays and Sept. 26 against the Nationals.

DeGrom has a 1.13 ERA over his last five starts and hasn’t

Yu Darvish

The veteran right-hander looked like the favorite before his last two outings, starting with a 1.44 ERA against Cincinnati on Sept. 9. But two straight starts of three earned runs allowed (something deGrom hasn’t done at all in 2020) has pushed his ERA up to 2.00. In a short season, two non-elite starts could be enough to lose the Cy Young.

Darvish ranks fifth in the NL with that 2.00 ERA, his 2.5 fWAR leads the NL, and his 0.88 WHIP is third behind deGrom and Trevor Bauer. He ranks sixth in K% (33.6), fifth in HR/9 (0.57), and third in FIP (2.26). He is tied for first with his seven wins, but recent voting suggests that likely won’t come into play.

Darvish started on Tuesday night and the Cubs have 11 games left on their schedule.

Trevor Bauer

Bauer is locked in right now with only one earned run allowed over his last two starts (14 innings) and has struck out 22 (compared to only two walks) in that span.

The right-hander leads the NL with his 0.81 WHIP, is second in ERA at 1.71, and his 2.1 fWAR ranks him fourth behind the previous noted hopefuls and Brewers’ starter Corbin Burnes. He also has two complete game shutouts this year, the rest of the NL has four combined.

It looks like Bauer’s next start could be on Saturday against the White Sox.

Corbin Burnes

The major league leader for qualified starters in FIP (1.96) and H/9 (4.8) is, yup you guessed it, Brewers’ right-hander Corbin Burnes. He also leads the NL with his 13.33 K/9 and ranks third with his 2.2 fWAR. His 1.98 ERA is tied for third in the league.

Burnes has made three relief appearances this year in addition to seven starts, he’s currently at 50 innings which would put him on the lower end for Cy Young hopefuls. He also started recently on Monday, meaning he likely only has two starts left.

One remarkable stat from Burnes is that he’s allowed only one home run in 50 innings this season, even crazier when you see he allowed 17 in 49 innings last year.

Others to Watch

Max Fried was a potential front-runner for awhile, but hasn’t pitched since Sept. 5. His 2.9 bWAR still leads the NL, though he has pitched only 50 innings. He hasn’t allowed a home run all season.

Zack Wheeler is another that has been seen his case slowed by injury, a freak fingernail break paused his season on Sept. 9. He is scheduled to start on Wednesday against the Mets. His 2.5 bWAR ranks third in the NL and his 1.59 BB/9 is second.

Padres’ right-hander Dinelson Lamet has allowed only one earned run over his last two starts (14 2/3 innings) and has struck out 24 in that span. He’s lowered his season ERA to 2.11 and his WHIP to 0.89.

Very quietly, Aaron Nola is ranked second in the NL with his 2.6 bWAR and seventh with his 2.40 ERA.

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