SELL! SELL! SELL! Keep 1B/DHs who will be here for the contention window and ship off the nice dads!

What a great Start to the season for the team, I have loved it! the bad news is that fangraphs still has us projected to win 81 games, with a 12.5% playoff probability. A young team low on relievers and thus poorly built for the playofs that wants to ‘rebuild’, ‘stepback’ or ‘retool’ (be bad now to win later) shouldn’t sell their future to improve on a 12.5% playoff probability.

In the case of Dan Vogelbach this means getting the everyday game time to determine if and how he can contribute to a competitive MLB team team. As Grant Bronsdon and Tim Cantu pointed out in, ‘The Daniel Vogelbach Debate’ in his last year at AAA Dan dropped his K percentage so low, raised his ISO and BB so high there is little left for him to learn from AAA.

This offseason I was an advocate for moving Ryon Healy to the minors. As various LL contributors have pointed out his high out of zone swing percentages, and low launch angles have meant he has not been a highly valuable player. I assumed that sending Ryon, a player with one remaining Milb option to AAA would allow him to work on lowering his hands, raising his launch angle and taking more pitches in an environment competitive enough for him to build confidence but not so competitive that he was trying to change his swing mechanics and plate approach while facing Blake Treinen! Right now It seems that Ryon has Magically fixed himself!!! His o zone swing percentage is down around 7% and his launch angle is up around 9 degrees! This is a small sample size, but if this trend continues Ryon, like Vogey should stick with the Team as its unclear what the point of sending him to the minors would be.

If Shed Long or Joey Curletta mashes in AAA they will at some point deserve a shot in MLB, especially on a rebuilding team. Although I am more open to letting players season in AAA having seen Vogelbach’s growth in performance in MLB improve year by year coincide with his perceived overseasoning in the minors as discussed in, ‘The Daniel Vogelbach Debate’.

I am reticent to judge the character and parenting of people I don’t have personal relationships with, given that I feel OK about saying the Mariners Employ at least two nice dads; Edwin Encarnacion and Jay Bruce. There is bad news about our nice dads. Even if these guys greatly outperform their projections it figures to have little influence on the Mariners playoff odds; if Encarnacion gains 4 War instead of the Steamer projected 1.8 and Bruce 2 instead of his projected .8 that only gets the Mariners to about 85 wins (probably not even a one game playoff to go the the playoff series). In any case one or two of the nice dads may have to go at some point in exchange for talent that can help the Ms when they are serious playoff contenders and so the young Ms can play. What I don’t want is a key prospect who is building confidence, doing everything right, with a 1400 OPS to sit on the bench like Vogelbach did the other night. This problem will be further exacerbated if and when Kyle Seager returns from injury.

This unfortunate circumstance is made worse as the dad’s market value is probably not high. Neither of these nice dads can defend a lot. Steamer projects Jay Bruce for a 106 wrc+ and Edwin for a 125 wrc+ this year. Unfortunately the only teams in clear need of these types of dads (CLEVELAND) are notoriously cheap, No wonder they are in need. As a poor defensive 4th outfielder/1B at .8 projected war and only 106 WRC+ Bruce’s market seems small as teams can procure players of Similar utility easily. Many more teams could use a player with Edwin’s projected 125 WRC+ as he may force more hittable pitches to be thrown to other top players in a new teams line up. The good news about this is that 1B/OF bruce blocks Vogey and Ryon less then 1B/DH Edwin does. Edwin, with the most trade value and utility to loose as the season rolls on should go first, If Seager comes back, Edwin goes and Ryon needs to go to AAA Bruce can still be an everyday 1B.

Obviously in the case that some teams loses a key hitter or 4th outfielder to injury or suspension the market value of Bruce or Encornation will increase. The fact such a deall hasn’t taken place yet is that Trader Jarry thinks the Trade terms available for the dads Aren't good enough. I trust Trader Jerry’s Analysis of this, he is of course first and foremost a trader!

I love nice dads but in this hardscrabble new world of playoff probabilities, analytical front offices, smaller prospect returns in trades and more competition to be bad then good It seems extra important to compete hard for young cost controlled talent. The Mariners have two things going for them in the future; Contract space and fine young players. With every potential free agent signing a long term deal contract space gets less valuable and the young players get more important. In light of this I want the Ms to aggressively eat salary in exchange for more valuable prospects whenever moves do get made, this may appeal greatly to cheap skate teams like the Rays or Cleveland. In short The Ms need to Sell the Vets who can’t help them in the playoffs the moment they block well timed prospect promotions. I trust Jerry’s Judgement on this but they need to get whatever they can for Edwin, Anthony and the gang Not try and get 85 wins instead of 80 or 75.