My Virtual Ballot
Series so far:, , , , , , , , Billy Wagner
I thoroughly enjoyed writing this series, and want to thank everyone who read through the whole thing, or though parts of it.
If I possessed a ballot, I would vote for the 10 best players on the list (assuming I felt the ballot contained 10 worth candidates). This year there are certainly more than 10 players I believe are worthy. So, as a final article, I would like to rank the ballot. At the end I will discuss how writing the series altered my opinion on some candidacies.
The Easy Eliminations
As I stated at the beginning, there are some candidates who I simply do not believe own a case for the Hall of Fame. At all. This is not a criticism of their careers, but a statement on the standards I personally maintain for Hall of Fame induction. The players I scratch off out of hand are:
Rick Ankiel, Juan Pierre, Darren Oliver, Jon Garland, Michael Young, Jason Bay, Travis Hafner, Ted Lilly, Vernon Wells, Freddy Garcia, Derek Lowe, Kevin Youkilis, Placido Polanco, Miguel Tejada, and Roy Oswalt. I originally put Lance Berkman on this list, but chose to rescind it upon further investigation.
Rankings
I will go in reverse order.
20. Billy Wagner
Wagner was a great reliever, but not a particularly exceptional closer. Compared to the standards set by the Hall of Fame I simply cannot justify voting for him. More to the point: I view relievers as specialists, a player must transcend the position to gain entrance to the Hall of Fame. Here are two closers, pick Billy Wagner:
Player A: 2.86 ERA (ERA+ 148), 437 Saves, 976 IP, 1,142 SO
Player B: 2.31 ERA (187 ERA+), 422 Saves, 903 IP, 1,196 SO
Smart readers will know Player B is Billy Wagner. Player A is Francisco Rodriguez.
19. Omar Vizquel
Some will be surprised I ranked Omar ahead of Billy, but I think Omar possesses a better case than many realize. Omar was truly a durable marvel, and played an excellent shortstop for a long period of time. I don't think comparisons to Ozzie Smith are favorable, but Vizquel was not quite as bad as many claim. Ozzie Smith posted a career 87 OPS+, Omar 82. However, Omar played a lot longer than Smith. If you give Omar credit for his full seasons (from age 23 to age 40) Omar posted an OPS+ of 86. Most of Omar's offensive deficiencies (at least compared to Ozzie) came at the tail end of his career. Omar was not the defensive player Ozzie was, and thus ranks this low on my list, but I don't think it's fair to dismiss him based on his offense. If our understanding of defense improved, and somehow indicated Omar was almost as good as Ozzie defensively (or at least as good or better than Aparicio): I would be open to voting for him into the Hall of Fame.
18. Jeff Kent
I don't quite get the Jeff Kent love, he's a pretty open and shut case for me. I look at it this way: how many second baseman, outside the Hall of Fame, rank ahead of Kent in my book?
Bobby Grich
Chase Utley
Lou Whitaker
Now, if I look at active players the list expands to:
This doesn't even include Chuck Knoblauch, who had some crazy seasons, and I think he was really underrated in his time. Willie Randolph was awesome. Overall: I think Kent is probably the fourth or fifth best second baseman outside the Hall of Fame. He had a ton of power, but played in the most supercharged era of his time. He's a clear no for me.
17. Lance Berkman
I will write more on Berkman, but I was stunned how well he ranks in JAWS. Berkman ranks 20th all time, and he's only two bWAR behind the LF standard for WAR7, which is minimal. What surprises me more is who's ahead of him on that list and not in the Hall of Fame:
Barry Bonds (Steroids)
Pete Rose (Gambling)
Manny Ramirez (Steroids)
Minnie Minoso
I firmly believe Minoso belongs in the Hall of Fame, thus it stunned me only four players have a higher peak than Berkman and aren't in the Hall. To be fair, right behind Berkman is Ryan Braun, Sherry Magee, and Charlie Keller. So perhaps this means less than I think it might.
16. Sammy Sosa
Sosa is one of the players who I hardened against after writing his series. I initially placed Sosa higher on the ballot count. Unlike some players ahead of him: Sosa actually beats the WAR7 score for right fielders. However, when debating Sheffield & Sosa, I asked myself this question: who was the better hitter? Answer: Sheffield. Sheffield accumulated 561 batting runs in his career. Sosa? 333. It is true Sammy Sosa was a good fielder and baserunner as a young man, but that's not the player who would get inducted into the Hall of Fame. Sosa is in this discussion for home runs, and I don't think they're enough considering everything else.
15. Gary Sheffield
My position on Sheffield hardened, largely because I want to make a statement: if we are to consider the full player, we need to mark down players for what they were not good at. Sheffield was an awful fielder, which hurt his team. I am willing to reconsider Sheffield if better defensive information indicates I am wrong, but right now he's a pretty firm 'no'.
14. Fred McGriff
I originally had McGriff even lower on this list. McGriff really was a terrific hitter. I am troubled by how close a hitter he was to Todd Helton; McGriff actually has a higher career OPS+ than Helton. However, I cannot ignore his weak defense and poor baserunning. I also reject the notion McGriff was harmed by the Selig Era. Crime Dog's 30 home run seasons late in his career were not the same as the seasons in which he led the league.
13. Andy Pettitte
Excellent pitcher, excellent post season record. However, Pettitte is the fifth best pitcher on this ballot, he's a soft no for me right now.
12. Andruw Jones
I am of the opinion Jones is a Hall of Famer. Yes, his career was short, but he jammed a ton of value in his youth. He was a better player than Kenny Lofton, and I think Lofton belongs. The only difference is Lofton had a second act career: Jones did not. Andruw Jones may also be the best fielding center fielder of all time. Kenny Lofton managed 108 fielding runs above average in his career, Andruw Jones 235. When you consider the other pieces of the puzzle, Lofton closes the gap. Lofton was an amazing baserunner (101 runs above average...Jones 8), and was a better hitter than people remember. But Jones was something else. It's a shame he isn't getting any traction.
11. Roy Halladay
Halladay was off my ballot both before and after this exercise: but I think starting pitchers need a re-evaluation for modern times. of the top 5 starters in JAWS, only one pitched in the past half century. I do not at all believe that Cy Young, Walter Johnson, and Kid Nichols should pull up the JAWS standard so much nobody can reach it. I am not convinced any pitcher will ever again reach the career JAWS standard for starting pitchers. Clayton Kershaw & Zach Greinke are the only active pitchers within 10 bWAR, and both are showing signs of decline. Both could fall off a cliff, and nobody would be shocked.
10. Todd Helton
Helton was essentially Fred McGriff offensively, with a better glove, and better baserunning. Had McGriff managed at least average defense and base running he would probably be in the Hall of Fame already.
9. Scott Rolen
I docked Rolen some points: he relies really heavily on his defense for his JAWS score. I never got to watch Rolen extensively on defense, so I personally don't have a ton of an opinion on it. He was a great player, who struggled to remain healthy. But by golly what a combination on offense and defense.
8. Manny Ramirez
Manny may be the best hitter on this list not named Barry Bonds. I dock him a bit because his defense was almost as bad as Gary Sheffield's. He wasn't a good baserunner, and was a complete jerk. His PED use later in his career concerns me, but he may be the best hitter I have ever seen.
I had Edgar higher originally too. Another amazing hitter, and he will finally earn induction into the Hall of Fame.
6. Larry Walker
Much was made on Tim Raines making the Hall of Fame, and how he compared to Tony Gwynn. I think Walker may have been better than both of them. Walker was a three way threat his entire career, with a tremendous bat. There are really three hitters all on the same stratosphere on this list: Edgar Martinez, Gary Sheffield, and Larry Walker. Walker was the best fielder and baserunner of the bunch. If only Walker could stay healthy. I think if Edgar had played third his entire career, it would more closely resemble Walker's: more value on defense, sacrificed by playing less. Just my 10 cents.
5. & 4. Curt Schilling & Mike Mussina
I rank them the same: they were really similar pitchers. Schilling was probably a touch better at his best, and had the better post season record. Mussina ended more gracefully, and is less of a jerk. Overall you can mix and match and not get a wrong answer. Of the two, it still stuns me Schilling is not in the Hall of Fame. He has the best strikeout to walk ratio in history, and struck out 3,000 batters. How is that not Hall of Fame worthy? If he just kept his trap shut, he'd probably be at the same level as Mussina right now.
Rivera was the best closer I ever saw. I saw enough of him, and he played forever. My favorite factoid on Rivera is the Bible quote Rivera embroidered on his glove, Phillippians 4:13 "I can do all things through Christ, who strengthens me." A truly humble and amazing person. I hope he is unanimous.
2 & 1. Roger Clemens & Barry Bonds
I don't understand how you vote for one and not the other. Arguably the best pitcher and position player of all time. I don't think anything else need be said.
How my Rankings Changed
Originally my list was (from 1-20): Bonds, Clemens, Rivera, Martinez, Rolen, Walker, Helton, Mussina, Schilling, Manny, Jones, Halladay, Sosa, Pettitte, Sheffield, Wagner, Kent, McGriff, & Vizquel. I did not even consider Berkman. A few things stood out to me as I wrote this series:
1. Modern starting pitchers are underrated by JAWS. The ability of Deadball Era pitchers to pitch forever, and log tons of innings, inflates their bWAR scores. WAR is a cumulative statistic, and when a pitcher pitches more innings, they post a higher WAR. Comparing Pettitte, Halladay, Mussina, & Schilling to the older standard is difficult. They did not have the opportunity to play like Cy Young. The game has changed, and thus even though the five starters I ranked did not quite match up as well to the JAWS standard as other players on this list at other positions: it wasn't their fault. I adjusted accordingly. Pettitte, in particular, surprised me. He had a great career, which (by career bWAR), ranks 64th all time. Most of the not in the Hall of Fame ahead of him are ones I would induct, including the 4 I've already discussed there's:
Luis Tiant, Clayton Kershaw, Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, Zach Greinke. All of them are Hall of Famers in my book. There's also C.C. Sabathia, who's damn close. Finally we have Kevin Brown, David Cone & Wes Ferrell, who are all interesting in their own right. The remaining pitchers are all dead ball pitchers. In short: Pettitte is really close to the line, and I might change my mind.
2. We need to consider defense, and a player's weakness more than we do. Specialists are over-represented in the Hall of Fame. This is why Larry Walker jumped in my rankings, and Sheffield dropped.
Scott Rolen kinda stumps me, but the third base position is pretty underrepresented overall in the Hall of Fame anyway. It's not fair to judge Rolen like a first baseman (otherwise he'd have to hit better than McGriff & Helton to get in), but the defense there is less important than shortstop. Rolen had a short career, I think I overrated him.
3. Relievers are over represented. Transcending the position means Mariano Rivera, not Trevor Hoffman. Wagner is too similar to too many other relievers. We'd have to open a reliever wing if we start letting Billy Wagner set the standard for relievers.
Prediction Time
OK. So here is my prediction for what actually happens this year in the ballot:
1. Lee Smith is the only player elected in the Today's Game Committee. It will be closer, he may only get 12 votes, but I think it happens. History is on Smith's side.
2. Mariano Rivera is inducted first ballot resoundingly: over 95% of the vote. This is a cowardly prediction, but it's safe. Rivera has a chance at unanimity, I guess as good as anyone's.
3. Edgar Martinez is also inducted. Another obvious one, he may get over 90% of the vote.
4. Mike Mussina comes up just short, but over 71%. Mussina is trending up, but not quite enough so far. I think he falls short, kinda like Biggio & Hoffman recently.
5. The polarizing candidates rise up into spitting distance of 75%. I think Schilling gets to about 60-65% (where Mussina was last year), and Clemens/Bonds creep into the 60% range.
6. Vizquel gets to 45%. He's gaining votes right now, and I think the deluge will start next year, when the ballot clears a bit.
7. Roy Halladay is inducted first ballot. This is a gamble, but I think Roy's death will spur the electorate (much easier to vote for a dead guy I suppose).
8. Andruw Jones falls off the ballot. I don't see his candidacy going anywhere.
9. Fred McGriff gets enough of a spike to get induction in the Today's Game Committee in 6 years.
10. Todd Helton gets 35% of the vote. A healthy showing, but not a lock for induction.