Belated, Midseason TOP Ten (9) Royals Prospects

It's been a couple of years since I published my last midseason top 10 prospect list (2015). Primarily, it was just pointless to sort through a variety of 45 and 40FV prospects, when the system lacked a top tier. This year however, mlbpipeline has the Royals with 10 prospects at 50FV or higher. My own personal assessment is similar in that I have nine Royals as 50 FV prospects. However, I don't necessarily agree with them individually.

First off, I will refer back to the mlbpipeline evaluation system of FV for future value. This system is a little different than the Fangraphs FV system. You'll often find prospects listed at +5 FV at mlbpipeline versus Fangraphs. But, I wanted to create a useful standard for comparison.

Second, I tend to be hesitant to buy into first year stats of newly drafted players. So, a couple of Royals draft picks producing well since the draft are very interesting to me. I am just a little hesitant on changing my draft rankings until at least the end of the season.

Third, as the title states this is belated since I finalized my list just before the Moose trade. I just needed the time to actually write the project up. Due to the delay, I might still mix and match quoted stats between then and current stats. They just won't change the grade I originally had for the player.

Fourth TINSTAAPP, mixing position players and pitchers is already inherently troubling. Even more problematic is mixing young pitchers with older pitchers. Younger pitchers are less likely to have a third pitch in the arsenal, increasing their chances of heading to the bullpen. Also, we're often talking as much about projection as actual current ability. We saw this with the recent 2018 draft were 4 of the top 5 bonuses went to players over 20 years old. This has been decried on this site as a high floor low upside play. But, even some of these older prospects may find themselves headed to the bullpen. This hasn't even gotten to the point of pitcher injuries. As far as we know Kyle Zimmer never lost his top 100 stuff, he just can't pitch. So, even with the best of the best, there is still a very high variance of outcomes. TINSTAAPP

1. Khalil Lee 50+FV - I won't get into Khalil Lee to much, since he has been covered maybe more than any other Royals prospect. He has a unique upside of a 5 tool player with hit/power/run/defense/arm. The power has played down this summer possibly due to Wilmington. But, that has been more than made up by the defensive growth for Lee. At the beginning of the season, most prospect evaluaters saw Lee as a future right-fielder. Lee's play in center this year has however swayed the majority into seeing him as a viable center-field prospect. Fangraphs and our own Kevin prospect writer who view him as a future right-fielder are starting to become the minority. In fact, if I was in that camp, then I'm not certain I'd have Lee as a 50FV player anymore. The dreaded tweener tag a la David DeJesus would likely be applied to him.

2. Brady Singer 50 FV - I won't get into the whole did he drop or not debate. But, looking back to the early pre-draft coverage, we didn't cover Singer much since we didn't feel he would be available at 18. Only toward the end of the college season, did that possibility become more likely. Two problems come into play with ranking Singer, his Fastball and his change. Mlbpipeline is probably the highest on Singer seeing a pitcher with two fastballs with different speeds from 91-96 and great movement giving him a 60FV even without elite velocity speed. The changeup was also rarely used in college and will be a key to his success, the more bullish evaluaters see a future plus pitch that is currently inconsistent, but will improve with reps.

3. Nicky Lopez 50FV - After a rough start to AA last year, Nicky has recovered the eye that allows him a BB% above 10 with elite contact ability when he does swing. AAA has seen a decline in the contact ability, but with an increase in power. Further, some evaluaters of his defense have seen improvement. Nicky has changed from a likely utility infielder prospects to a serious regular infield prospect.

4. Seuly Matias 50FV - The biggest upside versus variance prospect in the Royals system. Matias has elite power and an elite arm. But, we'll have to see how long he can stay in right-field and if he is able to make more contact and show a better eye without losing that power. Already in some top 100 lists, improvement in his peripherals could have him rocket up to the top of every prospect list. Matias has actually dropped in my rankings. But, you can still see that future hall of famer upside in him.

5. Yohanse Morel 50FV - Yohanse was the primary target in the Kelvin Herrera trade. But due to age and a sudden improvement in his scouting report, very little is written about him. I must admit that I have drunk the Royal blue Kool-aid when it comes to this prospect. As I buy into all the less trusty worthy secondary information out there about him. Of course at Royals Review we already have a meme that if you need 5 ifs to become true, then the overall outcome won't happen. Morel is nice in that even if all the ifs aren't true, he may fall out of the top 9, but he's still a 45FV high value prospect.

So, first lets starts with the trustworthy stuff in the form of Baseball America. They see him as throwing up to 95 with projection to fill out and add velocity and a feel for a power slider. You'll see this report almost word for word or simply cross-referenced to on many other sites. But, Fangraphs has a very confusing report on him that seems to not be updated. They write like they are going to report an updated speed but fail to do so. Then they compare him to a pitcher that has a fastball from 88-92 and say Morel is slower. Morel by the way was reported to be 88-91 last year. Finally they say Morel doesn't have projection for more velocity. I don't think I have to go out on a limb here to trust the more concise and fact based BA report over Fangraphs. But, if you are a Fangraphs aficionado, then there isn't much I can say to sway you.

At this point Morel compares quite favorably to many second round prep pitchers taken in 2018 with a 45FV grade at mlbpipeline. So, how does he get to 50FV. Well, reports on Morel are few and far between, a tweet here a mention on a podcast there. These partial reports come from people with varying levels of credibility plus simply the unreliability of radar guns. Once again the fact that I believe these reports means I'm drinking that Royal blue Kool-aid. If you don't want to believe some or even all of these unsubstantiated claims that is more than reasonable.

Secondary reports confirm that Morels best secondary pitch is a slider. Other reports have him throwing up to 96 and even 97, with a consistent 93-94 even late into games. And as with basically any 17/18 year old pitcher the change is a work in progress.

So lets do a comparison:

Player A: FB 88-92, OK curve-ball and developing change, no projection on his frame, has trouble carrying his stuff deep into games

Player B: FB 93-94, good slider and developing change, frame has projection, carries stuff into game, better than normal prep pro BB%

Player C: FB 93-94 hits 97, inconsistent slurve and developing change, Frame has projection, carries stuff into game, control needs work

Player D: FB 91-92 can run up to 93-94, possible plus change and curve, frame lacks projection

Player A is Simeon Woods -Richardson. He was #100 Fangraphs and #160 Mlbpipeline. He was taken on pick 48 for $1.85M and is given a 45FV. He's the one Fangraphs compared Morel to but whiffing by saying Woods-Richardson was faster when Morel is actually faster. Player B is Morel. Player C is Lyon Richardson. He was #83 Fangraphs and #67 Mlbpipeline. He was taken on pick 47 for just under $2M and given a 50FV. He beats Morel on FB, but I like Morel's slider and control better. Player D: Jayson Schroeder. He was #93 mlbpipeline. He was taken on pick 66 for $1.25M and given a 45FV. I like Morel's FB and control better. and grade the curve close to Morel's slider, Schroeder gets the nod on the current change however.

In the end, I think Morel is quite comparable overall to Richardson and I gave him the 50FV. At worst, he's better or comparable to the other 45FV prep pitchers taken in the last draft. So have I convinced anyone else to drink the Royal blue Kool-aid about Morel also?

6 and 7 - Sebastion Rivero and MJ Melendez,50 FV- pick your order. They are both 19 year old defense first catchers at A ball Lexington hitting roughly league average. Melendez 99 wOBA+ and Rivero 100 wOBA+. Melendez probably has the higher upside since he has already tapped into his power, while Rivero hasn't yet tapped into his projected power. Rivero however has the better contact ability giving him the higher floor.

8 Yefri Del Rosario. 50FV - He is 18 years old holding his own at A ball Lexington. He has a nice fastball power curve mix and a developing change-up. Although the statement 18 years old and developing change-up are basically redundant. The variance is still very high with a good chance of becoming a reliever if the change-up doesn't develop. I put him behind Morel due to the less than stellar command.

9 Gabriel Cancel 50FV - After a slow start to the season, Cancel warmed up with the weather. Overal he's seen an improvement in BB% and K%, but has seen his power decline due to Wilmington's effect on right-handed power. There are still questions about his long term viability at second. But, if he can stick at second, he could be a nice bat first secondbaseman.

This is where the 50 FV players ended. You can really take your pick from a plethora of 45FV players. Daniel Lynch and Kyle Isbel are having strong pro debuts and could soon be pushing for 45+FV status. Michael Gigliotti was in their position last year only to lose this season to an ACL injury. I became down a bit as the draft arrived on Jackson Kowar, thinking he is more likely a bullpen piece. Blake Perkins was a nice lottery ticket in the Morel trade with a good floor due to defense and BB%. I can't get quite as excited about a reliever as Shaun Newkirk can with Richard Lovelady. I just think it is very difficult to predict the difference between a run of the mill 0-1 WAR relievers versus an elite 1.8+ WAR reliever. Bubic, Carlos Hernandez, Elier Hernandez, Arnaldo Hernandez, Daniel Tillo,Andres Stotillet, Brewer Hicklen, Emmanuel Rivera, Elvis Luciano, and Juan Carlos Negret were all players I'd consider in the 45 FV range. But just to throw out a name little heard around here, I make my number 10 from this list of 45FV's:

10 Rubendy Jaquez 45FV - The thirdbase tree is dead, long live the thirdbase tree. Jaquez is in his third year in the Royals organization. He primarily played second before this year, but seems to have found a home at thirdbase. He has always shown a good eye and decent contact ability. This year he has added some power to his profile and is hitting with a 139 wRC+for the Arizona Royals. He is definitely one to keep an eye on in future.