Breaking down NASCAR’s championship odds for its final 4 drivers at Phoenix

After nine NASCAR Cup Series playoff races going back to September, the original 16 championship contenders have been whittled down to the final four.

Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin are the last ones standing, and they’ll race for the title on Sunday at Phoenix Raceway (3 p.m. ET, NBC).

Larson enters the Championship 4 race with a series-high of nine wins this season, and of the final four drivers, he’s the only one to qualify automatically for the title race with a victory in the previous playoff round. The other three drivers all secured their spots based on earned points in the driver standings.

But none of that matters now.

The Championship 4 drivers will compete at Phoenix on Sunday in a winner-take-all race for NASCAR’s giant trophy. But they don’t actually have to win the race to win the championship because the crown goes to whichever driver has the highest finish among the final four. However, as recent years have shown, the winner of the championship usually takes the checkered flag anyway.

NASCAR playoffs guide: Everything you need to know about the postseason format

In the Hendrick Motorsports versus Joe Gibbs Racing season finale, defending champ Elliott and 2017 champ Truex are both racing for their second title, while Larson and Hamlin are seeking their first.

So just days away from the end of the season as NASCAR prepares to crown another champion, here’s a look at the four drivers’ odds to win the title, per Tipico Sportsbook as of Thursday, along with a breakdown of their past performances at Phoenix and this season.

Kyle Larson, No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet +175

Phoenix Raceway stats
Starts: 14
Phoenix 2021 spring race: 7th
Best finish: 2nd, 2017
Top 5s: 5
Top 10s: 8
Average start: 7.3
Average finish: 11.6
Laps led: 72

2021 season stats
Wins: 9
Top 5s: 19
Top 10s: 25
Laps led: 2,474

Chase Elliott, No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet +250

Phoenix Raceway stats
Starts: 11
Phoenix 2021 spring race: 5th
Best finish: 1st, 2020
Top 5s: 4
Top 10s: 7
Average start: 4.7
Average finish: 11.2
Laps led: 402

2021 season stats
Wins: 2
Top 5s: 14
Top 10s: 20
Laps led: 858

Denny Hamlin, No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota +270

Phoenix Raceway stats
Starts: 32
Phoenix 2021 spring race: 3rd
Best finish: 1st, 2012 and 2019
Top 5s: 15
Top 10s: 19
Average start: 9.8
Average finish: 10.8
Laps led: 854

2021 season stats
Wins: 2
Top 5s: 18
Top 10s: 24
Laps led: 1,502

Martin Truex Jr., No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota +350

Phoenix Raceway stats
Starts: 31
Phoenix 2021 spring race: 1st
Best finish: 1st, 2021
Top 5s: 5
Top 10s: 13
Average start: 11.9
Average finish: 15.4
Laps led: 187

2021 season stats
Wins: 4
Top-5s: 12
Top-10s: 19
Laps led: 793

While Larson is the clear favorite to win it all — and he has been throughout the playoffs and for much of the season — if you’re looking for an alternative option to bet on, consider Truex. At the beginning of NASCAR’s postseason, we predicted Truex would win the season finale and his second championship, and we’re sticking with that pick.

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