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The pulse died overnight

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Hello Friends,

When a swell ramps up as quickly as it did yesterday, the fade can be similarly speedy. At 0700 the MHL buoy was registering 2 metres of 10-second straight south swell. That’s about the height it was at dusk yesterday. Apparently it hit 5 metres briefly in the middle of the night. When I did the Manly run this morning, the surface conditions were glassy and the tide was making everywhere full (the 1010 high was 1.96m). The straight south angle meant that most of the energy was missing us. The folks in the water at Manly were waiting a very long time for the waist-high sets to turn up. Although it was bigger at Curly, no one was in the water, nor did I see a single surfer on the Dee Why to Longy stretch.

Although it was WSW at 1000, the wind’s due to come around to the NE this afternoon, so, maybe… when the tide drops a protected north corner could possibly offer hope.

The swell models show the sweill hanging in there at about the current size tomorrow, but very gradually swinging toward the SE as the day goes along. Again, the morning’s probably going to be swamped by the tide. Maybe the north corners out of the NE wind for the late?

By Thursday the GFS model has the swell around to the east but with average periods in the 7-8 second range and swell height around a metre – i.e. marginal. Hey, water’s 23 C, so it’s not all bad!

Go well everyone.

 


Weather Situation

A high pressure system over the Bight extends a ridge over the NSW coast. The ridge will persist as the high moves gradually eastwards and enters the Tasman Sea, with winds turning easterly then northeasterly. Then, a weak southerly change will move along the southern and central parts of the coast on Thursday, before decaying as the ridge reestablishes itself Friday.

Forecast for Tuesday until midnight

Winds
East to southeasterly 10 to 15 knots turning northeasterly during the afternoon and evening.
Seas
Below 1 metre.
Swell
Southerly 1.5 to 2.5 metres.
Weather
Cloudy.

Wednesday 4 February

Winds
North to northeasterly 15 to 20 knots, reaching up to 25 knots offshore in the evening.
Seas
Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
Swell
Southeasterly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Weather
Partly cloudy.

Thursday 5 February

Winds
Northerly 15 to 20 knots.
Seas
1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
Swell
Southeasterly around 1 metre.
Weather
Mostly sunny

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