Sunny morning but very small waves
Hello Friends,
When I grabbed the snaps around 0900, the skies were sunny and the westerly was puffing along at 7-10 kts. Out at sea the MHL buoy’s 0730 data showed 1.2 metres of 11 second east swell. But though the 1.59 m peak was a couple of hours away, Dee Why beach and the point looked fat and full. There were long waits between the ankle to knee-high sets. An excellent morning to go for an exercise paddle, but not much else.
The ECMWF model shows the swell moving SE tomorrow, but it’s indicating periods of only 6 seconds and it lines up with the Bureau’s advice that wind will be southerly. Plus the weather’s set to be showery. Longer range, the model is showing 8-second, 2.5 metre south swell for Monday morning along with SW wind. The GFS model is more hopeful for Monday with a prediction of 15 second period, 1.5 m south swell and westerly wind. Both models show energy levels in the 2-ish metre, 10-sec range from the SE by Wednesday. As always, your mileage may vary.
Have a great Wednesday everyone and check out the 9-minute video I posted this morning of last week’s big east swell at Surfrider Gardens.
Weather Situation
A cold front is crossing the state’s south before slipping further south, with its associated trough brushing the coast midweek. Then, winds will turn northerly and strengthen on Friday ahead of a series of stronger cold fronts that looks set to cross the coastal waters during the weekend through the early next week, with fresh to strong gusty southwesterly wind change in the wake.
Forecast for Wednesday until midnight
- Winds
- West to southwesterly below 10 knots becoming southerly in the late afternoon then increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Winds reaching up to 20 knots inshore in the late evening.
- Seas
- Below 1 metre.
- Swell
- Southeasterly around 1 metre.
- Weather
- Partly cloudy. 70% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm offshore, mainly in the afternoon and evening.
Thursday 14 August
- Winds
- Southerly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots inshore during the morning. Winds turning east to southeasterly below 10 knots during the day.
- Seas
- 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the afternoon.
- 1st Swell
- South to southwesterly below 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore during the morning.
- 2nd Swell
- Easterly around 1 metre.
- Weather
- Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers.
Friday 15 August
- Winds
- Variable about 10 knots becoming northerly 15 to 20 knots during the day then tending northwesterly during the evening.
- Seas
- Below 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the evening.
- Swell
- Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing to around 1 metre during the afternoon.
- Weather
- Mostly sunny.