Smooth seas before the swell arrives
Hello Friends,
The first band of showers arrived around daybreak along with an accelerating SW wind. As of 0830 the wind was 17-30 kts from the SW. As you can see from the pictures, the swell hasn’t ramped up yet. It was around the waist high mark on sets at Dee Why when I grabbed the pics. Very clean too, so while it’ll soon change it was quite approachable.
The Bureau tells us to expect the easterly swell component to be in the 2-3 metre range by lunchtime. The southerly component is expected to be in the 1.5 metre range, but shifting SW (ie, going away from the coast) as the day goes along.
From the look of the swell models, the energy levels currently appear likely to peak overnight with the combined swells leading potentially to wave faces of 5+ metres on sets. Tomorrow does not look surfable for spots like Dee Why. Experienced riders may have options at places like Fairy Bower, but even they may pass until late in the day when the energy begins subsiding into the 2-3 metre range. By Friday it should be back to more typical 2+ metre conditions.
I’ll keep an eye on it and if possible will update when the swell fills in later today.
Have a good one!
Weather Situation
A vigorous coastal low pressure system off the north coast is forecast to move southwards to the coastal waters off the central parts of the coast today while intensifying, bringing vigorous winds and large powerful waves over the coastal waters today and Wednesday. Winds and surf conditions are forecast to ease gradually later in the week as the low starts to move further offshore from Thursday and this system will be followed by a high pressure ridge moving across the state.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
Gale Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
- Winds
- Southerly 20 to 30 knots, reaching up to 40 knots during the afternoon and evening. Winds turning southwesterly 25 to 30 knots during the afternoon and evening.
- Seas
- 1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 2.5 to 4 metres during the morning.
- 1st Swell
- Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 2 to 3 metres during the morning, then increasing to 2.5 to 4 metres later in the evening.
- 2nd Swell
- Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1.5 metres around midday, then tending southwesterly around 1 metre by early evening.
- Weather
- Cloudy. Near 100% chance of rain. Heavy falls possible. The chance of a thunderstorm.
- Caution
- Large and powerful surf conditions in the afternoon and evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Wednesday 2 July
Storm Force Wind Warning for Wednesday for Sydney Coast
- Winds
- Southwesterly 30 to 45 knots, reaching up to 50 knots offshore in the late morning.
- Seas
- 3 to 5 metres.
- 1st Swell
- Easterly 3 to 4 metres, tending southeasterly 3 to 4 metres during the morning, then tending easterly 3 to 4 metres during the afternoon.
- 2nd Swell
- South to southwesterly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 2 to 3 metres offshore.
- Weather
- Cloudy. Near 100% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm.
- Caution
- Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Thursday 3 July
- Winds
- Southwesterly 25 to 35 knots.
- Seas
- 3 metres, increasing to 2 to 4 metres inshore.
- 1st Swell
- Southerly 3 to 5 metres.
- 2nd Swell
- Easterly 1 to 1.5 metres inshore, increasing to 1 to 2 metres offshore.
- Weather
- Cloudy. 95% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm.