Sunny, little waves, what’s not to like?
Hello Friends,
One more beautiful winter morning for Sydneysiders and we still have waves to play on at the better exposures. As of 0900 the wind was coming lightly from the west and out at sea the swell was SE and 1.3 metres at 10 seconds. Tide was coming in off the 0610 low and only gaining about a metre to the high at 1215. The weather call is for a sunny morning but with the wind gradually swinging to the S-SE as we get into the afternoon. There’s a 50% chance of a shower before nightfall.
And then…
We’re in for serious weather as an East Coast Low forms offshore. These things are unpredictable, but this morning’s call from the Bureau is 35-90mm of rain along with SW wind of 30-45 kts (double it for km/h). This morning’s chores at RealSurf HQ include a check of the current rain and wind readiness. It’s hard to imagine anywhere with the slightest chance of being surfable. Swell is predicted to be a mix of east and south swell energy, each of which will be in the 2-3 metre range.
On Wednesday it looks like the winds are bonkers early (SW 35-50 kts in the morning!!!) and the swell is a massive mix of straight south at 4-6 metres and easterly component at a mere 3-4 metres. If that isn’t a recipe for a significant likelihood of coastal erosion, I don’t know what is. Meanwhile the weather will be cloudy and showery.
Looking at the models it appears we’ll have massive swell through Friday. The wind should be decreasing in intensity, so some big wave locations might be approachable by the very fit and experienced riders. But for most of us, a shoulder to head high surf on Saturday is more likely.
Batten down your hatches folks and fingers crossed that this event doesn’t do too much damage.
Weather Situation
A ridge extends over the coastal waters. A trough will move over the coastal waters on Monday. A complex low with the potential to become an east coast low will develop in the trough on Tuesday and move east across the Tasman Sea from Thursday.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
- Winds
- Variable about 10 knots becoming southerly 10 to 15 knots in the early morning. Winds reaching up to 20 knots inshore in the late evening.
- Seas
- Around 1 metre.
- Swell
- Southerly around 1 metre inshore, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
- Weather
- Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
Tuesday 1 July
Gale Warning for Tuesday for Sydney Coast
- Winds
- Southerly 15 to 25 knots increasing to 20 to 30 knots during the early morning then tending south to southwesterly 30 to 45 knots in the afternoon.
- Seas
- 1 to 2 metres, increasing to 2 to 4 metres during the morning.
- 1st Swell
- Southerly around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning, then tending south to southwesterly 2 to 3 metres by early evening.
- 2nd Swell
- Easterly around 1 metre, increasing to 2 to 3 metres around midday.
- Weather
- Cloudy. 95% chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm.
- Caution
- Large and powerful surf conditions in the afternoon and evening are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Wednesday 2 July
- Winds
- Southwesterly 35 to 50 knots decreasing to 25 to 30 knots during the afternoon.
- Seas
- 3 to 5 metres.
- 1st Swell
- South to southwesterly 2 to 4 metres, increasing to 4 to 6 metres during the afternoon or evening.
- 2nd Swell
- Easterly 2.5 to 3 metres, increasing to 3 to 4 metres during the morning.
- Weather
- Cloudy. 95% chance of showers. The chance of a thunderstorm.
- Caution
- Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.