South change arrives
Hello Friends,
The south change hit Sydney at 0100 last night it blew straight south 20-30 kts until 0700 and then moved a little to the SSW. Swell was SSW , 3.6 metres and 9 seconds apart according to the 0600 data from the MHL. So, while it’s sizable at open stretches, most of the energy is pushing away from the coast. There were only four people in the water in the corner at Dee Why when I grabbed the snaps shortly before 0800. As you can see, the surface conditions were not too clean but the set wave faces were hitting the head high mark.
Tomorrow should see the wind swing SE as the swell fades to around 2 metres. And by Wednesday the ECMWF model predicts that this burst of energy should all but have faded away as swell heights drop back to a metre or less and the period weakens to 5-6 seconds. The GFS model is showing similar numbers, but it shows longer period energy (though tiny swell heights) on Thursday. Both models show small to near-flat conditions are likely through the weekend and into next week. Of course predictions that far out are subject to wild swings in accuracy.
Have yourself a top old Monday!
Forecast issued at 4:10 am EDT on Monday 17 March 2025.
Weather Situation
A high pressure ridge lingers over northeast New South Wales. A prefrontal trough and cold front is currently crossing central New South Wales, and is forecast to cross the remainder of the coast and northern inland through Monday. This will be replaced by a new high pressure ridge extending from a high over the Bight, which will slowly move eastwards over the Tasman Sea through the midweek. A new trough is forecast to build over central and northwestern New South Wales during Wednesday through Thursday.
Forecast for Monday until midnight
Strong Wind Warning for Monday for Sydney Coast
- Winds
- Southerly 25 to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 25 knots in the middle of the day.
- Seas
- 2.5 to 3 metres, decreasing to 1.5 to 2 metres during the afternoon.
- Swell
- Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, increasing to 2.5 to 4 metres during the morning.
- Weather
- Partly cloudy.
- Caution
- Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Tuesday 18 March
- Winds
- Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots becoming easterly below 10 knots in the morning then tending northeasterly 10 to 15 knots in the late afternoon.
- Seas
- Around 1 metre, decreasing below 0.5 metres during the morning, then increasing to below 1 metre around midday.
- Swell
- Southerly 2 to 3 metres, decreasing to 2 metres by early evening.
- Weather
- Cloudy.
Wednesday 19 March
- Winds
- Northeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
- Seas
- Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the afternoon.
- Swell
- Southerly 1.5 to 2 metres, decreasing to 1.5 metres during the morning.
- Weather
- Partly cloudy.