Scruffy swell
1400 update:
As of 1330, the wind was SSE at 14-18 kts and the MHL buoy was seeing 2.5 metres of 7.7 second energy from ENE around to the ESE. Surf was junky and in the chest to shoulder plus range at the “best” exposures. The Bureau tells us they expect we’ll see the cyclone waves by tomorrow. Of course the wind’ll still be SE-ESE and the weather looks like being rainy with it. The onshores and showery weather look like lasting through the weekend, while the solid swell energy is expected to do a slow fade across the weekend.
Forecast updated at 6:46 am EDT on Tuesday 4 March 2025.
Weather Situation
A trough about the Hunter coast is weakening as a high pressure system entering the southern Tasman Sea extends a ridge along the coast. Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone Alfred (Category 1), currently over the southern Coral Sea, is forecast to track south before turning west towards southeastern Queensland later today and reintensify to category 2. Tropical Cyclone Alfred will continue westward through Wednesday and make landfall on Thursday in southeastern Queensland. This will bring strengthening easterly winds, reaching gale force winds along the far north coast from Wednesday, and large powerful east to northeasterly swells along the northern and central coast.
Forecast for Tuesday until midnight
- Winds
- Southeasterly 15 to 25 knots.
- Seas
- 1.5 to 2 metres.
- 1st Swell
- Northeasterly 1 to 1.5 metres, increasing to 1.5 to 2 metres around midday, then tending easterly 2 to 2.5 metres during the afternoon.
- 2nd Swell
- Southerly 1.5 metres, tending southeasterly 1 to 2 metres during the morning.
- Weather
- Partly cloudy. 80% chance of showers.
Wednesday 5 March
- Winds
- Southeasterly 10 to 15 knots, reaching up to 20 knots offshore during the day.
- Seas
- Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres offshore.
- 1st Swell
- Easterly 2.5 to 3 metres inshore, increasing to 2.5 to 4 metres offshore.
- 2nd Swell
- Southerly 1 to 1.5 metres, decreasing below 1 metre during the morning.
- Weather
- Partly cloudy. 50% chance of showers.
- Caution
- Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Thursday 6 March
- Winds
- Southeasterly 15 to 20 knots.
- Seas
- Around 1 metre, increasing to 1 to 1.5 metres during the morning.
- Swell
- Easterly 3 to 4 metres, decreasing to 2.5 to 3 metres during the morning.
- Weather
- Partly cloudy. 60% chance of showers.
- Caution
- Large and powerful surf conditions are expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as crossing bars by boat and rock fishing.
Earlier:
Away from my usual data resources this morning, so here’s the eyeball report from the beaches. The SE wind is junking up what looks to be around a metre and a bit of east to SE 8ish second swell.
The open stretches are so junky that no one was in the water at exposed stretches such as Curl Curl and Dee Why. Even protected locations like the Bower were copping the chop. Plus the swell’s not wrapping in.
So all and all a missile morning for Sydney surfers. If the schedule permits, I’ll do an update later.