Column: Is the Chicago Cubs offense for real or is it too small of a sample size to judge?

It’s hard to remember the Chicago Cubs were 11 games over .500 in mid-June 2021, looking like a team on a mission to avoid a fire sale.

But that’s exactly what happened, of course, and after team President Jed Hoyer’s summer sell-off led to a 91-loss season, the new-look Cubs started this season with several fresh faces and lowered expectations.

Whether it was a rebuild, a re-do or a retro version of a mid-1990s Cubs team, there was no pressure to get off to a great start. And without any expectations, there was no angst Friday over a mediocre 8-11 record heading into a three-game series against the Brewers in Milwaukee.

The preferred focus was on the team’s improved hitting. The Cubs entered Friday leading the majors with a .260 average and a .344 on-base percentage, while ranking second to the Los Angeles Angels with a .746 OPS in spite of a lineup without anyone named Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani or Anthony Rendon.

That begs the question of whether it’s just a small sample size — the equivalent of a Yermín Mercedes-like April — or a sign of better things to come.

The Cubs set out to produce a lineup that made more contact after the swing-and-miss-and-miss-and-miss era that followed their 2016 World Series title. And so far, so good.

Last April the Cubs hit .216 and averaged 4.4 runs per game. Now they’re not only leading the majors in hitting but averaging 4.8 runs per game, albeit with a 21-0 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates skewing the numbers.

Small sample sizes are fine by me. They helped get me through college.

But even after three-plus decades of covering baseball, I’m still not sure when a “small sample size” morphs into a big enough sample size to make realistic judgments. I asked the Tribune’s Cubs beat writer, Meghan Montemurro, to ask manager David Ross when a sample size was considered legit.

One month? Two months? If we thought the Cubs were legit at 11 games over .500 in mid-June last year, we were sadly mistaken.

“Yeah, I’ll send one of our R&D guys out here to talk to you about that,” Ross said in Atlanta.

I wasn’t interested enough to force Meghan to listen to an R&D guy, which is cruel and unusual punishment. But fortunately Ross was just kidding.

“To be honest with you, there’s probably five to 10 different stats where there’s some of them that normalized quicker than others,” he said. “Whether it’s strikeouts, exit velocity, contact rate, the on-base (percentage). … Some of those things take a little while till you get to (about) 100-150 at-bats. And some of them normalize a lot quicker, like 50 at-bats.

“That’s what they would tell you. And so that’s what I’m sticking with.”

Fair enough. But Ross quickly changed course and went on to say that a sample size to assess one player may be completely different for another. He’s just getting to know Seiya Suzuki, but already can tell he’s a major-league hitter.

“I think you’ve got to watch with your eye, too, right?” he said. “I mean, you’ve got to trust in the season and the long process and the guys that you believe in, and some of the guys you know.

“Let’s take Ian Happ, for example. Last year he had a really tough first half but he’s a guy we believe in, tried to keep (in the lineup). Give them days off here and there, but still have moments where you’ve got to just get out there and figure it out. He figures it out and has a great second half, so he’s rolled that right into this season with a lot of confidence.

“So you’ve got to trust in your players. We’ve got guys in here that are going to be here all year, and we need them to be successful. … You try to just rely on that.”

Happ entered Friday’s game with 102 at-bats since September 18, hitting .315 with five home runs, 22 RBIs, a .424 OBP and a .924 OPS over that span. That seems like enough of a sample size to believe he’s becoming the hitter the Cubs envisioned when they made him the ninth pick of the 2015 draft. After a .226 average last season, there was some question if he would be non-tendered.

Hoyer stuck with Happ after his hot finish, and though it’s early, his faith appears to be paying off.

“Everybody’s going to have ups and downs,” Ross said. “It’s a really hard season to just be great all the way or just stink all the way through. We’ve got good players that have got some track records. We’re going to trust in them to continue to work and get better at their weaknesses, and to hone in on their strengths, and be the best version we can.

“Be better at the end than we are now.”

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