Optimal outcome could be Heat catching a shooting star in NBA draft

MIAMI – If recency bias proves prevalent in the NBA draft, the process that begins with Wednesday night’s first round could be as simple as teams, including the Miami Heat, taking their best shot.

With the Boston Celtics steamrolling their way to the championship with a five-out approach heavily reliant on spacing and 3-point shooting, the two-day draft could turn into a referendum on catching a shooting star.

“It’s part of finding a well-rounded player, the ability to do as many things as they can,” said Adam Simon, the Heat’s vice president of basketball operations and assistant general manager, who oversees the team’s draft.

And such prospects potentially could be there for the Heat should they hold their spot at No. 15, including Kentucky’s Rob Dillingham, Duke guard Jared McCain, Colorado’s Tristan de Silva and the University of Miami’s Miami’s Kyshawn George.

When the Heat drafted Nikola Jovic at No. 27 in 2022, it was with an eye on floor spacing. Such also was the case with Tyler Herro at No. 13 in 2019. But over the years, shooting hasn’t necessarily stood as an ultimate draft focus, at least since Glen Rice was selected at No. 4 in 1989, with Daequan Cook in 2007 among the exceptions.

Instead, the team’s shooting specialists largely have been developed or added as low-cost free agents, from Jason Kapono to James Jones to Wayne Ellington to Duncan Robinoson, and most recently Cole Swider on a two-way contract this past season.

Still, a case could be made that help is needed in that aspect. Herro, the Heat’s best 3-point shooter last season at .396, finished 46th in the NBA, with Duncan Robinson 49th at .395, Terry Rozier 108th at .363 and Kevin Love 138th at .344, among players with enough attempts to be ranked among the league leaders. (Jimmy Butler was .414 with just 60 conversions, Jovic at .399 on 65.)

As with other aspects of the draft, shooting largely is about a forecast, considering Tyrese Maxey entered the draft in 2020 at .292 on 3-pointers in his single season at Kentucky, now all the way up to .396 for his four-season NBA career with the Philadelphia 76ers.

“I think the challenge is that we’re making decisions on players in the draft that might have played one year or two years and may have been plus-30% shooters,” Simon said. “But there’s a bunch of ’em, players that didn’t shoot that 30 percent that come to the NBA that become 38-, 40-, 40-plus percent shooters.

“That’s the challenge of the evaluation process, to try to evaluate a player and then slot them in your draft ranking  based on the ability to be a high-level shooter in college or internationally before the draft.”

That is where workouts can help, such as the ones that have been ongoing for the Heat at Kaseya Center, not necessarily to witness lights-out shooting, but to see if the mechanics are there. Included in the Heat workouts are shooting sessions with a Noah Basketball computerized shot-tracking system, one that measures the arc and other elements of a player’s release.

“We definitely look at their stroke.,” Simon said. “We break down their shooting and see if a player’s got a nice stroke and it needs some tinkering, whether he’s off to the left, off to the right. We’ve got a Noah machine that helps chart all the players’ shots, their arcs, where they miss. So you can work with that.”

But Simon said sometimes it also has to be a leap of faith, citing the shooting success of former Heat forward Shawn Marion, a four-time All-Star who basically would shot-put the ball from his chest.

“Their stroke, some need a lot of work,” Simon said of sorting through prospects. “But look, a guy like Shawn Marion had a very unorthodox stroke, but he made ’em.”

The reality, though, is that most who can’t shoot or don’t look like they can shoot rarely come around, albeit with exceptions such Kawhi Leonard, who went from .250 as a collegian at San Diego State to his career .391 in the NBA.

“Anyone can improve by developing their technique and reps,” Simon said. “But I think there’s guys that are born to shoot, that those guys are identified. The guy that can’t shoot, I think it’s not as easy.

“But I think that’s why you go to these workouts and you go to these pro days, to try to see what their stroke looks like and if he can work on it.”