The (returning) Lakers are an average three-point shooting team
By the time the Lakers had signed Michael Beasley to their 15th and final roster spot, the NBA world was stunned that the Lakers had failed to surround LeBron James with shooters. Conventional wisdom says that, for LeBron to thrive, he has to be surrounded by competent-to-excellent three-point shooters. The Lakers had selected a strange cast of characters, none of whom were known for their shooting (with the possible exception of Beasley). Analysts were quick to point out that the Lakers finished 29th in the NBA in three-point shooting, and excoriated them for not correcting this flaw.
Many Laker fans got their hackles up at this comment. Like most basketball fans, we take umbrage when analysts underestimate our team. A quick glance at the data showed that the characterization of the Lakers as an extremely poor three-point shooting team was a bit of an overstatement. They were not very good: they shot 34.5% from three last year, making 822 of 2384 attempts. The league average was 36.3% (860 of 2370). A lot of fans felt that getting rid of Clarkson and Thomas, along with improvement from some of the young players, would go a long way to moving the Lakers to the league average. But would it?
If we separate last year’s results into players who are still with the team and players who are no longer with the team, we can begin to answer this question. Eight players remain from last year’s squad: Kuzma, Caldwell-Pope, Ball, Hart, Ingram, Ware, Caruso, Zubac, and Deng. Collectively, they shot 36.2% (557 of 1537) and took 64% of the three-pointers attempted by the team last season. That is extremely close to the league average of 36.3%. In fact, it would be unfair to characterize this group as below league average.
What about the new guys? They shot a few more three-pointers than the departing guys (880 versus 847), and shot a little better as well (34.1% versus 31.3%). If you replace the attempts of the departing players with the attempts of the incoming players, the new team made 857 of 2417 attempts, or 35.5%. That's below average. It would place them 23rd, just behind the Bulls and ahead of the Clippers. So, yeah, the Lakers have assembled a below average three-point-shooting team. By my calculation, this deficiency would cost them about three quarters of a point per game versus an average team. Not ideal.
Sure, you could make the argument that Ball might improve, or that Ingram’s number of attempts might increase, but those are pretty uncertain events. It’s entirely possible that Ball doesn’t improve, and that Ingram cannot continue his accurate shooting on high-volume. If you want to speculate, I suggest you do the following, instead: eliminate Stephenson’s attempts (please!), and double Hart’s attempts. If you do that, the team would make 868 of 2382 attempts, or 36.4%. League average.
Really, Stephenson shouldn’t even play at all. He will, I know, but hopefully Luke can convince him to stop jacking up threes. The real question is whether Hart can sustain his accurate shooting at double the volume. He certainly won’t be getting double the minutes. I believe that his summer league performance suggests that he can. Ultimately, lineup decisions will likely dictate whether the Lakers end up above or below average as a three-point shooting team this season.
The ball’s in your court, Luke.