France v Scotland, Six Nations 2023: Match Preview pt I

KO 3.00 at Stade de France
Sunday 26th February 2023
Live on ITV1

There is plenty of history behind this fixture, dating back to Scotland and France’s first encounter in 1910 (a 27 – 0 win for the dark blues at Inverleith) with their first clash in Paris coming a year later (a 16 – 15 triumph for Les Bleus).

This match will be the 100th meeting of the Auld Alliance – 3 at Rugby World Cups; 3 in RWC warm-ups; 1 in the Autumn Nations Cup; and 93 in the Five / Six Nations. France definitely hold the advantage with 57 wins to Scotland’s 39 – plus 3 draws. It’s notable that much of the Scots’ success was front-loaded, with 31 of their triumphs arriving in the amateur era.

Since 2016 though, Scotland have managed 5 wins against the French (from 10 attempts). That’s the same number of victories that they had managed in the previous 26 years (28 matches). Four of those successes have arrived during the Townsend era, although Toony still needs one more to equal Jim Telfer’s tally.

Scotland wins v France by head coach*:

5 – Jim Telfer (10 matches)
4 – Gregor Townsend (8 matches)
2 – Bill Dickinson (6 matches)
2 – Derrick Grant (4 matches)
2 – Ian McGeechan (10 matches)
1 – Vern Cotter (4 matches)
1 – Richie Dixon (2 matches)
1 – Frank Hadden (4 matches)
0 – Scott Johnson (2 matches)
0 – Nairn McEwan (3 matches)
0 – Andy Robinson (3 matches)
0 – Colin Telfer (1 match)
0 – Matt Williams (2 matches)

France Scouting Report

Hey Number Two

What makes Scotland’s recent levels of success against the French even more incroyable is that Les Bleus are enjoying a real upturn in fortunes. The number 2 in the world ranking currently held by France is the highest they have been when facing Scotland at any point in the last 20 years.

Their club game has always generated plenty of talent, almost certainly more than any other nation in the rugby world, but at times it doesn’t seem to have cohered into a group where everyone and everything is working together.

Of course dissension in the ranks has never been an impediment to past sensational showings by some of the greatest entertainers the game has ever seen. What Fabien Galthie and his coaching staff seem to have been able to do is point everyone in the right direction and get a consistency of performance that has eluded them for much of the Six Nations’ era – and was even rarely sighted among some of the great French sides of the past.

During the current RWC cycle, France have won 13 of their 17 Six Nations fixtures. That’s already more than the 2019 (9 wins) and 2015 cycles (8) and may well see them overtake 2003 (13) and 2011 (14). Only the 2007 group is out of reach. That generation won 17 out of 20 fixtures across 4 years in the lead up to the 2007 RWC before making an almighty mess of a tournament held (largely) on their own soil. Hang on a minute…

By way of comparison Scotland’s Six Nations match wins by RWC cycle are:

• 2023 -10
• 2019 – 9
• 2015 – 3
• 2011 – 4
• 2007 – 5
• 2003 – 7

Diligent Defence

It feels like there are almost two different French sides playing. On one hand, there is the loose, expansive team that can supply tries from anywhere, such as the worldie by Damian Penaud off the back of one loose kick by Ireland in Dublin. If the French identify a disjointed opposition line and they think it’s on then they will jouer from anywhere – 23 offloads (the most in this year’s Six Nations) attest to that.

On the other hand, there is the Shaun Edwards coached, none shall pass (except maybe the Irish), regimented defence built on hard work rather than talent that is undoubtedly the foundation of the side’s philosophy. When they have possession if they don’t like the look of the opposition defence; if their structure isn’t in place; if they’ve gone three phases and not progressed – the ball will be put in the air and there is an expectation that their own defensive prowess can win the ball back in a more advantageous position or unstructured situation.

That approach has lead to the French attempting by far the most tackles in the Championship so far – 445. Scotland are second on 413, having conceded a lot of possession and territory. With the Scots though that feels more like an anomaly they will want to fix rather than something that is in the DNA of their systems.

The French attack gets fewer opportunities than almost anyone else with just 243 carries (Scotland only have 222 due to that lack of possession, allied to a remarkable efficiency in scoring, the other members of the Six Nations average 287 carries across the first two rounds of action). France’s attack can do a lot with a little though. Despite that low number of carries they have more defenders beaten than any other side and average a broken tackle for every 3.2 runs (compared to 1 for every 3.8 carries by Scotland and 1 per 5.6 carries for the other nations).

Damian Penaud, Ethan Dumortier, Gael Fickou and Antoine Dupont are all in the top 10 for broken tackles in the Six Nations this year (number 1 for this stat is, of course, Duhan van der Merwe). That French backline spells danger for opponents unwary enough to allow them any time and space.

Miscellaneous

• France have a surprisingly low dominant tackle count of 17 – the fewest of any of the Six Nations. The French players with the most (2 each) are the contrasting pairing of (currently suspended) 152kg prop Uini Atonio and 95kg wing Damian Penaud.
• The French love to play off errors – Scotland themselves need to be ready to go when these opportunities arrive. Penaud has conceded 5 turnovers so far and half back pairing Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack have each made 5 handling errors.
• The petit general Dupont is the main French kicking option with more metres than his full back Thomas Ramos followed by the combined efforts of stand offs Ntamack and Mathieu Jalibert. That’s a contrast to Scotland where Finn Russell is the primary outlet for gaining metres from kicks, with Ben White at scrum half and then the full backs, Stuart Hogg and Blair Kinghorn, playing supporting roles.

Previous results

This will be the 12th time the two sides have met in Paris for a Six Nations’ match. The head to head looks like this from Scotland’s perspective:

Most recent meeting at the Stade de France:

France 23 – 27 Scotland

Significant stat
23 – the number of phases Scotland went through before Duhan van der Merwe crashed over for the try that clinched it. Truly – in fact, in the whole of the 21st century!

The Scottish Rugby Blog match report from that game is .

Officials

Referee: Nika Amashukeli (Georgia)
Assistant Referee 1: Karl Dickson (England)
Assistant Referee 2: Andrea Piardi (Italy)
TMO: Ben Whitehouse (Wales)

While Mr Amashukeli is one of the up-and-coming refs World Rugby are backing, his experiences with Scottish teams have been relatively rare so far. He took charge of Glasgow’s trip to the Bulls in the URC last season and Edinburgh’s Champions Cup game against Saracens in December. This will be the Men’s Test side’s first encounter with the Georgian official.

His are on the high side – particularly the pens where he averages around 25 per game in domestic action across the last two seasons. One of Scotland’s aims will be to keep the French out of their 22, so maintaining the decent discipline levels of the first couple of rounds and minimising penalties kicked to touch is likely to be crucial.

Part II of the preview, including the head to heads, will follow later in the week following the team announcement.

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* Prior to 1971 there was no head coach, with the captain leading the team.

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