Six Nations 2023: The Forwards Of The First Two Weeks

Most Scotland fans may have felt like two wins from the first two games was certainly very possible this year given the relative form and health of the participating nations pre tournament. Most Scotland fans would also have been more than aware that such creeping confidence more often than not just makes the inevitable losses more painful to bear.

Scotland have for once not disappointed and England and Wales have been dispatched, left behind as the hype train gathers pace. More difficult challenges lie ahead but let’s take this opportunity to take a look at some stats and analysis before we have to face derailment.

Similar to the post Autumn Nations article, the focus will again be on the forwards however this time players from all 6 Nations will be included which allows comparison of Scotland’s heroes with their peers. The criteria to get onto the charts is simply either starting a game or playing more than 45 minutes over the course of both games, so starters and replacements do feature.

There are quite a few players included so the analysis will be split into front rows, locks and back rows. The scope of this analysis will include tackles, carries and impacts on the game. I’d love to include the breakdown or the set piece however these stats don’t seem freely available. Of course at this early stage the statistical playing field isn’t really fair and 45 minutes is a low threshold for inclusion but there should still be some interesting insights.

Front Row

There is one very obvious call out when it comes to tackle stats in the front row, and that’s that with the exception of George Turner Scotland’s frontrow don’t miss many at all. Turner has been impressive over the course of both games and his 4 tackles missed from 23 attempts does put him in amongst a clutch of hookers in the middle of the chart. Zander Fagerson justifies his return to the side averaging an additional 8 tackles per 80 compared to the man he replaced WP Nel. Though Nel at 13 tackles per 80 minutes is no slouch either and both men haven’t missed any. Amongst other nations, Wales’ Francis and Thomas were both busy though over only 40 and 54 minutes respectively. The French front row also features prominently, as does Finlay Bealham who seems to be seizing his opportunity with Furlong unavailable.

On the other side of the ball in general Scotland’s lower possession stats don’t help their carries per 80 minute numbers though Pierre Schoeman defies that trend impressively averaging over 12 carries per 80. Again Zander Fagerson’s numbers are an improvement on Nel who is the least prolific carrier on the chart. George Turner is having a great and eye catching tournament and it would be fair to say he’s by some distance Scotland’s most effective carrier when it comes to metres made (Jack Dempsey does manage similar numbers though from less minutes).

Amongst the competition Ireland’s hookers have been very impressive ball in hand, perhaps reflecting carrying in different areas when compared to their props. And if anyone was in any doubt about what Ellis Genge offers then as the chart illustrates he’s been both extremely prolific getting his hands on the ball and consistently pretty effective to boot.

This chart is a bit busy but attempts to show both positive contributions with and without the ball. I’ve also left out cards for now. As mentioned Turner has been eye-catching so no surprise to see him lead the way for Scotland with contributions with and without the ball. Dan Sheehan backs up his carrying stats impressively having broken 6 tackles, a number matched only by Italy’s Fischetti. If we’re looking at the negative impacts then Andrew Porter has conceded an unimpressive number of penalties and Genge has had his share of contributions both good and bad as you’d expect from his all action style.

Locks

Where is Jonny Gray? He hasn’t actually played enough minutes to feature but in his absence big brother Richie and Grant Gilchrist have picked up the baton and both not only haven’t missed a tackle but additionally have been getting stuck in averaging on or above 15 tackles per 80 minutes each. France’s big men haven’t been as reliable in the tackle but are putting in some big numbers. If you’re looking for James Ryan he’s tucked in somewhere behind the Scottish pairing, both he and Beirne have been reasonably strong in defence though the latter may want to see his success rate above 90% before the end of the tournament. Fair to say for all the magic Scotland’s backs have provided that there is a trend appearing here and it’s the forwards effectiveness in defence providing the platform.

Scotland’s second row although impressive in defence features much less prominently ball in hand, Gilchrist has barely got his hands on the ball and Gray hasn’t got much go forward when he’s been in possession, though what need for metres gained when you can tip the ball on with such slick hands? Elsewhere Dafydd Jenkins provided an impressive improvement on Alun Wyn Jones and sits near Chessum, Ruzza and Flament though exceeds their carries per 80 rate. Tadhg Beirne is well known for his workrate and carries more than any other lock making reasonable ground too as have his team mates.

Both Gilchrist and Gray have supplied dominant tackles in defence with some bonus offloads in addition to minimising negative contributions. Not featured on the chart but Gilchrist has also stolen 2 lineouts, more than any other lock whilst Gray’s 12 lineouts won is exceeded only by Chessum (15) and Ruzza (13). The standout has to be Federico Ruzza though as in addition to being Italy’s go to at the lineout, he’s topping both the positive and negative contributions amongst locks but with 5 dominant tackles has most notably been robust in defence. Coupled with some very solid carrying numbers Ruzza is having a good tournament so far.

Back Rows

Crosbie has been brutal with ball in hand for Edinburgh this season but for Scotland it’s his defence which has been outstanding. Only England’s Jack Willis can top his tackles per 80 numbers with only Justin Tipuric and Jack Dempsey able to match his 100% success rate. Matt Fagerson’s workrate is always impressive and he’s contributed numbers not far off Crosbie though notably has also played every minute compared to Crosbie’s 97.

Now if you’re the Scottish backrow then you don’t really need to make many metres because you can just let Duhan van der Merwe do all the carrying however Scotland’s backrows are some way off the level of contribution the likes of Dombrandt, Doris and Negri have made in terms of workrate or Jelonch, Macalou and Tshiunza have offered in effectiveness. Fagerson does sit roughly in the middle towards the back of a pack including the likes of Aldritt and Ludlam. Italy’s Zuliani has been really useful indeed as well so far and it’s quite positive to see some strong individual performances from the Italians throughout the back 5.

Unsurprisingly given the impressive tackle stats Scotland’s flankers are contributing dominant tackles with Jamie Ritchie also up with Jac Morgan and Alex Dombrant for turnovers. Josh van der Flier has become well known for his carrying but has also been robust in defense with a seriously impressive 8 dominant tackles with Doris also pitching in with all sorts of positive contributions. As in the Autumn Jamie Ritchie has been unfortunate and racked up more negative contributions than any other Scot though in his defence has played every minute and as Scotland’s main turnover threat will attract more penalties.

Conclusion

Statistics at this stage are always going to be subject to small sample sizes and at least until everyone has played everybody else should be treated as indicative only. There are some interesting points for Scotland fans though, Scotland’s forward effort in defence is probably the best from amongst the 6 Nations, pretty much everyone from 1-8 is putting in serious numbers and isn’t missing many either. In terms of carrying I’d suggest the pack are carrying very little out wide in the channels are instead focusing on the hard yards in close where the likes of Schoeman and Turner are impressing and buying the space for the backline to excel in.

My plan will be to revisit these statistics at the end of the tournament where we’ll see if Scotland’s defensive statistics can survive Irish and French onslaughts and additionally see which of our players can hold their own statistically against their peers as individuals over all 5 games.

As always any and all feedback is welcome.

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