Italy v Scotland: Six Nations 2022, Match Preview pt I

KO 2.15 (3.15 local time) at Stadio Olimpico
Saturday 12th March 2022
Live on STV

At kick-off, it will be 8 years, 11 months and 25 days since Italy last won a home game in the Six Nations. Not since they turned over Ireland in the 2013 championship have the Azzurri tasted victory on their own turf.

Italy’s most recent home Six Nations’ win against each opponent:

• Ireland – 2013
• France – 2013
• Scotland – 2012
• Wales – 2007
• England – never

In the last three tournaments, the average score for Italy at the Stadio Olimpico is 5 – 38 including being held pointless twice – although Scotland’s 0 – 17 win (including a last minute converted try) in 2020 is the narrowest margin of defeat at home in that period.

There is more evidence that the Scots need to be wary and that the dark blues remain Italy’s best chance of breaking their barren streak. The only two occasions in the last 9 years that Italy have even collected a losing bonus point at home have both been against Scotland:

• 2014 – Scotland won by 1 point – Duncan Weir drop goal with 19 seconds remaining.
• 2018 – Scotland won by 2 points – Greig Laidlaw penalty with 84 seconds remaining.

Italy Scouting Report

Up Front Struggles

The contest in the forwards will be crucial. While the majority of tries scored against Italy have come from the backs, the platform has really been set by the success up front of the respective sides. In their three matches so far the metres gained with ball in hand by the packs have been:

• France 201m – 50m Italy
• Italy 90m – 230m England
• Ireland 360m – 83m Italy

On a cumulative basis, Italian forwards have made less than a third of the metres of their opponents. For a Scottish pack that has yet to make 200m+ in any game this season there is a real need to take this opportunity to get on the front foot and provide a backline that is replete with Lions the kind of platform they can really go on a tear from.

Equally the dark blues’ big men must match what the other sides have done and shut down the Azzurri’s eight, smothering them and stopping their go forward. The impact of that in the previous fixtures has been to limit the possession getting into the hands of Italy’s most dangerous weapon, Paolo Garbisi. The Montpellier stand off is capable of picking a defence apart – but only when he has the ball. In this tournament he averages just 11 passes per 80 minutes, compared to 31 per 80 for the other countries’ starting 10s. Scotland need to ensure the young pivot’s contribution remains as inconsequential as possible.

Lifted by the Lineout

Each one of Italy’s games so far have featured 30+ lineouts. By comparison, the Calcutta Cup match between Scotland and England is the only one of the six other fixtures to hit that mark. Dominating the air could have a disproportionate effect on Saturday if setpieces are again that frequent.

Remarkably, Italy managed to put in their best lineout showing of the Six Nations so far in their game against Ireland – a match during which they played for more than an hour without a hooker and with prop Ivan Nemer doing the throwing in!

Under normal circumstances, Federico Ruzza is the heavily used jumping option, pouching more catches (19) than anyone else in the tournament and miles ahead of his teammates – no other Italian has more than 5 takes. In theory that should allow Scotland to target the Azzurri’s primary jumper. It was much the same against France though when Cameron Woki was the focal point and Scotland failed to really get any kind of pressure on the opposition throw in.

The Scots will feel they need much more from this facet of the game having managed just two steals so far. While their own throwing in has been strong (42 out of 43 successful) what they have produced in attack from the lineout has been pretty disappointing so far. There have been frequent dropped balls and messed up mauls as well as an inability to consistently bring their strike plays to bear.

Miscellaneous

• Italy have played 214 minutes without a try since Tommaso Menoncello’s 5-pointer v France.
• Michele Lamaro has made and attempted more tackles than any player in the championship.
• The only Italian player to make 10+ tackles without a miss is Hame Faiva (16). The Azzurri could maybe have done with him missing at least one versus Ireland…
• Danilo Fischetti, Hame Faiva and Braam Steyn are all in the tournament’s top 10 for dominant tackles.
• There are six Italian forwards with 2 or more turnovers won. While Michele Lamaro might not play like a traditional ball hound at 7, Italy will have multiple threats chasing breakdown steals. Scotland’s ruck protection hasn’t been the best so far in this Six Nations and will need to improve if they are to test their hosts with multiple attacking phases.

Previous results

This will be the 12th time the two sides have met in Rome for a Six Nations’ match. The head to head looks like this from Scotland’s perspective:

L W L W L L L W W W W

Most recent meeting at the Stadio Olimpico:

Italy 0 – 17 Scotland

Significant stat
10 – the number of defenders beaten by Adam Hastings. Add in 2 clean breaks and there was a lot of space created by the snake-hipped stand off. The rest of the side was in on the act too, totalling 31 defenders beaten and 11 clean breaks. What was missing was the composure and efficiency to consistently finish off with scores from the chaos caused in the Italian defence. Another nervy afternoon awaits if Scotland are similarly wasteful this weekend.

The Scottish Rugby Blog match report from that game is here.

Officials

Referee: Luke Pearce (England)
Assistant Referee 1:  Andrew Brace (Ireland)
Assistant Referee 2: Craig Evans (Wales)
TMO: Stuart Terheege (England)

Mr Pearce is now among the very top rank of referees. With many of the old guard of the previous generation of whistlers having retired, he is well placed to challenge for the major appointments -potentially even the RWC final.

The English official only seems to be rolled out for Scotland matches when they take on Italy with this being his third such fixture in the last three years. The first was a bit of a riot from the Scots’ point of the view, the second a much better performance discipline wise. Hopefully, this is down to the dark blues having a better handle on what Mr Pearce is looking for and they can win the crime count this time round as well.

Scotland’s previous games with Mr Pearce in charge:

• 2019 – beat Italy (H)
  Penalties: 15 (For 4 – 11 Against)
  Cards: 1 YC (Simon Berghan)
• 2020 – beat Italy (A)
  Penalties: 19 (For 12 – 7 Against)
  Cards: none

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