Scotland’s Backs – where next on the road to RWC 2023?
Heading into the last World Cup, Scotland ended up caught somewhat in transition in the centres and back 3. After peaking in 2017 and 2018, the year of the World Cup itself was a definite step backwards. It was probably just a season too far for some personnel who had, until that point, been key to Scotland’s improvement to that stage.
Five of the current Scottish backline will hit 30 before the 2023 RWC kicks off and this is something that will be in the thoughts of the coaching staff. In the best-case scenario, these players will all still be at the top of their game in France but potential replacements need to be blooded and ready to go before then in case there is any drop off from the incumbents.
Half backs
Where Scotland stand:
9. Ali Price
30 years and 4 months at the start of RWC 2023
Has started 94% of Scotland’s games since the last World Cup
10. Finn Russell
30 years and 11 months at the start of RWC 2023
Has started 44% of Scotland’s games since the last World Cup
What could happen in the next 20 months:
The Prussell bromance should (hopefully!) still be within its peak years as the 2023 tournament kicks off. The slightly surprising – but very welcome – decision of Ali Price to sign a new contract with Glasgow at least reduces the headache of managing game time for one of the national side’s star half backs. It seems unlikely that Finn Russell will tread the well-worn path of players returning to Glasgow though and, while playing club rugby in France should be good prep for an RWC in the same country, fans and coaches alike may feel some anxiety about just how much time he spends on the pitch in the next year and a half.
Russell’s absence from the 2020 Six Nations did at least give Adam Hastings the opportunity to show he can step in, even if no-one can fully replace Finn. At scrum-half, a summer off in 2022 for Price should finally give opportunities for others to take on the starting 9 role for a three-Test series against Argentina. Jamie Dobie, George Horne and Ben Vellacott should all travel which will provide a titanic battle for the jersey.
Centres
Where Scotland stand:
12. Sam Johnson
30 years and 3 months at the start of RWC 2023
Has started 67% of Scotland’s games since the last World Cup
13. Chris Harris
32 years and 9 months at the start of RWC 2023
Has started 78% of Scotland’s games since the last World Cup
What could happen in the next 20 months:
Since just before the last World Cup in Japan it has been rare indeed for Scotland to take to the field without Chris Harris in the outside centre channel. The British and Irish Lion has been a key component in Steve Tandy’s systems and a transformation that has seen the Scottish defence become one of the stingiest in the Six Nations.
The Gloucester player will be just shy of 33 come the end of the tournament in France though and how long he can continue this period at the peak of his career will be exercising the minds of the coaching staff over the next two years. Scotland simply don’t have a like-for-like replacement waiting in the wings for Harris.
While it might not be the position he has featured in more recently, the rugby intelligence and physicality of Kyle Steyn would seem the closest the dark blues are going to get. The Warriors’ player might not be the uber-defender that Harris is but he would offset that by adding to Scotland’s attacking threat in the 13 spot.
An outside bet to compete for this crucial position in the Scottish backline could well be Matt Currie, a Scotland u20 and Academy centre who has already made his first team debut for Edinburgh. France 2023 might come a fraction too early for a player who will be just 22 at that point and has yet to make his Test debut, but if he gets some heavy involvement in the 2022 Summer tour there would still be time for him to be embedded in the midfield.
The other big question that might need answered is the composition of a pairing to get the very best out of what is likely to be Finn Russell’s final shot at a Rugby World Cup. Would a second playmaker (in the mould of Cameron Redpath) free the nonconformist standoff of some of the decision-making responsibilities? Might a more muscular presence at inside centre (for example the barely tested Sione Tuipulotu) give Finn the kind of dump-off option that he hasn’t had since Alex Dunbar left the scene? Or does Sam Johnson remain the top choice as someone who combines a little bit of both possibilities?
These are all things that need tried out within the next 12 months or so if the run in to the World Cup itself is to be more about tweaking a settled side.
Back 3
Where Scotland stand:
11. Duhan van der Merwe
28 years and 3 months at the start of RWC 2023
Has started 67% of Scotland’s games since the last World Cup
14. Darcy Graham
26 years and 2 months at the start of RWC 2023
Has started 56% of Scotland’s games since the last World Cup
15. Stuart Hogg
31 years and 2 months at the start of RWC 2023
Has started 89% of Scotland’s games since the last World Cup
What could happen in the next 20 months:
How can Stuart Hogg be managed through to his third World Cup campaign? As it stands all Scotland can do is give him next summer off and rotate for a couple of lesser matches between Autumn 2022 and the RWC warm-ups. Beyond that, it’s likely to be full noise for Hoggy – unless, of course, he returns north to Glasgow for season 2022/23. It’s something that seemed almost certain when he left but the full-back appears to have really settled in at Exeter such that finishing his career in Warriors’ colours might not pan out. From the SRU’s point of view it would make a great deal of sense though.
There’s no doubting the attacking potency of Scotland’s wing “twins”, Duhan van der Merwe and Darcy Graham. Their try-scoring records stand up there with pretty much anyone who has pulled on the dark blue jersey in the last 90 years. What the incumbents for the previous two World Cups (Sean Maitland and Tommy Seymour) were able to provide was a bit more defensive and aerial solidity. More than that, Maitland’s ability to slot seamlessly in at full-back freed up Hogg to fill his full potential at getting heavily involved in thick of the action.
As it stands, the likes of Kyle Steyn, Rufus McLean and Blair Kinghorn are providing really good backup options but are unlikely to break the first-choice duo’s stranglehold on the starting lineup unless they have a dip in form. If there is one current player who looks like he might fill the Maitland role it’s Cole Forbes. He has the potential to be Hoggy’s long-term successor in the 15 shirt but for now, if given the opportunity against Argentina next summer, he could be the player that could just shift the balance in the back 3 to a little bit more solidity without losing too much in terms of attacking flair and try-scoring.
Key players for the three Test series against Argentina in the summer
Ben Vellacott;
Jamie Dobie;
Kyle Steyn;
Matt Currie;
Cole Forbes.
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