Wakefield Trinity • What now for fans watching ? - Covid chat
MatthewTrin wrote:
I mentioned this problem on page 17 of this thread.
Coronavirus testing: What is a false positive? Key message for the RFL
If you tested 1,000 people at random for Covid-19 in early September, for example, data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) infection study suggests you should have expected one of them to actually have the virus. With a false positive rate of 0.8% - a figure used by Ms Hartley-Brewer and within the broad range of what we think might be the actual rate for community testing - you would get eight false positives. So in that context, it's true that roughly 90% of positives would be false.
The RFL announced today of the 589 tests on players, match officials and staff there were 10 positive results. So with an FPR of 0.8%, in theory around five (or even up to nine) cases could be false positives. I'd be curious to know if any of them have symptoms and whether players are allowed a best out of three positive/negative test result. For the survival of the game it's vital the testing is accurate by only allowing people showing symptoms within the game to take a test.
Covid deaths three times higher than flu and pneumonia
Between January and August 2020, there were 48,168 deaths due to Covid-19. Only 394 were due to flu.
Deaths from flu have been particularly low this year.
Brilliant news on the low death figures for the flu, it's good to know that last years winter flu vaccine worked so effectively, it must be the first time in a long time!
Covid came in at the end of the flu season, so maybe, those numbers were relatively low.
You will recall the many graphs illustrating "excess" deaths, which, far from overplaying the covid numbers, seemed to be a little on the low side.
Having said that there will certainly be some cases which are put down to covid where other factors are involved, many, many.
However, we still come back to where we are.
Should the plan be to go all out for "herd immunity", which could risk overwhelming the NHS or, risk further significant damage to the economy and try to keep the lid on covid cases.
It's worth remembering that nobody has seen the effects of the "new" virus through the most difficult winter months and there is a very good reason why the Nightingale hospitals were left "ready to go".
Personally, I cant wait until things really start to return to how they were. Overseas trips, watching Trin and most importantly meeting up with friends. Sadly, I think there is a whole load of grief still to come, which could make the "first wave" look like a warm up.
Statistics: Posted by wrencat1873 — Thu Oct 08, 2020 7:56 pm — Replies 318 — Views 11302