SPORTING LISBON DATA DIVE

Arsenal are in the Champions League quarter finals for the third season in a row. Say what you will, but that is pretty good stuff from the boys. Plenty of well-funded teams bounce into the Champions League and back out. Once you hit three quarters in a row, you become part of the scene again, and it feels good… especially because I really did struggle to imagine our ownership group showing enough interest to bring us back from the banter years which seemed to go on forever.

Sporting Lisbon is no easy test. Do not, under any circumstances, think that this will be the same as the 5-1 spanking we handed out to them last season. Lisbon have been very up and down with their away form in the Champions League this season, but at home? Monsters. They’ve won all their games at Estádio José Alvalade. No draws. No losses. I am not lying for god’s sake, just trust me for once.

Their numbers overall in the comp this year are good. They average 2.2 goals per game, they’ve won 6, lost 3, and drawn 1. Their biggest scalp? PSG with a 2-1 victory. Their four other home games were a little bit Almaty if you get what I’m saying. The away form brings a little more light to my life, beaten by Bayern, Napoli, and Bodø/Glimt.

The big difference between the two teams is how they defend. Arsenal have an outrageous record, almost Italian-like, conceding just 0.5 a game, where our Portuguese counterparts have been shipping 1.4 a game. This game will have goals, but maybe not that many in this first leg.

That said, we will get chances if our first team shows up like they have been on the regular this season. PSG unleashed 28 shots when they travelled there, but notably, only created 1.25 xG.

You feel like this game could be a story of two strikers. Luis Suarez, the heir apparent to Viktor Gyokeres, has been having a good season, his two goals against PSG won them the game at home. For Sporting this season, he has 33 goals, 5 coming from the Champions League.

I’m using a professional tool called Gradient to get my data, I like it because it goes a layer deeper when analysing a player. It doesn’t just measure a pass, it measures the quality on a grading map, so you get a deeper context of how well someone has played.

It’s very interesting to look at the data of Gyokeres in the Champions League, where he’s objectively a better player because he’s given more space to lean in on his superpowers. An example of this is his tackle resistance, which he’s ranked 12th in the Champions League this season, his dribbling he’s ranked 11th, and his ball carrying he’s ranked top 20. He’s still very middle of the road with duel winning, sitting mid-table between 91 strikers at 41, and interestingly he ranks only 37th for shooting in the comp, but he’s ahead of players like Dembélé, and even Lewandowski this season. But, overall, he’s ranked the joint 8th best striker in Europe this season with another Big Vic… but one with a C, it’s Osimhen.

This is how he ranked for dribbling and shooting on a gradient chart.

We won’t get into it today, but let me tell you, he’s not ranked there in the Premier League and if you think I’ve lost my edge here… Viktor is ranked 94th of 98 when it comes to touch in the UCL.

But let’s roll with positivity here, Europe is where he feels at home, and nowhere is going to feel more homely than going back to the club that birthed his career. He’ll no doubt be feeling thankful, but hopefully, he’ll be happy to plunge a knife into the hearts of those fans that loved him. We haven’t always had the best returns from our players. Kai hasn’t always been good against Chelsea, Madueke was dreadful at the same place earlier in the year, and we saw Dekkers have a nightmare against West Ham. We need some savagery, the same sort we saw from Eze.

I have a feeling in my bones for Big Vik, this feels like his evening. Mikel said in the presser that his season would be defined by what happens from this point… that’s laying down the gauntlet, let’s see what he’s got.

There was plenty of blessed news from Arteta in the pre-match presser. We’re basically in a situation where we’ll have nearly all our players ready for the weekend’s game. No Saka and Timber for sure tomorrow. But we will welcome Declan, Big Gabi, and Trossard back to the squad for the Champions League. Didn’t hear too much about Hincapie, but assume he’s more likely for the weekend.

There aren’t really that many selection headaches. If we don’t have Timber or Hincapie for Sporting, we have weaker full backs. Ben White needs to regain his focus after some very poor outings of late and we need a big game from Calafiori who can look cumbersome against good wingers. If we’re going to be got at tomorrow, it’s because we don’t have good old-fashioned one vs one monsters on either side. Expect to see Sporting try and isolate our full backs… or, just ping balls over the top because there are no full backs, a little bit like we saw at the Southampton game. Sporting are ranked 14th for line-breaking passes in the Champions League this season with a 71% completion rate. Arsenal are ranked 27th for the same stat, with a higher completion rate, as you’d expect… my point is Sporting take more risks than Arsenal.

Another interesting point to note with the Sporting data is they looooove to dribble with the ball.

They rank 2nd in the Champions League for dribbles attempted.

They rank 3rd for dribbles completed.

53% of their dribbles deliver outcomes ABOVE expectation. Madrid sit above them. Spurs are actually number one here for some reason.

Point being… we’re playing a team that will take high-risk moves to gain an advantage and if they isolate slow players that are off their game, we could find ourselves in a spot of bother.

Will Arsenal take the biggest risk of the evening and give Max Dowman a start? Doubtful. Not sure why though. Madueke looked injured when he came on for an average Southampton cameo and Max looked electric and our best player by a mile. Surely a Champions League game will be kinder to him than a Premier League game? Keep Madueke fit for the run-in. Give max the keys. That’s all I’

I am fully expecting Arsenal to draw this game. Back-to-back cup losses doesn’t indicate we’re about to witness some free-flowing football for the ages. That said, I could also see exactly the opposite of what I’m feeling. David Raya was sat in the presser and he did not give one f*ck about the League Cup final. I spoke with Sophie about this on Highbury Squad where I was grilled by a friend.

You don’t want players dwelling on poor results like fans. If they are banging the table, they aren’t focused. You want players relaxed, in good spirits, thinking only about positive things… because that’s where the magic is at.

I’m not really sure about the pen stuff that was going on at the training ground. I see things like that and sometimes wonder if players feel as silly as we feel watching that sort of corporate nonsense trust exercise. But, I’m not there, I don’t know what the thinking behind it all was, I would just prefer not to see those sorts of things on the internet before a massive game after we’ve lost two cup games on the bounce. Not sure we need the gimmicks at this stage of the season.

Still, let’s end on a positive. We have plenty of fit players returning. We’re playing a team good enough to force focus, but weak enough that if we play our best we will win. It is the best draw we could hope for. The prize is a semi final. The fourth in our Champions League history. That’d mean half our Champions League semis will have come under Arteta. If you’re not excited about that prospect, I can’t help you, you need to grab a breakfast beer and get with the rest of the fan base.

So… that’s me done. Enjoy the game. Check out the before the whistle content. Have a grand old time and we’ll see you later tonight! BIG LOVE x