Atlético Madrid’s Estadio Metropolitano – Source: Unsplash

You always know what you are going to get from Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid. Staunch defence, bags of talent in attack, and a squad of players willing to run through brick walls for their manager. 

Throughout El Cholo’s 15 years in charge at the Metropolitano, Atleti have risen to become Spain’s third team, narrowly behind giants Real Madrid and Barcelona, but a million miles clear of the rest of the chasing pack. They have occasionally upset the odds, claiming the La Liga title in both 2014 and 2021, as well as reaching two UEFA Champions League finals. However, they are usually a surefire bet to both lose to the two superpowers ahead of them in the standings and beat the rest of the teams in Spain. 

This term, however, Simeone’s side is uncharacteristically unpredictable. They thumped cross-city rivals Real 5-3 earlier in the season, while their last two Copa del Rey clashes resulted in a 5-0 victory away at Real Betis and a 4-0 destruction of Barcelona. How did they follow those results up? Losing 1-0 at home to Betis in the league and shockingly suffering a 3-0 loss away at relegation-threatened Rayo Vallecano. 

Such unpredictability is uncharted territory at the Metropolitano. But could it lead them to unexpected glory this season? 

La Liga Disaster 

The one place that hasn’t been positively affected by Atletico’s rollercoaster of a campaign is La Liga. Usually, Simeone’s side will push Real and Barca all the way, remaining somewhat within touching distance up until the latter months of the campaign, before falling by the wayside. This year, though, their title challenge never got off the ground. 

The recent 3-0 disaster against Rayo saw them slip to fourth place in the table, a mighty 15 points behind the league leaders from Catalonia. As such, it’s no surprise that online betting sites have written off their title hopes. The latest odds from websites such as the popular Ozoon sports betting outlet make Barcelona the 4/5 favourites to reign as Spanish champions, with Real an even money narrow favourite to overthrow their greatest rivals. Atletico? Way out at 500/1 and given zero hope whatsoever. 

And let’s face it, it comes as no surprise. Defeats to the likes of Espanyol and Rayo Vallecano are going to implode a season, while winning just three away games all year certainly doesn’t help. The worst thing, though, is that it renders the thumping win against Real earlier in the campaign completely irrelevant… In the league at least. 

Knockout Football Provides Welcome Respite 

But while Atletico’s inconsistency has nuked their La Liga hopes, their performances in this season’s knockout competitions have been nothing short of spectacular. Los Rojiblancos have all but secured their first Copa del Rey final appearance in 13 years, with a 4-0 drubbing of Barcelona in the first leg of the semifinal surely proving too big a deficit for even the mighty Blaugrana to overturn. Sure, the two sides have to do battle in the Camp Nou, but Simeone will almost certainly revert to his famously defensive style in an attempt to shut out the Catalonians and seal that final berth. 

Should he be successful in that quest, then either Athletic Bilbao or Real Sociedad will await in the final, with the two Basque rivals also doing battle across two legs with a spot in the final on the line. The problem for Atletico, however, is that they will no doubt be the favourites in the final, no matter which of those two sides makes it through. And it is when they have been the overwhelming favourite that they have struggled this term. 

Atletico have dropped points in no fewer than 16 games already this term. In 12 of them, they were the favourites. If that four-goal lead over Barcelona ultimately sees them through to the final, then they will have to find a way to live up to the expectation of being the favourite in a Copa del Rey final and getting the job done. 

Upsetting the Champions League Odds

Atletico are a rank 40/1 outsider in the Champions League this season, and considering the calibre of opposition they are poised to come up against, their lowly billing isn’t unexpected. Arsenal are the favourites, and they have already beaten Simeone’s side 4-0 in the League Phase. Bayern Munich and Manchester City, as well as both Barcelona and Real Madrid, are also thought of as contenders. Ironically, Atletico’s biggest test is the one coming next. 

Los Rojiblancos will face Belgian outfit Club Brugge in the knockout playoff round, and the contest is exactly the type of game that Atleti have stumbled in this term. The Blauw-Zwart are languishing in third place in the unheralded Belgian Pro League and are hardly in intimidating form. According to the reputable TransferMarkt, Atletico’s squad is worth over twice that of their opponents and are clear favourites to progress to the Round of 16. 

As such, expect Brugge to emerge victorious in a logic-defying night, right? It’s certainly possible. But if Atleti do progress, they will then fancy their chances of beating anybody, providing they avoid an easy draw. 

Simeone, so far this term, has managed to ignite his players for the big games – see those wins over Real and Barca. You can bet your bottom dollar that he will do the same should a Bayern or Arsenal visit a raucous Metropolitano under the lights. Brugge or someone similar? We’re not so convinced.